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Retail investor trading orgy -- this time they may be RIGHT!


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:28 PM

Don't know this will have a big negative effect on the market but another 2 or 3 Bankruptcy filings may...

 

Hertz Files For Bankruptcy, Stunning US Automakers As ...
Forbes-4 hours ago
Car rental companies feel the symptoms of the coronavirus. Getty. Late last night, Hertz (NYSE: HTZ) filed for bankruptcy. The restructuring has ...


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:29 PM

Argentina, again!  
 

 
 


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:33 PM

FWIW

The #MysteryBroker: Defensive/growth/Covid-beneficiary stocks too crowded. He's playing for a lasting comeback for value, saying "Cyclical value stocks are valued as if the health crisis is here to stay for many years." He disagrees, believes in consumer revival/reopening upside.
The #MysteryBroker notes the Value Line Appreciation Potential indicator suggests multi-year double-digit returns for small/mid-cap stocks. Not saying the S&P is off to the races. While a retest of lows is now "off the table" sees the resistance at recent highs, but "buy dips."
 
Finally, the standard disclaimer on
#MysteryBroker stuff: He's a source I've quoted for more than a decade since my time at Barron's; is a real person; is not me; is not someone whose name you'd know. I provide the updates as I get them mostly because people ask for them.


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:34 PM

WOW

 

 
Moderna's chief financial officer and chief medical officer executed options and sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on Monday and Tuesday, SEC filings reviewed by CNN Business show


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 01:37 PM

Positive spin on this could be: it's at the worst or near it so much upside potential...

 

 
 
R5KrXD4d_bigger.jpeg
 
Existing home sales -17.8% in April, largest monthly drop since July 2010 (which was expiration of homebuyer tax credit) ... sales’ annualized pace of 4.33m is lowest since September 2011


#16 Darris

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 08:11 PM

Here is a little data on the retail orgy being seen the last few weeks.  The number of contracts traded are increasing alot, but the other metrics are not.  All premium collected, spent, or booked is totaled below.  The premium per contract is about equal for both puts and calls.  Overall, Puts still trade at a mild historical premium.  This is only for the equity OCC published data for the 3 Retail/customer classifications based on number of contracts.  I think the TDAmeritrade learning center is convincing them that they get more bang for their Buck/Margin if they trade options, LOL.  Premium for all Call buy to open contracts was 6.5 billion this week, and 3.7 Billion for the less than 10 contract category.

 

Date …........ SPX CLS …....... All Prem
1/3/2020 ….. 3234.85 ….. 14,123,459,066 
1/10/2020 ….. 3265.35 ….. 20,904,949,428 
1/17/2020 ….. 3329.62 ….. 22,889,056,160 
1/24/2020 ….. 3295.47 ….. 17,183,544,325 
1/31/2020 ….. 3225.52 ….. 21,829,752,768 
2/7/2020 ….. 3327.71 ….. 37,288,623,548 
2/14/2020 ….. 3380.16 ….. 24,309,755,350 
2/21/2020 ….. 3337.75 ….. 22,514,019,327 
2/28/2020 ….. 2954.22 ….. 33,541,915,876 
3/6/2020 ….. 2972.37 ….. 27,195,846,295 
3/13/2020 ….. 2711.02 ….. 39,880,587,221 
3/20/2020 ….. 2304.92 ….. 39,734,836,827 
3/27/2020 ….. 2541.47 ….. 24,894,059,967 
4/3/2020 ….. 2488.65 ….. 17,501,820,215 
4/10/2020 ….. 2789.82 ….. 15,543,680,145 
4/17/2020 ….. 2874.56 ….. 30,165,015,027 
4/24/2020 ….. 2836.74 ….. 23,099,430,420 
5/1/2020 ….. 2830.71 ….. 26,313,827,598 
5/8/2020 ….. 2929.80 ….. 23,093,299,750 
5/15/2020 ….. 2863.70 ….. 24,093,394,441 
5/22/2020 ….. 2955.45 ….. 24,840,954,413 


#17 CLK

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 08:29 PM

51 SPY PUTS

 

one ES LONG

 

flat Crude and everything else

Had a CRUDE PUT option order but not filled

 

 

I thought the puts were for a long term hold, but you regularly take profits in them, I thought that was what the ES hedge was for, to pay for the puts so you could "invest" with them, unless you think the downside is not as for sure as you had thought.



#18 Darris

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Posted 23 May 2020 - 08:39 PM

By the way, if you were really paying attn to option volume, the FB move last week was given WELL in advance.

 

Date-FB …... Tot Calls …... Tot Puts …... Call2PutRatio …... FB-cls
5/11/2020 …... 186,714 …... 128,314 …... 1.46 …............... 213.18
5/12/2020 …... 229,178 …... 149,274 …... 1.54 …............... 210.1
5/13/2020 …... 291,506 …... 277,224 …... 1.05 …............... 205.1
5/14/2020 …... 238,666 …... 171,718 …... 1.39 ….............. 206.81
5/15/2020 …... 346,178 …... 217,028 …... 1.60 ….............. 210.88
5/18/2020 …... 299,948 …... 120,824 …... 2.48 ….............. 213.19
5/19/2020 …... 919,142 …... 234,340 …... 3.92 ….............. 216.88
5/20/2020 …... 1,461,180 …... 545,810 …... 2.68 ….......... 229.97
5/21/2020 …... 1,212,942 …... 468,062 …... 2.59 ........…... 231.39
5/22/2020 …... 984,240 …... 372,876 …... 2.64 …............. 234.91


#19 dTraderB

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Posted 24 May 2020 - 03:57 PM

 

51 SPY PUTS

 

one ES LONG

 

flat Crude and everything else

Had a CRUDE PUT option order but not filled

 

 

I thought the puts were for a long term hold, but you regularly take profits in them, I thought that was what the ES hedge was for, to pay for the puts so you could "invest" with them, unless you think the downside is not as for sure as you had thought.

 

I open an ES long when the PUTS have gained some profits, criteria is 1/2 or 1%  from swing daily high or daily high with at least 50 SPY total points from the high. 
I take profits from PUTS if I have accumulated more than 40 or 50 and the market is not going down as much or as fast s I want; also if the market indicates a reversal after 2 or 3% down. 
Also, I take profits if I want to roll PUTS from one month to the other....

And, I may take profits on some PUTS and losses on others if I think there is high probability of a big UP reversal; I try to cut losses and close positions, and buy CALLS.  I some cases, especially when I hold QQQ puts and the market is moving up quickly, I trade NQ with bigger position sizes e.g. 8 to 10 lots (scaling in 4-2-2 or 4-3-3 and scaling out). I try not to be shaken out of PUTS or CALLS by daytrading the ETF in the opposite direction. And, I try to hold an overnight  long or short ES in the opposite direction of my options. Basically, I do not sit with OPTIONS and watch them take big hits, and I also buy deep in the money options at least two expiration periods away and roll them if I want to hold on for much longer. 
You got to know the option markers and also be confident in your trading strategies, and you must be prepared to cut losses and move on to another trade. 
 



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 24 May 2020 - 04:00 PM

Mainstream media is reporting on WALL ST

 

 

Street’s Reckless Gamble on Bad Debt

https://www.newyorke...ble-on-bad-debt