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Retail investor trading orgy -- this time they may be RIGHT!


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:39 PM

NO.
 

Another measure of retail traders' zeal for this market. TD Ameritrade is seeing a surge in activity at the "Education Center" portion of its website, with lots of people wanting to learn how to trade options. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/options-are-now-all-the-rage-for-bored-day-traders-locked-inside?srnd=premium&sref=vuYGislZ
 

One more for the history books: Data from Robinhood shows nearly a TRIPLING in activity this year – the # of positions in $SPX stocks rose from 4 million (at the start of 2020) to 12 million today. Did ALL these new investors successfully "buy the bottom"? What if it wasn't?



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:40 PM

It's a retail investor trading orgy. The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd.


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:40 PM

Volume spiked in March and is now falling. SPY's volume is now -64% below its 3 month average, while the S&P is under its 200 dma When this happened over the past 20 years, U.S. stocks ALWAYS pulled back over the next 2 months, sometimes *very sharply*


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:41 PM

Possible end of month rally  - it could be a really huge SPIKE UP - but BIG decline not too far away


 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:42 PM

The dash towards growth & tech: Russell Growth/Value ratio's 14 month RSI right now is among the *HIGHEST* readings ever. This only happened: Feb 1980: stocks crashed next month in March 1980 Dec 1999: near end of dot-com bubble July 2015: stocks crashed next month in Aug 2015


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:43 PM

51 SPY PUTS

 

one ES LONG

 

flat Crude and everything else

Had a CRUDE PUT option order but not filled



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:44 PM

Over the past 3 days, options traders have bought (or sold) twice as many equity calls as puts. The S&P 500 is still below its 200-day average. This kind of (potential) optimism during a downtrend hasn't happened since November 2002.
 
As the NASDAQ pushes higher towards all-time highs, sentiment towards tech stocks is EXTREMELY optimistic. The QQQ Optimism Index's 2 month average is at the *highest* level since 2012. Doesn't bode well for tech stocks here


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 12:48 PM

Hadn't seen this before:

 

"The big worry is over whether the Fed can throw enough liquidity at the financial markets to overwhelm the economic damage from the Covid Crash.  This week’s chart says that the Fed is prevailing at the moment. "

https://www.mcoscill..._bond_a-d_line/

 

hy-bond_a-d_line_may2020.gif



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:25 PM

SUMMATION

 

https://www.marketin...summation-index



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:27 PM

Have a great weekend! Week 6 of chop in $SPX - this is setting up for a trend leg. My plan next week: The Last 6 weeks built a perfect "megaphone" pattern. 2975 breakout targets 3030 then 3130 where Id short. Warning though - if 2870 goes first, we drop to 2750 megaphone support
 

Nice chart at his twitter account. I used to be bale to cut & paste charts in posts but recently not able to