1426 replies to this topic

[bigtrader]

since you re-opend the door lets not forget China Joe

[dharma]

i have been feeling undercurrents here for a while and am not inspired to share my thoughts. most , except for senor and gannman , keep their hand close to their vest. i was invited to another board some months back and i enjoy posting there so that is fulfilling 

i recently watched ken burns the civil war , a 9part series. if you are not familiar w/ken burns work it is 1irst rate on all fronts. that war was horrible . the south was essentially starved into submission , and when that came the northern soldiers shared their rations w/their southern counterparts.   we are all americans and we have different points of view. politicians' s are another breed if

i am here solely to share ideas and try to make money. if it becomes a distraction, which it has become. , i dont need to be here

this down move friday was on heavy volume but lighter volume than the upmove, which i take to mean it is running out of gas. we will see what this week brings.  i look for new highs in the 2nd quarter. 

there are probably political threads on the web , hang there. if it is to be here. fine count me out

dharma

[linrom1]

I think this is the prevailing view, so most likely won't happen.

[dougie]

I think this is the prevailing view, so most likely won't happen.

prevailing view? how do you gauge that?

Seems like it is surely possibility

 

but this move lower could also be a 2

[ryanoo]

This drop in gold could have been foreseen from the rising yield. but I was having a wishful thinking and am in pain.  

 

As this article says, the inflationary demand side is winning over the disinflationary supply side.  Amazon, Google and Uber gave this supply side disinflation thus far.

 

 

Also, can the western culture learn from the east ? while maintaining individual freedom, can the society learn to exercise a collective responsibility? this should happen by education.  I think its possible and doable, by education.  In the coming decades, the importance of collective responsibility will only increase for human survival.  Pandemic, climate change, ... can not be dealt with effectively without it.

 

"You are looking at a marathon, and after the first few kilometers, China is clearly in the lead. China is in the lead because it doesn't have to worry about individual freedoms. It has an ability to control people's behavior that the West does not have. Additionally, other Asian economies like Korea and Taiwan have a sense of collective responsibility that you don’t get in the US or Europe. Here, policy makers have to worry about normal economic interactions, public health and individual freedoms. The Chinese government doesn’t have don’t have to worry about individual freedom, and solving a two-variable equation is much easier than solving a three-variable equation. So it’s not surprising that China is sprinting out in this marathon of recovery much faster."

Edited by ryanoo, 10 January 2021 - 06:12 PM.

[linrom1]

 

I think this is the prevailing view, so most likely won't happen.

prevailing view? how do you gauge that?

Seems like it is surely possibility

 

but this move lower could also be a 2

 

...listened to bunch of market callers and I follow others who use EW. There was one person whose alt view was that we completed a leading diagonal in WAVE I and are now in WAVE II.

[sixpack]

Follow up on last post.  Exited gold stock position for very small gain.  Got caught in my stock market short, thinking I would exit after getting to work on the gap up day.  That was a bad idea, so still holding that one.  No clear direction here for me.  I'm still bullish gold stocks, waiting for a better signal.  The monthly gap up threw me off, although it was very profitable.  We have dropped almost all the way back down, so I'm waiting here.   

[tradesurfer]

After reviewing the charts again, I am seeing risk of a massive crash in the miners...really violent... yikes...  50% down in the XAU

 

Long DUST  and will probably add tomorrow

[tradesurfer]

Jordan Roy Byrne from thedailygold dot com saying that the decline in metals surprised him but is still advising to 'hold'.  He also said previously that one should 'hold in a bull market'.... 

 

What a conflict of interest a newsletter writer has.... he should be telling his subscribers to get the hell out and sell everything.. but of course he cannot say that.... instead just says hold... and now may have to ride all the way back down, losing most paper gains..

[stubaby]

Sure did not see Friday's rout coming - had added some leveraged positions, as well as, margin - which is my practice as markets move in my favor.  Now 'round-trip' back to year-end valuation - but it feels so much like a loss!  Leveraged positions and margin taken off Friday - still holding core positions from April last year - but not happy!  Should have expected this as the bullishness ramped up too quickly after the break-out - it will probably take some more pain now to flip the sentiment around toward neutral-negative.

 

I do see a January recovery toward/near the 2,000 level, then I am not sure, we will see.

 

stu