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HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY


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#1 da_cheif

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 04:13 PM

MORE TO COME,....SNORT   AND BTW KEEP WATCHING THE SKY ONLY IF UR A POSITION TRADER



#2 MikeyG

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 04:17 PM

Happy New Year Chief!

#3 pdx5

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 04:26 PM

Cheif, this is a nerve racking problem I am sitting on. I hate to lose these obscene profits in my index funds (all bought in March 2020)

because the advance is so fast that I am afraid of a huge correction may show up any time now. To sell or keep riding the bull until he throws you off in a violent bucking off his back, is the question.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#4 andr99

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 04:29 PM

happy new year to you too cheif


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 04:41 PM

Happy New Year to all you guys. May it be safe, healthy, and prosperous!

 

Mark


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#6 da_cheif

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Posted 31 December 2020 - 10:58 PM

Cheif, this is a nerve racking problem I am sitting on. I hate to lose these obscene profits in my index funds (all bought in March 2020)

because the advance is so fast that I am afraid of a huge correction may show up any time now. To sell or keep riding the bull until he throws you off in a violent bucking off his back, is the question.

so
obscene?????   subs are still long from 2020 es and added for new listeners or the underinvested from es 2481 2985 3052.50 3245 3292    and the most recent from 3380.25  and of course from 313 and 675    ...by treating the monthly chart as a daily and with patience and proper ewave . sentiment , clx stuff analysis   the best is yet to come....while most fear  a sharp decline.....my greatest fear is missing the once in a lifetime epicenter of primary wave 3 up......can u just imagine what a wasted life robert prechter has to live with......i didnt want to end up like all those perma bears     .....i learned in the early 80s when granville  contracted ,my services that i wanted to be remembered for only one thing after im gone.....my hand in yours    


Edited by da_cheif, 31 December 2020 - 11:00 PM.


#7 tsharp

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 12:40 AM

 

Cheif, this is a nerve racking problem I am sitting on. I hate to lose these obscene profits in my index funds (all bought in March 2020)

because the advance is so fast that I am afraid of a huge correction may show up any time now. To sell or keep riding the bull until he throws you off in a violent bucking off his back, is the question.

so
obscene?????   subs are still long from 2020 es and added for new listeners or the underinvested from es 2481 2985 3052.50 3245 3292    and the most recent from 3380.25  and of course from 313 and 675    ...by treating the monthly chart as a daily and with patience and proper ewave . sentiment , clx stuff analysis   the best is yet to come....while most fear  a sharp decline.....my greatest fear is missing the once in a lifetime epicenter of primary wave 3 up......can u just imagine what a wasted life robert prechter has to live with......i didnt want to end up like all those perma bears     .....i learned in the early 80s when granville  contracted ,my services that i wanted to be remembered for only one thing after im gone.....my hand in yours    

 

 

I too was once infected by the Prechter perma-bear disease - 1995-2000 - and when the world didn't come to an end with the WAVE-THREE peak, I learned that markets tend towards growth, not destruction.  There's much more upward prices to go into ~2032...

 

Two views of the SPX monthly, with the fast momentum setting and the slow momentum setting, and both have already broken higher prior to the new year:

 

Fast...

 

SPX-M-12-31-20-LT-1.jpg

 

 

Slow...

SPX-M-12-31-20-LT-2.jpg



#8 tsharp

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 12:08 PM

SPX MONTHLY BOLLINGER BANDS UPDATE

I'm currently working on a data set where the SPX closed at the high of the year, and in some cases, also its ATH, to gage what we might expect in January 2021...

A good cycles guy commented on another platform that he was expecting January to be a down month, based on the fact that December was the second consecutive monthly close above the upper Bollinger Band, so I took a looksy to see if this condition existed before, and found something close, though not an exact match of the current conditions...

In late 1935 and into 1936 the SPX closed above the monthly upper Bollinger Band five months consecutively, while the December close was at its high, and to within .03-points of its November high (though well below its 1929 ATH)- and 1936 also closed nicely higher...
 

 

 

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This second chart is the current SPX monthly chart with Bollinger Bands, showing the SPX closed the month and year at new ATHs and above its upper Bollinger Band for a second consecutive month - more on this when I have more complete stats... watching.

 

 

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#9 tsharp

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 02:17 PM

Follow-up on BBs...

 

I earlier posted two segments of the SPX monthly chart with Bollinger Bands, showing 1934-1938 and 2016-2020, to show how a December close at its highs and above the upper Bollinger Band, did not necessarily suggest a negative month for January of the following year...

Here are four more segments of the SPX monthly with Bollinger Bands - 1942-1946, 1954-1958, 1980-1987 and 1994-1999 - to illustrate the double-edged character of Bollinger Bands; they attract AND repell...

Notice how in strongly trending markets, especially in the Bull Market Cycle, the price attacks that upper Bollinger Band, with as many as six consecutive monthly closes above it - 1943 had five... 1945 had six, though not consecutive...1954 had seven, though not consecutive... 1980 had five... 1995 had seven, though not consecutive - these were all within Bull Market Cycles, the ONLY exception to this was the 1935-36 example, which was within a Bear Market Cycle...

The point is: while it's rare for the SPX monthly to close above its upper Bollinger Band for four or more consecutive months, it's less rare during the Bull Market Cycle, which the most current one began in 2009 and should last into ~2032, so we could see another couple more monthly closes above it now, and will likely to see the same into ~2032... watching.

 

 

 

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#10 da_cheif

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 04:19 PM

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33118796