1292 replies to this topic

[dougie]

 

 

 

Methinks the correction deepness on Silver will surprise some folks. Too much too fast for now.

 

Do not think we will see over 30 on this ramp, and correction may have started overnight, after 5 min 900 was broken and then rejected at the backtest.

First target zone still 26, then 24. Not sure if goes vertical drop straight to 24 or not.

Eventually, at least 22 area and possibly 20 handles will print.

 

If the correction I am looking for on Silver does materialize, should be a fantastic time to get aboard for the longer haul....

 

Back above $29.50 now, and I could be wrong on the big pull back to the breakout level scenario....

so are you thinking shorts here or just wait to adds here?

 

For the futures positions, I sold in tranches as the blowoff finished, and then shorted the day SI approached 30, and just covered and re-bought the futures when they tagged the base just above 24. Will buy more if we go a bit lower overnight.

 

This is most likely for a trade only at this point unless there is a massive rally that reclaims some of the shorter term now rolling over 900 MAs.

Generally when you see this bad of a break, it is not a 1 and done...

 

We may go essentially sideways/down for weeks/months now as we correct the initial over exuberance. Should be some good back and forth volatility for a while is my best guess.

Since we got the full meal deal all the way to 24 on the initial breakdown, I am now thinking 22 area as a minimum low during the corrective back and forth, and possibly as low as 20 handle (this part would likely be a shake and bake bottom that broke down from 22 area, and then comes right back up.

 

For the family Cash IRAs, sold 1/2 AGQ at 60 and change and half at 70 and change for about 65 average.

Looking to buy back eventually in 40s or even possibly 30s. Since we were originally in at 20, we would essentially then have a zero cost entry (or less) if we buy back at 45 or below.

Then plan on letting it ride for a long time to come (barring any obvious longer term breakdown).

 

fill the gap at 35 on AGQ...???

 

or maybe jut maybe we turn an go from here. Doubt it but sure would surprise

[CHAx]

OK, I will take a shot longside since we didnt flash crash in Hong Kong......   GC 1901.5 long-- stop 1893.  First try.  Low confidence.... this could take a few days .

[CHAx]

OK, I will take a shot longside since we didnt flash crash in Hong Kong......   GC 1901.5 long-- stop 1893.  First try.  Low confidence.... this could take a few days .

 

Well, pie in my face on that one.  I've put half that position back on at 1892, no stop.  With this action, Im about 15% long, just going to build on dips (and they will probably be big dips).  Agree with others, silver could go quite a bit lower yet so not going to try to bottom pick that monster (yet) 

Edited by CHAx, 11 August 2020 - 11:55 PM.

[K Wave]

26 holding as resistance again so far on Silver....got a nice bonce trade overnight

 

Now going to watch for a bit to see if bulls regroup and try to reclaim 26, or if another shoe downside about to drop...

 

If we do get another leg down, would likely be a pretty good buy opp for a swing trade, and possibly the low for a while to come, marking the bottom area of the trading range I expect to see develop over coming weeks.

Edited by K Wave, 12 August 2020 - 08:17 AM.

[EHW]

Anyone has the yesterday's gold/silver DSI number?  Thanks in advance!

[Smithy]

Morning Dharma. Yes, I started out as a geologist in Australia many moons ago, but it has been so long I can't lay claim to any competence now, I am quite out of touch.

[dharma]

i have to think this is a dead cat bounce.  in any event this will take time to sort out . i expect the correction  to chew up some time

i see the correction lasting into september. . amazing the speed of these moves, any indecision and you are caught flat footed, and 

as the system becomes more unstable the volatility will increase.  this 200 price sale will be met w/buyers in india(black market) we are coming into their festival season.  

hit 1873 support , every 20+is  support or resistance till 1933 which marks the end of the price cycle 1954 is the key it marks the beginning of the next price cycle higher .this cycle is where we ran into the death zone 2080 and finishes the cycle 2101. it is going to take some time to get through this cycle

dharma

here is what hadik actually said: a couple of days ago

8-08-20 - [Gold & Silver]:  “That does not assure continued up movement in the immediate future since an initial peak could take hold now…

They entered their most bullish phase on/after June 22 - 26 and quickly reinforced that when Silver triggered a pair of trading range breakouts on July 10, while turning its intra-year trend up... 

Overall, the outlook remains bullish into May ’21 with Silver validating what was described in mid-March ’20 - when its gains were projected to outdo Gold’s gains in the ensuing year with Silver forecast to surge along with stock prices in 2Q ’20 - 2Q ‘21.   

At Friday’s highs, the ratio dipped under 70/1, a significant contraction from the ~120/1 ratio at the March ’20 low… and a key level of resistance (or support, depending on perspective) for that ratio.

Gold & Silver surged to new highs in early-August, extending the bullish cycles ushered in in late-June.  Gold failed to turn its intra-month trend up and subsequently dropped enough to neutralize its daily uptrend.  

[senorBS]

i have to think this is a dead cat bounce.  in any event this will take time to sort out . i expect the correction  to chew up some time

i see the correction lasting into september. . amazing the speed of these moves, any indecision and you are caught flat footed, and 

as the system becomes more unstable the volatility will increase.  this 200 price sale will be met w/buyers in india(black market) we are coming into their festival season.  

hit 1873 support , every 20+is  support or resistance till 1933 which marks the end of the price cycle 1954 is the key it marks the beginning of the next price cycle higher .this cycle is where we ran into the death zone 2080 and finishes the cycle 2101. it is going to take some time to get through this cycle

dharma

here is what hadik actually said: a couple of days ago

8-08-20 - [Gold & Silver]:  “That does not assure continued up movement in the immediate future since an initial peak could take hold now…

They entered their most bullish phase on/after June 22 - 26 and quickly reinforced that when Silver triggered a pair of trading range breakouts on July 10, while turning its intra-year trend up... 

Overall, the outlook remains bullish into May ’21 with Silver validating what was described in mid-March ’20 - when its gains were projected to outdo Gold’s gains in the ensuing year with Silver forecast to surge along with stock prices in 2Q ’20 - 2Q ‘21.   

At Friday’s highs, the ratio dipped under 70/1, a significant contraction from the ~120/1 ratio at the March ’20 low… and a key level of resistance (or support, depending on perspective) for that ratio.

Gold & Silver surged to new highs in early-August, extending the bullish cycles ushered in in late-June.  Gold failed to turn its intra-month trend up and subsequently dropped enough to neutralize its daily uptrend.  

I may disagree a bit. Just got back from camping with no cell/internet services, I think that gold smash from 2080 to 1860 has a very good chance to be a completed abc, anything from the 1-12 hr charts looks clearly corrective to that low. And we have have had 5 up hourly off that low. Lots of miners/ETF's hit my downside targets so I scrambled in the after hrs before 5:00 pacific time (bot some KL below 49, some GDX near 39.40 and some GDXJ near 56.30, hope we sell of a bit more in the miners as I want to add. Looks like my silver/SLV "completing something" count just before I left was spot on, corrections in bulls are supposed to be fast and furious and I love the way gold just blew some folks out. We see

 

Senor

[senorBS]

IMO - typical bull market action w these miners. Expect sharp, quick corrections for few days then resumption primary trend. We will see many more like this over next few years. Personally added some today.

U are correct IMO sir

 

Senor

[dougie]

 

i have to think this is a dead cat bounce.  in any event this will take time to sort out . i expect the correction  to chew up some time

i see the correction lasting into september. . amazing the speed of these moves, any indecision and you are caught flat footed, and 

as the system becomes more unstable the volatility will increase.  this 200 price sale will be met w/buyers in india(black market) we are coming into their festival season.  

hit 1873 support , every 20+is  support or resistance till 1933 which marks the end of the price cycle 1954 is the key it marks the beginning of the next price cycle higher .this cycle is where we ran into the death zone 2080 and finishes the cycle 2101. it is going to take some time to get through this cycle

dharma

here is what hadik actually said: a couple of days ago

8-08-20 - [Gold & Silver]:  “That does not assure continued up movement in the immediate future since an initial peak could take hold now…

They entered their most bullish phase on/after June 22 - 26 and quickly reinforced that when Silver triggered a pair of trading range breakouts on July 10, while turning its intra-year trend up... 

Overall, the outlook remains bullish into May ’21 with Silver validating what was described in mid-March ’20 - when its gains were projected to outdo Gold’s gains in the ensuing year with Silver forecast to surge along with stock prices in 2Q ’20 - 2Q ‘21.   

At Friday’s highs, the ratio dipped under 70/1, a significant contraction from the ~120/1 ratio at the March ’20 low… and a key level of resistance (or support, depending on perspective) for that ratio.

Gold & Silver surged to new highs in early-August, extending the bullish cycles ushered in in late-June.  Gold failed to turn its intra-month trend up and subsequently dropped enough to neutralize its daily uptrend.  

I may disagree a bit. Just got back from camping with no cell/internet services, I think that gold smash from 2080 to 1860 has a very good chance to be a completed abc, anything from the 1-12 hr charts looks clearly corrective to that low. And we have have had 5 up hourly off that low. Lots of miners/ETF's hit my downside targets so I scrambled in the after hrs before 5:00 pacific time (bot some KL below 49, some GDX near 39.40 and some GDXJ near 56.30, hope we sell of a bit more in the miners as I want to add. Looks like my silver/SLV "completing something" count just before I left was spot on, corrections in bulls are supposed to be fast and furious and I love the way gold just blew some folks out. We see

 

Senor

 

count is IMO perfect