Jump to content



Photo

Rounding the corner for home against Covid - Surge States update


  • Please log in to reply
27 replies to this topic

#1 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,752 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:13 AM

As I stated a few weeks back, many folks were going to be real surprised when the USA started to look just like Sweden in a few weeks.

Well, here we are a few weeks later, and it is beginning to happen.

And this did not take any kind of rocket science to make this prediction, just some common sense understanding of how viral curves work, and some basic critical thinking skills that seem to be sorely lacking in a certain portion of the populace these days, who instead prefer to unthinkingly regurgitate fear porn stories from the now nearly useless media.

 

So right off the bat, let’s have a look at Sweden, which is clearly wrapping things up. Hopefully even the fear porn regurgitators can agree on that.

sweden.png

 

swe-death.png

 

 

Next to the surge states that present a huge portion of the most populous counties in the USA.

 

We’ll start with AZ, the first surge state that got everybody overly excited with doom and gloom prognostications, and which has Maricopa County, the 4th most populous county in the country.

AZ has clearly rolled over, and as you can see now that we are far enough out on the hospital EPI curve, the worst was actually roughly 3rd – 4th week in June.

az-hosp-adm.png

 

And as admissions declined, the total inpatient count has now rolled over as well.

az-inpatient.png

 

And Emergency dept visits are now declining rapidly as well.

AZ-Ed.png

 

And a couple charts from Maricopa County.

 

Maricopa Cases

maricopa-case.png

 

Maricopa Hospital

maricopa-hosp.png

 

Worst is over in AZ, and in a few weeks, will look much like Sweden.

az-7day.png

 

Up Next Texas:


What A Beautiful Black Sky


#2 trioderob

trioderob

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,173 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:24 AM

wait till the school year starts 



#3 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,752 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:27 AM

Next we go to Texas which has Harris county, the number 3 most populous county in the country, as well as the large counties of Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis. Some are further along in the rollover than others, but it is clearly happening as you can see in the charts below.

 

As you can see, the Epi curve in Harris county is starting to look nearly identical to the action in the Sweden chart above. And the death count to date in Harris is 535 out a population of 4.7 million. Not even a blip on excess mortality.

hou-epi.png

 

And the Harris daily reported cases have stopped rising as well with the expected week or so delay from the date of onset Epi curve, due to the reporting delay from time test was taken, etc.

hou-case.png

 

 

DFW area, which is reporting 8 counties that would be #2 behind LA county in terms of population when combined together, and accounts for nearly a ¼ of all Texas cases, has also stalled out, and is now turning down. Thus far 977 deaths attributed to Covid out of nearly 7 Million population area. Again, not even a blip on excess mortality. They do not seem to have Epi Curve available, but am sure it would nearly identical to Harris above.

dfw-case.png

 

And down in San Antone (Bexar), things are rolling over as well. Deaths to date 257…again not even a blip on excess mortality. Note: they dumped a whole bunch of past cases in 1 day on the reported by date section, so that is why the big spike a few days back.

bexar.png

 

And in Austin, Travis County, where I am, both the case curve an Epi curve show we are far along in the Sweden duplication, with thus far a grand total 203 deaths during the entire episode.  And again, not even a blip on excess mortality.

 

Travis Epi

aus-epi.png

 

Travis Case reported

aus-case.png

 

CDC has a great chart showing the last 5 years, and as you can clearly see, Texas has simply had a roughly normal P&I season, not even coming close to 2017-2018 experience.

tx-cdc.png

 

I have to say when you compare the NYC CDC chart to Texas, it is extremely hard to imagine the Governor of literally the worst run Covid experience on the planet has the gall to even think about criticizing Texas. It is like a guy who just ran an 8 minute mile, and finished dead last by a couple of laps, calling the guy who just finished the race in 4 minutes a crappy runner…SMH

nyc-cdc.png

 

And to top things off, I see some chart circulating where New Yorkers are high fiving themselves for their last place effort (by a country mile) against Covid. I guess in this day and age of participation trophies, they feel they deserve one…

 

Have to run a few errands,  but will post the CA and FL looks a bit later. Pretty much more of the same, with Fl lagging a slight bit.


What A Beautiful Black Sky


#4 pdx5

pdx5

    Trade safe! Mange risk wisely.

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,536 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:29 AM

k wave....I admire your instincts and common sense.

 

The "academic virologists" have been more wrong about covid-19 than any poster on this forum.

 

>> what happened to the original death estimate for 2-2.5 million Americans going to die from covid-19?

 

>> Why was Dr Fauci (eminent "virologist" in country) against stopping incoming flights from China?

 

>>. Why did Dr Fauci said masks are not necessary?

 

>> Why the economy was shutdown for covid-19 which has much lower kill ratio than H1N1, Ebola, SARS, Bird Flue, Swine Flu, but not a single school or business was shut down during those killer contagious diseases?

 

>> Why was that man killed in a motor cycle accident last week in Florida listed as a covid-19 death?

 

We all must note that the scientific community exists with grants from big pharma and tax payers. They have a built in incentive to publish theories which exaggerate. A no consequence pandemic will not bring in grants.

 

95% (my estimate based on reading news) of people who died from covid-19 had one foot in the grave and other on a banana peel.

 

Little old me at 80 years age enjoyed a crowded cruise, and carrying on normal life's every day enjoyment had only minor symptoms of dry cough after the cruise, recovered in 10-12 days and probably acquired some immunity and now 100% symptom free. 135,000 people are LISTED as dead from covid-19. 2,350,000 others will die from other disease in 2020. But Dr Fauci and his gang of virologists are freaking out about the 6% deaths from disease and ignoring the other 94% deaths. Wake up America! 

 

We know that coronavirus death counts are being inflated - we just don't know by how much. After all, how could they not be when there is a financial incentive for states and municipalities to report deaths as coronavirus deaths? And for some states, there may even be a political incentive... Which is why it shouldn't come as a total surprise when a man who suffered a fatal motorcycle accident in Florida last week was added to the state's Covid-19 death count.

 

mc%20ac.jpg?itok=glihubTr


Edited by pdx5, 20 July 2020 - 09:36 AM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 traderx

traderx

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,129 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:35 AM

go to John Hopkins Virus Statistics Site

Deaths per 10000 USA ranks worst of all world countries, and getting worse

 

News also, says it is  worse every day, catastrophe country.

 

Sweden and all other countries had a centralized country plan, USA 52 plans. Nothing  from top. 

Even Bahamas is  banning USA citizens, from coming to their country.

 

Half of Nobel prize winners since 1950 from USA, and USA is richest country in the world, makes it amazing dilemma we are in. 

 

 

.



#6 pdx5

pdx5

    Trade safe! Mange risk wisely.

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,536 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:00 AM

go to John Hopkins Virus Statistics Site

Deaths per 10000 USA ranks worst of all world countries, and getting worse

 

News also, says it is  worse every day, catastrophe country.

 

Sweden and all other countries had a centralized country plan, USA 52 plans. Nothing  from top. 

Even Bahamas is  banning USA citizens, from coming to their country.

 

Half of Nobel prize winners since 1950 from USA, and USA is richest country in the world, makes it amazing dilemma we are in. 

 

 

 

Yes, you will die if you get out of your basement. 

So Please go into your basement and stay there like some prominent people are doing.

 

https://www.realclea...om/coronavirus/

 

Country Deaths Deaths /
1M pop New
Deaths Tests Estimated
Cases Confirmed
Cases Confirmed Case
Fatality Rate Confirmed Cases /
1M pop Seasonal Flu Deaths1
(CDC/WHO 2017)   609,740 - - - - 14,683,830 - - - United States 143,316 438.1 +27 48,345,519 - 3,900,434 3.67% 11,921.8 40,905 Brazil 79,535 379.7 +2 4,911,063 - 2,100,112 3.79% 10,025.9 16,910 United Kingdom 45,300 681.3 - 13,293,523 - 294,792 15.37% 4,433.7 13,879 Mexico 39,184 310.5 +296 821,922 - 344,224 11.38% 2,727.8 6,075 Italy 35,045 579.9 - 6,238,049 - 244,434 14.34% 4,044.8 10,058 France 30,152 450.1 - 2,764,345 - 174,674 17.26% 2,607.6 9,199 Spain 28,420 608.3 - 6,026,446 - 307,335 9.25% 6,577.7 8,091 India 27,628 20.4 +125 14,047,908 - 1,127,281 2.45% 833.4 362,108 Iran** 14,405 176.1 +217 2,175,217 - 276,202 5.22% 3,376.5 3,156 Peru 13,187 412.2 - 2,063,240 - 353,590 3.73% 11,053.4 9,212 Russia 12,427 86.0 +85 25,251,614 - 777,486 1.60% 5,381.3 18,654 Belgium 9,800 858.0 - 1,444,885 - 63,893 15.34% 5,593.8 2,662 Germany 9,163 110.5 - 6,884,614 - 202,901 4.52% 2,446.7 16,876 Canada 8,852 238.9 - 3,520,542 - 110,338 8.02% 2,977.4 4,569 Chile 8,503 454.0 - 1,404,047 - 330,930 2.57% 17,669.2 2,235 Colombia 6,736 135.7 - 1,210,063 - 197,278 3.41% 3,973.5 2,527 Netherlands 6,136 356.1 - 764,079 - 51,910 11.82% 3,012.6 2,312 Sweden 5,619 551.8 - 681,820 - 77,281 7.27% 7,589.1 1,541 Pakistan 5,599 26.4 +31 1,740,768 - 265,083 2.11% 1,249.1 42,650 Turkey 5,491 66.7 - 4,273,377 - 219,641 2.50% 2,668.1 5,613 Ecuador 5,313 311.0 - 204,162 - 74,013 7.18% 4,332.2 1,444 South Africa 5,033 87.1 - 2,471,747 - 364,328 1.38% 6,305.5 8,409 China* 4,634 3.3 - 90,410,000 - 83,682 5.54% 60.1 91,814 Egypt 4,302 43.7 - 135,000 - 87,775 4.90% 891.8 22,843 Indonesia 4,239 15.8 +96 1,235,545 - 88,214 4.81% 329.6 59,453 Iraq 3,781 98.4 - 793,024 - 92,530 4.09% 2,407.5 8,113 Bangladesh 2,668 16.5 +50 1,041,661 - 207,453 1.29% 1,285.7 36,590 Saudi Arabia 2,523 74.9 +37 2,728,424 - 253,349 1.00% 7,517.8 1,974 Argentina 2,260 50.8 - 541,238 - 126,755 1.78% 2,848.8 7,156 Bolivia 2,151 189.5 +45 128,410 - 59,582 3.61% 5,248.1 3,159 View All

Edited by pdx5, 20 July 2020 - 10:01 AM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 pdx5

pdx5

    Trade safe! Mange risk wisely.

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,536 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:14 AM

Instead of lying about death rates, here are the actual figures for number of deaths and CONFIRMED CASES FATALITY RATES bycountry, 
 
United States 143,316 3.67%
Brazil 79,535 3.79%
UK 45,300 15.37%
Mexico 39,184 310.5 11.38%
Italy 35,045 14.34% 
France 30,152 17.26%
Spain 28,420 9.25% 
India 27,628 2.45% 
Iran** 14,405 5.22%
Peru 13,187 3.73%
Russia 12,427 1.60% 
Belgium 9,800 15.34%
Germany 9,163 4.52%
Canada 8,852 8.02%
Chile 8,503 2.57%
Colombia 6,736 3.41%
Netherlands 6,136 11.82%
Sweden 5,619 7.27%
Pakistan 5,599 2.11%
Turkey 5,491 2.50% 
Ecuador 5,313 7.18%
South Africa 5,033 1.38%
China* `4,634 5.54% E
Egypt 4,302 4.90% 
Indonesia 4,239 4.81% 
Iraq 3,781 4.09%
Bangladesh 2,668 1.29%
Saudi Arabia 2,523 1.00%
Argentina 2,260 1.78%

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 traderx

traderx

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,129 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:15 AM

my comment was not about deaths in genera nor flu-----it was virus

Most gave up on flu argument by now--but you hang on to it

Last year in height of flu was  there fear like this?



#9 pdx5

pdx5

    Trade safe! Mange risk wisely.

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,536 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:18 AM

my comment was not about deaths in genera nor flu-----it was virus

Most gave up on flu argument by now--but you hang on to it

Last year in height of flu was  there fear like this?

I am hanging on to actual data only!

It matters little what you call corona virus.

You said "deaths in USA are the highest per 10000.

That is a blatant lie or you just do not understand the data.

I will give you the benefit of latter.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 traderx

traderx

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,129 posts

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:27 AM

show one newspaper article  in the world, one video on internet anything that says USA doing better than most other countries, just one.