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$NYUD: 20 year record LOW. Seems potentially bullish


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#11 Darris

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 11:54 AM

These were the 3 changes that I was aware of earlier in the week that would be changing in the SPX.  The 3 adds had like 30x or more increase in volume on Friday and were all down somewhat hard.  Similar to deletes. There may have been other factors involved for all 505 issues since a rebalance also means they change the contribution weighting for each issue included.  For example, if Apple is high it may drop some and a lower tier component may rise, but I am not familiar with the exact process.  I was just pointing out that the Quad Witch and a delayed rebalance from 1st Qtr added to total volume traded.  I would guess if we looked at all the SPX components on Friday, the final 1 minute bars would show big spikes.  TYL one of the adds shows this with more than half the days trading volume in the last minute.

 

 add .....del
sp TYL HOG
sp BIO JWN
sp TDY ADS


#12 gannman

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 12:05 PM

https://www.sentimen...e-buying-binge/


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#13 Darris

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 12:12 PM

That buying binge data was for last week.  This week it dropped to 49%.  FYI, but still high.



#14 da_cheif

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 01:18 PM

WSJ has the same numbers.

 

https://www.wsj.com/...ks/marketsdiary

 

TRIN only 1.39....but MASSIVE volume overall.

 

Not quite record volume, but big down volume spikes "usually" indicative of at least a short term low, and some times a major low. I have highlighted some of the bigger Down Vol spikes over the past few years.

 

But sometimes....it is volume off a top, after a rally attempt after a top has just failed, and down vol spikes have led to nasty declines.

 

I am using the hourly 900s on RUT Trannies, Dow, and NYA as my guide post as to which this may be.....3 of the 4 closed below the hourly 900 on Friday, but Dow managed to hold just above.

Trannies and NYA had particularly nasty looking rejections right at the 900. Until those rejections are overcome by bulls, bears are still controlling the post Davey Daytrader Tri-Star action as of Friday Close.

 

IF Dow and RUT join in heartily with big red action back below the hourly 900, then bearish case will get stronger. And if SPX were to take out its 900 at 3K, even stronger yet.

But if we break hard to the upside on Monday after this big Down Vol spike, bears are likely toast for some time to come, as at that point, all the majors indexes will have broken back above the hourly 900.

VERY pivotal action likely over next few days...

 

So whichever way we break on Monday may tell us whether perhaps a major low....or volume off a top after the rebound rally (after all those Tri-Stars we saw recently) has just failed, and Wave 3 down is on the way...

 

Sep 2014 was one that led to pretty nasty decline after the Down Vol spike

 

nya.png

 

 

 

 

 

massive volume always the result of quad witching expiration eh?