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#1 da_cheif

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Posted 24 December 2020 - 07:10 AM

AAII Survey Results for Week Ending 12/23/2020
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%

BULLISH
43.6%
+0.1Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%

NEUTRAL
34.4%
+4.2Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%

BEARISH
22.0%
-4.3Percentage point
change from
last week

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.



#2 brucekeller

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Posted 24 December 2020 - 07:49 AM

AAII Survey Results for Week Ending 12/23/2020
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%

BULLISH
43.6%
+0.1Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%

NEUTRAL
34.4%
+4.2Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%

BEARISH
22.0%
-4.3Percentage point
change from
last week

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Does Bearish have to get to under 10% before you start looking at the AAII the other way? Not that anyone would be wrong about the market going up, so many trillions have been printed... never fight the Fed!



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 24 December 2020 - 08:02 AM

 

AAII Survey Results for Week Ending 12/23/2020
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%

BULLISH
43.6%
+0.1Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%

NEUTRAL
34.4%
+4.2Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%

BEARISH
22.0%
-4.3Percentage point
change from
last week

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Does Bearish have to get to under 10% before you start looking at the AAII the other way? Not that anyone would be wrong about the market going up, so many trillions have been printed... never fight the Fed!

 

3 months or so off the 2003 bottom.....AAII sentiment got real bullish like about 65%yet the market kept goin up till 2007



#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 December 2020 - 11:57 AM

Take a 20 year weekly chart of AAII sentiment with !AAIIBULL-!AAIIBEAR.

 

Add the standard MACD 12/26/9 of the sentiment and look for long swings from a MACD low to a peaking high (as we have now).

 

Add the SPX for price comparison.

 

In most cases, at the least a multi week pause in price occurred.



#5 12SPX

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Posted 27 December 2020 - 02:30 PM

My understanding is if there are more bears its bullish and if there are to many bulls its bullish and if there about even its bullish, in different words when the numbers are posted weekly they're bullish lol!!   yes.gifpop.gif



#6 Darris

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Posted 27 December 2020 - 09:25 PM

Here is that chart RD mentioned.  Also, for those still following TSP the number of Bulls and Bear percents were both records since I believe 2006 for the data collected on December 17th and 18th (78/13).  This week was toned down a bit.

 

https://schrts.co/UbyjQWGF



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 08:34 PM

in a bull market only the bulls are right.....and its the mother of all bull mkts    675 ono  and watch the sky......and oh ya     SNORT



#8 12SPX

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Posted 29 December 2020 - 09:44 AM

This markets been in a permanent bull market since 1995 lol!  But your right since 09 and 667 for me with the Mark Haines bottom, I've "traded" a bit more because it hasn't been straight up lol!  667-1370, 1150-2100, 1900-2800, 2600-2900, 2400-3350 and the bottom of 2300 just this last spring to the current level of 3740 which adds up to an extra 5243 points.  Gonna be an interesting 2021 is all I can say with that great new leader saying that "darker days" are ahead!  Gonna miss Trumps positiveness!