2512 replies to this topic

[gannman]

well i think we are in a wave ii correction . but we will soon know 

[gannman]

it is possible we could turn up in this sector around wednesday or thursday all just a best guess 

[tradesurfer]

I was expecting a big dump this evening on the opening prints....  but that does not appear to be happening...

 

maybe the afterburners can still kick in this week.....

 

Generally speaking I would really like to see the metals finish into the end of the year very strong..... my thinking is we need a strong closing bar (on various time frames) to set the tone going into 2022

[jabat]

Patience Pays Off

By Avi

For those of you that do not know my history of market analysis, I will tell you that the first major market call I made public was when I called for a top to a parabolic gold rally back in 2011.  At the time, gold was in the midst of a very strong rally in the summer of 2011, wherein we saw some days of $50 price moves to the upside.  In fact, the market was so bullish at the time, the only argument you would hear from analysts and market participants alike was how far beyond the psychological $2000 mark would gold break out.  The expectation of breaking out through $2000 was ubiquitous at the time.

Yet, in August of 2011, I posted a public article wherein I noted that:

“Since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave ‘blow-off-top,’ I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”

As we know today, the market topped at the $1,921 region, and took almost a decade to come back to break out over the $2,000 mark.  

The point of my story is that even though the metals often look like they are moving strongly, we must remember that all metals’ tops were seen after very strong rallies which seem like they will never end.  And, one cannot allow the emotion of the price movement to affect their analysis of the market based upon the math.

Over the last few weeks, we experienced a strong move higher in the metals complex.  Yet, I was watching a very specific resistance region on all the charts I was analyzing. And, over the last week and a half, the market was hitting its head on that resistance.  Then, on Friday, we finally saw evidence of the pullback I had wanted to see.  So, sometimes, it takes a bit of patience, but the math often wins out at the end of the day.

I have now added target boxes for this pullback in the various metals charts I track.  And, admittedly, I am not sure how deep into those targets we can drop.  The downside patterns are not terribly clear in silver and gold, but it does look like we are in the midst of a 3rd wave in a c-wave down in GDX and GDXJ.   This basically means that I am going to be looking for a micro 4th wave bounce/consolidation, followed by a lower low before I can reasonably consider this pullback as potentially completed.

But, I do want to note something within the GDX and silver charts.  Event though we are pulling back as I had wanted to see, I am still going to have to track the potential leading diagonal structures in both those charts due to the initial rallies we have seen off the recent lows.  

Ultimately, the 1.236-1.382 extensions overhead are going to be our next resistances of note.  And, if we see a 5-wave structure that projects and tops in that region, I will be viewing it as a high probability that these charts are rallying in a leading diagonal.   What this means is that their respective 3rd waves off the recent lows will terminate in that region, and provide us with a very deep 4th wave pullback.  But, if the market can project us beyond that resistance based upon the Fibonacci Pinball structure off the next low we strike, then I will be more inclined to expect the higher 3rd wave targets as shown.

The main point one should take away is that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, especially if we get the 4-5 set up in this current pullback.  Moreover, you can place your stops just below the boxes noted on the charts.  

Therefore, if the market should complete this pullback in appropriate fashion, and then provide us with a 5-wave rally structure off those lows, I will be preparing for an entry on the long side in aggressive fashion, as I have been patiently awaiting for these last few weeks.  And, as the market develops that structure, I will certainly highlight it and let you know my trigger for an aggressive long trade in real time.

The last point I want to make this weekend is that there is some evidence to suggest that the current rally may top out around the same time as the rally I still expect to take us higher in the equity markets.  That could mean that we may be aligning for another “global-melt-up” in many different asset classes for the last nine months of 2022.  The last time I saw this type of set up was in early 2016, which was also the last time I called for a “global-melt-up,” wherein we saw almost all assets rally strongly together for many months.   We may be getting a similar type of set up for 2022.   As we progress over the next few months, it will certainly become clearer if this is again what we are setting up for 2022.  But, for now, I am seeing some potential signs for this scenario again.

[jabat]

Week end update from the Daily Gold:

Good evening Mike,

Precious Metals cooled off at the end of the week and like last week, the near-term question is if the rally is over or if there is one more push higher to the stiff resistance around $1900. Gold closed the week at $1852. Its 50 and 200-day moving averages are around $1790 and there is additional support at $1815 and $1830. A pullback for a few weeks would not be an issue.

It’s important to note that Gold hasn’t broken out to any significance yet. It broke to a 5-month high. Great. The chart on p12 shows it has not broken meaningful trendline resistance. And of course there is that monthly and quarterly resistance at $1900. But Gold has made progress. I just want to see it reach $1900 and then break $1900 with a monthly close. Then I can’t give you a glass half empty analysis. Then it’s go time.

Quick note on the US dollar. It has broken out to a 17-month high. But the net spec position is approaching an extreme. And, the dollar tends to perform poorly after the start of rate hikes (just as Gold performs well). So the dollar may not remain a headwind for that much longer. But it could for at least a few more months.

Here is an important big picture point. Cup and handle patterns are quite bullish and especially on a long time frame. Historical examples in major markets  show that the pattern can launch that market beyond the arithmetic (measured) and logarithmic (percentage) targets.

What I am saying is that Gold’s cup and handle pattern is super bullish. This is a 10-year base. It’s going to launch Gold eventually well beyond $3,000, the measured upside target. I never talk about the log target for the breakout but depending how you measure it, its ~$3,700 or ~$4,100. So, the cup and handle breakout is not going to stop at $3,000. It’s probably going to hit $4,000 in two years after the breakout. And I think we get that breakout sometime next year.

-Jordan

[linrom1]

 

How is this not the bottom? Are we supposed re-test the lows?

[linrom1]

 

Patience Pays Off

By Avi

For those of you that do not know my history of market analysis, I will tell you that the first major market call I made public was when I called for a top to a parabolic gold rally back in 2011.  At the time, gold was in the midst of a very strong rally in the summer of 2011, wherein we saw some days of $50 price moves to the upside.  In fact, the market was so bullish at the time, the only argument you would hear from analysts and market participants alike was how far beyond the psychological $2000 mark would gold break out.  The expectation of breaking out through $2000 was ubiquitous at the time.

Yet, in August of 2011, I posted a public article wherein I noted that:

“Since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave ‘blow-off-top,’ I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”

As we know today, the market topped at the $1,921 region, and took almost a decade to come back to break out over the $2,000 mark.  

The point of my story is that even though the metals often look like they are moving strongly, we must remember that all metals’ tops were seen after very strong rallies which seem like they will never end.  And, one cannot allow the emotion of the price movement to affect their analysis of the market based upon the math.

Over the last few weeks, we experienced a strong move higher in the metals complex.  Yet, I was watching a very specific resistance region on all the charts I was analyzing. And, over the last week and a half, the market was hitting its head on that resistance.  Then, on Friday, we finally saw evidence of the pullback I had wanted to see.  So, sometimes, it takes a bit of patience, but the math often wins out at the end of the day.

I have now added target boxes for this pullback in the various metals charts I track.  And, admittedly, I am not sure how deep into those targets we can drop.  The downside patterns are not terribly clear in silver and gold, but it does look like we are in the midst of a 3rd wave in a c-wave down in GDX and GDXJ.   This basically means that I am going to be looking for a micro 4th wave bounce/consolidation, followed by a lower low before I can reasonably consider this pullback as potentially completed.

But, I do want to note something within the GDX and silver charts.  Event though we are pulling back as I had wanted to see, I am still going to have to track the potential leading diagonal structures in both those charts due to the initial rallies we have seen off the recent lows.  

Ultimately, the 1.236-1.382 extensions overhead are going to be our next resistances of note.  And, if we see a 5-wave structure that projects and tops in that region, I will be viewing it as a high probability that these charts are rallying in a leading diagonal.   What this means is that their respective 3rd waves off the recent lows will terminate in that region, and provide us with a very deep 4th wave pullback.  But, if the market can project us beyond that resistance based upon the Fibonacci Pinball structure off the next low we strike, then I will be more inclined to expect the higher 3rd wave targets as shown.

The main point one should take away is that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, especially if we get the 4-5 set up in this current pullback.  Moreover, you can place your stops just below the boxes noted on the charts.  

Therefore, if the market should complete this pullback in appropriate fashion, and then provide us with a 5-wave rally structure off those lows, I will be preparing for an entry on the long side in aggressive fashion, as I have been patiently awaiting for these last few weeks.  And, as the market develops that structure, I will certainly highlight it and let you know my trigger for an aggressive long trade in real time.

The last point I want to make this weekend is that there is some evidence to suggest that the current rally may top out around the same time as the rally I still expect to take us higher in the equity markets.  That could mean that we may be aligning for another “global-melt-up” in many different asset classes for the last nine months of 2022.  The last time I saw this type of set up was in early 2016, which was also the last time I called for a “global-melt-up,” wherein we saw almost all assets rally strongly together for many months.   We may be getting a similar type of set up for 2022.   As we progress over the next few months, it will certainly become clearer if this is again what we are setting up for 2022.  But, for now, I am seeing some potential signs for this scenario again.

 

Thanks

[Chilidawgz]

[Chilidawgz]

[gannman]

i was reading the quarterly results for rgld they had a great quarter stock is way undervalued imo