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HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY


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#11 Darris

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 08:36 PM

Don't forget, Nov and Dec 2019 closed abv the monthly BB, but you have to squint to see Nov 2019, and Dec closed fairly close to top tick for the year.  Also, Jan 2020 traded abv the closing Dec 2019 UBB value the entire month of Jan 2020 even tho it ended down a few points.  Anyway, Nov and Dec 2020 closed abv the monthly UBB as well and Dec 2020 traded abv the closing UBB value of Nov 2020 all month.  FYI, interesting filter. (Note end of 2006 and 2013 show some of the attributes on the monthly closing bars)



#12 da_cheif

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Posted 01 January 2021 - 10:46 PM

Don't forget, Nov and Dec 2019 closed abv the monthly BB, but you have to squint to see Nov 2019, and Dec closed fairly close to top tick for the year.  Also, Jan 2020 traded abv the closing Dec 2019 UBB value the entire month of Jan 2020 even tho it ended down a few points.  Anyway, Nov and Dec 2020 closed abv the monthly UBB as well and Dec 2020 traded abv the closing UBB value of Nov 2020 all month.  FYI, interesting filter. (Note end of 2006 and 2013 show some of the attributes on the monthly closing bars)

for some hindsight is great .....for the minority forsight is ..well.....the staff  life .....and dont forget twitster    https://twitter.com/don_wolanchuk


Edited by da_cheif, 01 January 2021 - 10:49 PM.


#13 tsharp

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 10:34 AM

FWIW, cumulative breadth continues to support higher prices, and the weekly shows incredible expansion for this bull market cycle into ~2032.

 

 

1-year:

 

NYAD-D1-CUM-12-31-20.jpg

 

 

Weekly 30-year:

 

NYAD-W30-CUM-12-31-20.jpg

 

 

SPX vs Cum A/D:

 

NYAD-W30-CUM-12-31-20-1.jpg



#14 tsharp

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 03:54 PM

The yearly SPX with BBs:

 

 

SPX-Y-12-31-20-BB.jpg



#15 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 05:39 PM

Best wishes to my fellow travelers in 2021!

 

Man it feels better already just saying 2021!

 

yes.gifbanana.gif



#16 da_cheif

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 09:23 PM

2020 wasnt chopped liver eh    12000 pts up off the march low and about 24000 pts up in the last decade



#17 tsharp

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Posted 03 January 2021 - 01:57 PM

 

 

Cheif, this is a nerve racking problem I am sitting on. I hate to lose these obscene profits in my index funds (all bought in March 2020)

because the advance is so fast that I am afraid of a huge correction may show up any time now. To sell or keep riding the bull until he throws you off in a violent bucking off his back, is the question.

so
obscene?????   subs are still long from 2020 es and added for new listeners or the underinvested from es 2481 2985 3052.50 3245 3292    and the most recent from 3380.25  and of course from 313 and 675    ...by treating the monthly chart as a daily and with patience and proper ewave . sentiment , clx stuff analysis   the best is yet to come....while most fear  a sharp decline.....my greatest fear is missing the once in a lifetime epicenter of primary wave 3 up......can u just imagine what a wasted life robert prechter has to live with......i didnt want to end up like all those perma bears     .....i learned in the early 80s when granville  contracted ,my services that i wanted to be remembered for only one thing after im gone.....my hand in yours    

 

 

I too was once infected by the Prechter perma-bear disease - 1995-2000 - and when the world didn't come to an end with the WAVE-THREE peak, I learned that markets tend towards growth, not destruction.  There's much more upward prices to go into ~2032...

 

Two views of the SPX monthly, with the fast momentum setting and the slow momentum setting, and both have already broken higher prior to the new year:

 

Fast...

 

SPX-M-12-31-20-LT-1.jpg

 

 

Slow...

SPX-M-12-31-20-LT-2.jpg

 

 

SPX MONTHLY LONG-TERM CHART UPDATE...

These are the SPX long-term monthly charts, the first with the momentum indicator line at the fast setting and the second with the momentum indicator line at the slow setting, showing the momentum indicator line on both closed above their respective DTLs...

Out of curiosity, I did a study to see if there was any significance to the monthly bar closing at its highs, though even that needed to be defined, so the parameters are thus:
- Within .1-points of the monthly high under the 100-point range...
- Within .5-points of the monthly high from the 101-500 point range...
- Within 1-point of the monthly high from the 501-1000 point range...
- Within 2-points of the monthly high from the 1001-2000 point range...
- Within 3-points of the monthly high from the 2001-3000 point range...
- And finally, within 4-points of the monthly high from the 3001-4000 point range...

With those parameters, out of 92-years of data, the monthly close was at a "top-tick" or nearly so, as a defined above, 131-times out of 1104 months...

And out of those times, there were 10-times when it was a December close, and of those ten, only once did the following January close lower (1952-53), so the odds are pretty good that the SPX is going higher next month... watching.