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Risk Windows for Week of March 15th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 02:09 PM

According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend is Thursday March 18th.  These is also a risk minimum on Tuesday the 16th which can sometimes tag turns as well.  

 

Last week the nebulous risk window that I noted spanning Tuesday and Wednesday only marked a brief hesitation in the DJIA march northward and evaporated into a dud.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 12th risk window.  If the DJIA turns down from the open on Monday, it could have tagged a top, otherwise it too was a dud and will make it zero for two, not exactly a stellar performance for the system.

 

Soap box:  Lumber prices which comprise something like 6% of the total cost of a lot & home have risen 150% in the last twelve months.  Sugar is up something like 30%.  Corn is up 40%.  Wheat is up 20%.  Gasoline is up 30%.  How in the $%?& is inflation, according to the Helen Keller economists at the BLS, only up a couple of percent?  I know you can substitute chicken for beef, but what are you going to substitute for a 2x4?  Figures can lie, but mostly liars can figure I suppose.  Inflation is raging and 1.9 trillion dollars hitting the fan ain't going to make it go any lower.  It's a simple matter of supply and demand.  More money suddenly hitting the system is demand.  Shutting down fracking and crude pipelines and continued covid fear is reducing supply.  It doesn't take a math genius to figure out what's going to happen.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 March 2021 - 02:14 PM.


#2 LMF

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 03:41 PM

Theyre measuring something pretty close to paper clip inflation. Close enough atleast. Thats what they want it to be, designed in. And thats what it really is. Like a duck. They get off paying out peanuts on the cola increases.

Edited by LMF, 13 March 2021 - 03:42 PM.


#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 04:38 PM

My head is exploding just thinking what my 23 year old granddaughter just paid for her new "starter" home.

But at  just over 2% interest, it is cheaper than rent!

 

So while she is paying multiples of what my "starter" home cost decades ago, I remember that I was also paying 13% on interest.



#4 Douglas

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 04:54 PM

LMF, what worries me is the potential for a stretched rubber band like nonlinear response to this unheralded, gradually impoverishing inflation which shafts the great unwashed huddled masses and enriches the one percenters.  Inflation has tugged and tugged on the hoi polloi human condition rubber band for the longest time and nothing has happened.  I fear when that response rubber reaches some final feather on the camel's back point and breaks whacking everyone left holding an end in some overwhelming US redneck equivalent of the Arab Spring.  At some point in the not too distant foggy future Joe 6 pack is going to figure out that he's being lied to and what's being done to him.  His response to this sudden epiphany ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

On the positive side, by my clock it's been 50 years since the inflation genie was let out of the bottle by Tricky Dickie and so far Joe is still clueless and the rubber is still stretching.  Amazing how this vulcanized wonder has lasted so long.  It was sorely tested during the reign of the peanut farmer, but survived intact.  Maybe it will be a miraculous rubber band and never break.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 March 2021 - 04:57 PM.


#5 Douglas

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 05:13 PM

Rogerdodger, interest rates are clearly a sword that cuts two ways.  Your granddaughter is only paying 2% on her mortgage, but her grandfather is only getting 1.25% on his 5 year Bank of Oklahoma CD's.  Grandpa eats crow while the kid gets caviar.  Something a bit more balanced is all that I'm asking for.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#6 LMF

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 07:31 PM

Everybody pretty much knows it takes a stoned out drug addict to even attempt measuring inflation based on an arbitrary basket of goods like the bureau of government BS does. The appropriate words actually say.......Let us reason. But when humans are involved its...... Let us be dopers. And Greenspan must have started it anyways. Its all his fault. Just recently they decided to screw up the M1 money supply chart beyond all recognition like the good little dopers they are. Like we cant switch to looking at the MZM chart instead. Running 28 percent year over year right now. Nice little inflation rate for all the drug addicts and dopers running the show. Its not cynicism at all.......

#7 slupert

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 07:36 PM

LMF, what worries me is the potential for a stretched rubber band like nonlinear response to this unheralded, gradually impoverishing inflation which shafts the great unwashed huddled masses and enriches the one percenters.  Inflation has tugged and tugged on the hoi polloi human condition rubber band for the longest time and nothing has happened.  I fear when that response rubber reaches some final feather on the camel's back point and breaks whacking everyone left holding an end in some overwhelming US redneck equivalent of the Arab Spring.  At some point in the not too distant foggy future Joe 6 pack is going to figure out that he's being lied to and what's being done to him.  His response to this sudden epiphany ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

On the positive side, by my clock it's been 50 years since the inflation genie was let out of the bottle by Tricky Dickie and so far Joe is still clueless and the rubber is still stretching.  Amazing how this vulcanized wonder has lasted so long.  It was sorely tested during the reign of the peanut farmer, but survived intact.  Maybe it will be a miraculous rubber band and never break.

 

Regards,

DI think everybody knows the way we calculate inflation is archaic and always favorable to our debt structure. The average person isn't in the market every day looking to rent, maybe once a year or every couple years, but look at the weighting it has. Now for the bad news how many rents have gone year without being paid? If you lived here in NY you would see what I mean.



#8 slupert

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 07:40 PM

 

LMF, what worries me is the potential for a stretched rubber band like nonlinear response to this unheralded, gradually impoverishing inflation which shafts the great unwashed huddled masses and enriches the one percenters.  Inflation has tugged and tugged on the hoi polloi human condition rubber band for the longest time and nothing has happened.  I fear when that response rubber reaches some final feather on the camel's back point and breaks whacking everyone left holding an end in some overwhelming US redneck equivalent of the Arab Spring.  At some point in the not too distant foggy future Joe 6 pack is going to figure out that he's being lied to and what's being done to him.  His response to this sudden epiphany ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

On the positive side, by my clock it's been 50 years since the inflation genie was let out of the bottle by Tricky Dickie and so far Joe is still clueless and the rubber is still stretching.  Amazing how this vulcanized wonder has lasted so long.  It was sorely tested during the reign of the peanut farmer, but survived intact.  Maybe it will be a miraculous rubber band and never break.

 

Regards,

DI think everybody knows the way we calculate inflation is archaic and always favorable to our debt structure. The average person isn't in the market every day looking to rent, maybe once a year or every couple years, but look at the weighting it has. Now for the bad news how many rents have gone year without being paid? If you lived here in NY you would see what I mean.

 

2021 is the lowest increase since 2012, look it up in the link, also there are countless rents unpaid as well,

Rent price history from 1913 through 2021 (in2013dollars.com)



#9 slupert

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Posted 13 March 2021 - 07:46 PM

 

 

LMF, what worries me is the potential for a stretched rubber band like nonlinear response to this unheralded, gradually impoverishing inflation which shafts the great unwashed huddled masses and enriches the one percenters.  Inflation has tugged and tugged on the hoi polloi human condition rubber band for the longest time and nothing has happened.  I fear when that response rubber reaches some final feather on the camel's back point and breaks whacking everyone left holding an end in some overwhelming US redneck equivalent of the Arab Spring.  At some point in the not too distant foggy future Joe 6 pack is going to figure out that he's being lied to and what's being done to him.  His response to this sudden epiphany ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

On the positive side, by my clock it's been 50 years since the inflation genie was let out of the bottle by Tricky Dickie and so far Joe is still clueless and the rubber is still stretching.  Amazing how this vulcanized wonder has lasted so long.  It was sorely tested during the reign of the peanut farmer, but survived intact.  Maybe it will be a miraculous rubber band and never break.

 

Regards,

DI think everybody knows the way we calculate inflation is archaic and always favorable to our debt structure. The average person isn't in the market every day looking to rent, maybe once a year or every couple years, but look at the weighting it has. Now for the bad news how many rents have gone year without being paid? If you lived here in NY you would see what I mean.

 

2021 is the lowest increase since 2012, look it up in the link, also there are countless rents unpaid as well,

Rent price history from 1913 through 2021 (in2013dollars.com)

 

For Christ's sakes we are barely back to a75.5 capacity utilization rate, normally we don't look for the economy to over heat until we see readings in the mid 80's.Capacity Utilization: Total Index (TCU) | FRED | St. Louis Fed



#10 slupert

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 10:49 AM

 

LMF, what worries me is the potential for a stretched rubber band like nonlinear response to this unheralded, gradually impoverishing inflation which shafts the great unwashed huddled masses and enriches the one percenters.  Inflation has tugged and tugged on the hoi polloi human condition rubber band for the longest time and nothing has happened.  I fear when that response rubber reaches some final feather on the camel's back point and breaks whacking everyone left holding an end in some overwhelming US redneck equivalent of the Arab Spring.  At some point in the not too distant foggy future Joe 6 pack is going to figure out that he's being lied to and what's being done to him.  His response to this sudden epiphany ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

On the positive side, by my clock it's been 50 years since the inflation genie was let out of the bottle by Tricky Dickie and so far Joe is still clueless and the rubber is still stretching.  Amazing how this vulcanized wonder has lasted so long.  It was sorely tested during the reign of the peanut farmer, but survived intact.  Maybe it will be a miraculous rubber band and never break.

 

Regards,

DI think everybody knows the way we calculate inflation is archaic and always favorable to our debt structure. The average person isn't in the market every day looking to rent, maybe once a year or every couple years, but look at the weighting it has. Now for the bad news how many rents have gone year without being paid? If you lived here in NY you would see what I mean.

 

I think everybody knows the way we calculate inflation is archaic and always favorable to our debt structure. The average person isn't in the market every day looking to rent, maybe once a year or every couple years, but look at the weighting it has. Now for the bad news how many rents have gone year without being paid? If you lived here in NY you would see what I mean.