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$NYUD: 20 year record LOW. Seems potentially bullish


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 June 2020 - 09:34 PM

If the Stockcharts number today is correct, today's $NYUD number (Advance-Decline Volume) was much lower than the August 8, 2011 "Black Monday" reading when the US (-6.7%) and global stock markets crashed following the Friday night credit rating downgrade by Standard and Poor's of the United States sovereign debt from AAA, or "risk free", to AA+.

"Aug 8, 2011 - Investors lose a trillion in one day. Broad index of U.S. stocks posts biggest drop since 2008, wiping out a big chunk of Americans' savings."

 

But...whooda thought...?:

Aug 10, 2011 - Stocks fluctuated wildly after an announcement by the Fed, first shedding the day's gains, then rising sharply as the market headed toward its close.

 



#2 Dex

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Posted 19 June 2020 - 09:38 PM

wow!

 

https://stockcharts....id=p49674578845


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#3 risktaker

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 12:53 AM

Thanks, it is the closing number that is off the charts. We are used to having an end of day support.

http://schrts.co/gejxdqWK

#4 K Wave

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 08:33 AM

WSJ has the same numbers.

 

https://www.wsj.com/...ks/marketsdiary

 

TRIN only 1.39....but MASSIVE volume overall.

 

Not quite record volume, but big down volume spikes "usually" indicative of at least a short term low, and some times a major low. I have highlighted some of the bigger Down Vol spikes over the past few years.

 

But sometimes....it is volume off a top, after a rally attempt after a top has just failed, and down vol spikes have led to nasty declines.

 

I am using the hourly 900s on RUT Trannies, Dow, and NYA as my guide post as to which this may be.....3 of the 4 closed below the hourly 900 on Friday, but Dow managed to hold just above.

Trannies and NYA had particularly nasty looking rejections right at the 900. Until those rejections are overcome by bulls, bears are still controlling the post Davey Daytrader Tri-Star action as of Friday Close.

 

IF Dow and RUT join in heartily with big red action back below the hourly 900, then bearish case will get stronger. And if SPX were to take out its 900 at 3K, even stronger yet.

But if we break hard to the upside on Monday after this big Down Vol spike, bears are likely toast for some time to come, as at that point, all the majors indexes will have broken back above the hourly 900.

VERY pivotal action likely over next few days...

 

So whichever way we break on Monday may tell us whether perhaps a major low....or volume off a top after the rebound rally (after all those Tri-Stars we saw recently) has just failed, and Wave 3 down is on the way...

 

Sep 2014 was one that led to pretty nasty decline after the Down Vol spike

 

nya.png

 

 

 

 

 


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#5 CLK

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 08:34 AM

The cumulative version is more important, which looks like May, still looking for a C wave down Monday to finish this FOMC correction.

 

http://schrts.co/tPmCmfzf



#6 CLK

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 08:39 AM

Nasdaq made a new high. Wave 2 may never exceed the origin of wave 1. Therefore, this cannot be a 

a wave 3 down starting now.

 

http://www.bata4u.co...lliottwave.html



#7 K Wave

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 09:10 AM

Nasdaq made a new high. Wave 2 may never exceed the origin of wave 1. Therefore, this cannot be a 

a wave 3 down starting now.

 

http://www.bata4u.co...lliottwave.html

OK,  but could be divergent double top on Naz (weekly) for a temporary top, while the laggards could still easily be looking at wave 2 tops with those Ugly Tri-Stars that printed all over the place.

 

Wont take a whole lot to turn things back to bullish, but until that ACTUALLY happens, bears are still in control post Tri-Star as you will see from the hourly charts posted below from weakest to strongest

 

DJT

 

djt.png

 

NYA

 

nya.png

 

RUT

 

rut.png

 

DJI

 

dji.png

 

 

And lastly SPX...still looking bullish above 3K. But IF that big pivot were to fail, as other weaker indexes pull away from their 900s downside, would likely not be a good thing for bulls.

If this one lifts off on Monday, and the weaker ones break the important Friday pivots upside, then bears dead.

 

spx.png


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#8 CLK

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 09:29 AM

Yes, I guess it's possible to have a mixed market as IWM has done nothing the last year.

I think still it would be tough to see below 2000 on SPX with the worst of the pandemic and economy 

already taken place. These FOMC corrections are nearly 90%, the last one was an abc, so I expect the same for this one.

 

Only Jan., Oct. and Dec. meetings last year failed to be a top, this year, even the March meeting SPX fell another 200 points before the low. The rest of the year, I expect the July and September meetings to be a top, the November and December meetings probably not.


Edited by CLK, 20 June 2020 - 09:30 AM.


#9 Darris

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 10:54 AM

Apparently the SPX cancelled the 1st Qtr rebalance and the 1st one this year occurred Friday. Russell rebalance this coming Friday. 

  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/trading-could-get-wacky-friday-because-of-some-technical-stock-market-circumstances.html



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 June 2020 - 11:27 AM

Apparently the SPX cancelled the 1st Qtr rebalance and the 1st one this year occurred Friday. Russell rebalance this coming Friday. 

  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/trading-could-get-wacky-friday-because-of-some-technical-stock-market-circumstances.html

I thought it's related to the SPX re-balance and certain particular issues got dumped as NYAD was not too bad................


Edited by redfoliage2, 20 June 2020 - 11:29 AM.