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Armstrong - 2020 first year ever Dow took out previous years high and low

test of march low for July

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#31 hhh

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Posted 23 June 2020 - 02:24 PM

Well that second to last link kind of sounds impressive, except for the really weird typos, but what is he saying. What market "lined up" with 2015.75? A critic would say he's talking in circles and making excuses for failure of his model, but if it doesn't model anything in particular, it can't fail, can it? I don't recall anything major happening around October 1, 2015.


Edited by hhh, 23 June 2020 - 02:26 PM.


#32 Russ

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Posted 23 June 2020 - 02:27 PM

Presumably, per MA's model, we had a "Monetary Crisis" about mid-January of this year. I must've missed it. The Euro hasn't collapsed yet as he's been predicting for years.

The model shows turns in major markets to the day in many cases on the major turn points, his interpretation of what those turns will will affect have not always been correct but overall pretty good in my view.


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#33 Russ

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Posted 23 June 2020 - 02:32 PM

1981 saw a huge spike in inflation with Gold hitting US$850 per ounce was predicted by Armstrong in the 1970's, that time period was also the final wave of the last 51.6 year confidence in public sector cycle (FDR's New Deal Era) leading up to the new private wave that started in 1985.65 which will end in 2037.

1985.65 (.65 of the number of days in the year) - start of the current 51.6 year private cycle - was the major turn in the British Pound/Us dollar ratio.

1987 date was the low in the US stock markets crash to the day. The model predicted the crash of 1987 to the day during which time Martin Armstrong indicated that it was not the start of the next great depression as some said, but was just the first serious panic in the emerging new private wave.

1989 cycle date was the high in the Japanese Nikkei and Martin Armstrong warned that it was going to go down 20,000 points within 10 months.

1994.25 showed the low in the SP500 to the day and the start of the dot.com mania of the 1990's.

1996 turn showed the high in the US markets at that point.

1998.55 was the high in the US stock markets to the day and led to a 20% panic sell-off and a crisis with a derivatives company which the government stepped in to save. Mr Armstrong predicted this would be a major event almost a decade before it happened! It was also the real peak in the markets as measured internally. His computer had forecast in the early 1990's that the dow would hit 6,000 by 1996 and 10,000 by 1998, the computer model had lots more in it than just the pi cycle.  (Armstrong won the hedge fund manager of the year for this call and he went massively short on the day of the turn)

1999.62 was the low in the Gold price after a 20 year bear market.2000.7 was the final high in the SP500 for the roaring 1990's bull market.

Sept.2000 saw the final high in the SP500 for the great 1990's bull market that Martin had forecast accurately a decade before. Martin predicted the markets would go sideways for 5 or 6 years after the 1990's bull market came to an end. A little more than 6 years later in early 2007 the Dow Jones made new highs.

2002.85 was the end of the bear market in the US stock exchanges, as Martin had forecast. It was also a bigger cyclical trend for rising commodity markets which Martin had forecast long before. One other thing happened on that cycle of November 8, 2002, it was the day that the UN handed down its ultimatum to Iraq to comply with its demands, not long after President George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a false charge that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, refusing to let the UN do its job of inspections, even though the UN protested. Martin had forecast that war would increase after this turning point, although he thought it would increase with China and Russia trying to hold onto past glory with their satellites. In general Armstrong thought that this part of the cycle led to increased war which was and unfortunately, is correct.

In an article he wrote in 1999 he warned that the USA would be attacked in either Sept. or Oct. of 2001 (probably based on the 224 yr. civilization cycle which is related to the Pi Cycle) and that this would then be followed by a war in response to the attack, it all came to pass unfortunately. Very strange.

2005 turn saw a low in the US dollar index with a sharp reversal to the upside.

2007.15 is projected by Martin to be a peak in commodity prices including Gold, however it could extend out into 2012 according to him. In general the model indicated that everything would inflate again after the 2002 low, with an emphasis on hard assets - commodities, real estate etc. but given that the dow jones 30 took the lead and made new highs into the 2007 cycle date while commodities and housing (actually the Schiller Housing index peaked on the Feb. 2007 Pi Cycle date, as did the Nikkei and the Financial Indices)peaked earlier that shows that capital had turned back to stocks (especially the blue chips) again.


Edited by Russ, 23 June 2020 - 02:34 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/