32 replies to this topic

[Russ]

This is from MA's private blog on or about May10:

 

"We should see a new high next week which could be as soon Monday with a decline thereafter into the week of the 18th(TP) which should be a panic cycle to the downside. a lot of these moves will be determined by the reversal system, so as long as the Dow does not elect its next bullish reversal at 24765, the market should decline into the the week of the 18th.
The 2nd quarter is a turning point so we either have to make new lows or close below the 1st quarterly close. The intraday low may occur in May, with June being the lowest monthly closing."

 

The Dow did not exceed 24765 (the April high) not even intra-day so the bullish reversal was not elected. 

 

Above is per a poster at: https://bitcointalk....ic=1082909.7680

So you are accusing Financial Sense of lying about MA predicting that stock market would bottom in March and rally into June?  I have seen him make many great predictions for decades, he was bullish after the crash of 87 which his pi cycle called to the day and he remained bullish into the end of the century. He also predicted to me at his seminar in the  late 1990's that oil would hit 10 dollars and then go to minimum 65 which he later increased to 100 once the really was underway. The NYSE peaked to within 1 day of the Jan 18th major pi cycle date. Who else has a model that did anything like that and has done it many times over the past 4 decades. 

[hhh]

Let's just say I don't believe Financial Sense any more than MA, and at best they exaggerated his "call" which was described by subscribers as follows:

 

1: "He's kind of suggesting that it could be a temp low, but a real bottom call? He was still looking for lower lows later, and then retests of course. That's not what I would call calling the low.

With Gold he's been wrong ever since 2015; and a correction into the second half of the year is also very, very vague."

 

2: "Armstrong is still calling this a false rally and a retest of the march low is still in play, the timing may be off but this information is invaluable. most people have jumped back into the market thinking we are off to new highs."

 

3: "Martin has been calling for a retest of the low every week since the start of April. How is the his a False rally?? Seriously?? The markets are up 40% in 10 weeks. The NASDAQ is at all time highs and SPX is 5% a way from all time highs."

 

4: "It looks and feels like Martin is being pressured to respond to a lot of angry subscribers. As I'm sure a lot of his subscribers (me included) have lost a lot of money in the last few weeks/months.

 

5: "I recently paid for several months of the Socrates PRO membership and during that time (beginning with MARCH 2020) I can confirm that Martin's PRO PRIVATE BLOGS indicated he was expecting a possibly deeper "correction" then what occured, and a shorter and less vigorous rally in the markets then what occurred. Moreover, the SOCRATES system is at best difficult for me to understand, and at worst a complete fraud. The constant PUSH is to get the subscriber to activate MARKET SUBSCRIPTIONS for every stock and ETF they own...so that you can receive these "reports" with the convoluted "forecasting" he makes available. At no time did I receive ANY forecast for TIME AND PRICE of any asset or index. "

With that said, he's finally being definitive with his words, when tasked with the question - "Is a Breakout to the upside possible?".

"Given the fact that we already have unprecedented OUTSIDE-REVERSALS to the downside on a yearly chart which has NEVER taken place since 1792, the real answer is probably no way."

 

https://bitcointalk....ic=1082909.7740

Edited by hhh, 23 June 2020 - 12:57 PM.

[hhh]

Sorry about bad edit above I tried to post the below excerpt as #5,   but it ended up in the middle of #4 instead of at the end:

 

5: "I recently paid for several months of the Socrates PRO membership and during that time (beginning with MARCH 2020) I can confirm that Martin's PRO PRIVATE BLOGS indicated he was expecting a possibly deeper "correction" then what occured, and a shorter and less vigorous rally in the markets then what occurred. Moreover, the SOCRATES system is at best difficult for me to understand, and at worst a complete fraud. The constant PUSH is to get the subscriber to activate MARKET SUBSCRIPTIONS for every stock and ETF they own...so that you can receive these "reports" with the convoluted "forecasting" he makes available. At no time did I receive ANY forecast for TIME AND PRICE of any asset or index. "

[Russ]

Sorry about bad edit above I tried to post the below excerpt as #5,   but it ended up in the middle of #4 instead of at the end:

 

5: "I recently paid for several months of the Socrates PRO membership and during that time (beginning with MARCH 2020) I can confirm that Martin's PRO PRIVATE BLOGS indicated he was expecting a possibly deeper "correction" then what occured, and a shorter and less vigorous rally in the markets then what occurred. Moreover, the SOCRATES system is at best difficult for me to understand, and at worst a complete fraud. The constant PUSH is to get the subscriber to activate MARKET SUBSCRIPTIONS for every stock and ETF they own...so that you can receive these "reports" with the convoluted "forecasting" he makes available. At no time did I receive ANY forecast for TIME AND PRICE of any asset or index. "

If the man did nothing else but create the economic confidence model history should remember him, the turning points on that model are proven into the billions to one odds. I do know he was warning that Socrates was predicting civil unrest for 2020 and also unemployment surging to great depression levels, both of which have unfortunately happened, even Armstrong could not understand how unemployment could surge like that after having gotten down to 1960's lows under Trump's tax cuts and deregulation's as well as trade re-negotiations. All that is required is to pay the subscription cost for financial sense to access the march interview to see if their interviewer is lying or not, I doubt he is lying because that is the companies reputation. 

 

The Dow btw looks like a head and shoulders formation... 

[hhh]

How do you measure confidence? What happened at 2015.75, "The Big Bang"? I realize market cycle work is not an exact science, but MA claims it is, to the day! So why did he have two different "exact to the day" dates for "The Big Bang"? And why is the cycle number of 8.6 referred to as at least 3 other different numbers if it's so precise as to be able to predict exact days?

 

https://armstrongecm...ence-model.html

[Russ]

How do you measure confidence? What happened at 2015.75, "The Big Bang"? I realize market cycle work is not an exact science, but MA claims it is, to the day! So why did he have two different "exact to the day" dates for "The Big Bang"? And why is the cycle number of 8.6 referred to as at least 3 other different numbers if it's so precise as to be able to predict exact days?

 

https://armstrongecm...ence-model.html

There was only one day for 2015.75,  it is .75 into 2015, these pi dates are carved in stone.  Here is Armstrong's explanation on his big bang prediction... 

Blog/Interest Rates Posted Feb 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I can see your warning about Big Bang and the bonds markets would crash after 2015.75 going into the bottom of your business cycle on January 18, 2020. However, it seems that the negative interest rates have created your bond crash not in price but in participation. There is no viable bond market outside the United States with small exceptions of Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Is there any way to come back from this destruction? Do you see the bond markets ever reviving or is this destruction permanent?

HC

ANSWER: If there was a free market, then you would have witnessed the bonds crash price and interest rates rise as people perceived risk. The introduction of negative interest rates which began in late 2014 going into 2015.75 and Quantitative Easing, shifted the risk from the free market to the central banks. This is what I mean that they are now TRAPPED! If interest rates rise, their portfolios crash in value (price). Such an outcome would raise the question of will the private sector return to the government bond markets when they see there is a rising risk factor? Our model shows that this will not be the case. In other words, the Sovereign Debt Crisis has taken place and to prevent the PRICE crash, the central banks became the buyer to hold interest rates down and bond prices up.

Some would think that the forecast was wrong simply because the prices have not crashed. We have had the Bank of Japan saying they will buy government bonds on an unlimited basis. This is NOT a free market. It has “crashed” from the perspective of participation.

 

 

It is like the creation of the Euro. Yes, it effectively eliminated the volatility in the currency markets between the Eurozone members. However, it really only transferred the volatility from the currency market to the spreads between the bond markets of member states. Obviously, Greece and Germany both use the Euro. The volatility which would have been reflected in the currency simply moved to the bond markets.

Now we have a serious crisis that has shifted from the bond markets exclusively to the central banks. This is now part of the crisis unfolding in the REPO Market. There does not appear to be any recovery on the horizon. Politicians are undermining the confidence in government, to begin with and that will influence bond buyers.

 

[Russ]

[hhh]

Presumably, per MA's model, we had a "Monetary Crisis" about mid-January of this year. I must've missed it. The Euro hasn't collapsed yet as he's been predicting for years.

[Russ]

https://www.armstron.../models/7219-2/

[Russ]

model dates... https://www.armstron...-6000bc-2072ad/