1426 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

FNV is now trading at same price it was on 4/8/20 when gold was trading at 1680. That's an area often mentioned as support for gold. So there is some logic in this madness.

[CHAx]

been so busy just noticed TYX at a major new rally high at 2.125%! When does the chatter increase about "fixing" long term rates? fairly soon IMO, they simply cannot let this get away from them - Hotel CA playin in the background

 

Senor

 

The whole commodity complex is just roaring.  Gold and silver quietly building up steam like a pressure cooker.

 

If yields go too high, bad news for stocks.

Edited by CHAx, 19 February 2021 - 11:08 AM.

[linrom1]

57.61 down to 36.30 is 21.31

am i missing something here: sorry to be so dense

You are right. I was using this measuring tool in TV. It expresses point move as a percentage of current price, for example, if current price is 100 and price moved 50 points its 50/100 AND not 50/150.

[senorBS]

 

been so busy just noticed TYX at a major new rally high at 2.125%! When does the chatter increase about "fixing" long term rates? fairly soon IMO, they simply cannot let this get away from them - Hotel CA playin in the background

 

Senor

 

The whole commodity complex is just roaring.  Gold and silver quietly building up steam like a pressure cooker.

 

If yields go too high, bad news for stocks.

 

Two things, gold/miners can and have easily rallied with rates rising, and I agree about "pressure cooker" re silver and even gold "soon" IMO

 

Senor

[dharma]

not mentioned here but china is still closed , last day, for new years holiday, the year of the ox

also, i wonder  , out loud , if the reddit crowd went long in silver on margin?? and what we experienced was a washout of these newbies!

right into my dates . as senor has pointed out there is evidence for a low.  i am cautiously optimistic, i say that verbally, but i am well positioned having placed my bets . i am heavily leaning to silver and platinum . silver still has not taken out its 1980 high . the only other commodity that i see that has not done so , is sugar. some folks watch sugar as an advance indicator for silver

those that point to rising rates as an impediment to rising gold  have not looked at charts of the 70s.

speaking of which  volcker tried to preserve the dollar . he was bent on preserving the currency. every time inflation ratcheted up  he raised rates. today the fed is cheering for 2 %inflation.,they have promised to hold rates @0until 2023, this does not sound like they are bent on preserving the currency. if you are lost in the squiggles of the charts.  the dollar is going down. holding the dollar as a safety net is your road to financial ruin. no one talks about it here, and maybe its not the place, cypto and the pms are the road to financial salvation. the fed is letting the dollar go. powell and yellin are not taking the course that volcker took 40years ago. heads up

dharma 

 

https://stateofthenation.co/?p=52981

Edited by dharma, 19 February 2021 - 11:26 AM.

[CHAx]

Two things, gold/miners can and have easily rallied with rates rising, and I agree about "pressure cooker" re silver and even gold "soon" IMO

 

 

 

Senor

 

 

Absolutely agree!  I just meant stocks in general usually do poorly in higher interest rate environments (think SPX and NDX).  Higher rates are great for commodity producers however!

Edited by CHAx, 19 February 2021 - 11:24 AM.

[CHAx]

 

also, i wonder  , out loud , if the reddit crowd went long in silver on margin?? and what we experienced was a washout of these newbies!

 

 

Last 7 or 8 days SLV had outflows.  I would say yes, margined WSBers and call buyers got hosed.  And look how they suppressed price on expiration day.  Classic dealer move!

 

https://www.etf.com/...fund-flows-tool

[dharma]

sentiment

Sentiment for gold getting very negative (bullish for gold). Gold DSI 23. Went as low as 14 in late-November before 5-week, $170 gold rally … Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) currently under 38 – bottomed at 35 last November before big gold rally and 17% GDX rally. BPGDM at 100 near August peak. Would like to see one more scary dip (washout) and intraday turnaround. 

 

thanks chax  yes, i believe the reddits and robin hoods. were not well prepared for what they faced, of course that takes years.

dharma

[CHAx]

sentiment

Sentiment for gold getting very negative (bullish for gold). Gold DSI 23. Went as low as 14 in late-November before 5-week, $170 gold rally … Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) currently under 38 – bottomed at 35 last November before big gold rally and 17% GDX rally. BPGDM at 100 near August peak. Would like to see one more scary dip (washout) and intraday turnaround. 

 

thanks chax  yes, i believe the reddits and robin hoods. were not well prepared for what they faced, of course that takes years.

dharma

 

 

Where are you getting the DSI info?  

 

Someone posted this here recently:  https://www.tradersp...Trend/sentiment

Seems to be a decent gauge of sentiment.

[dougie]

Looks like we put in some type of bottom here.  I won't say THE bottom for sure, but something happened in the Asian session when we made new lows in /GC plus a mini flash crash in /SI that seems to have washed out the longs.   Should be trade-able from the long side for at least 24-48 hours IMO.

two weeks imo