2864 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

Hopefully this is it for NEM, next Barrick Gold that's going to lose 50% of it value. This is the 2nd QTR that they lost money, but report fake non-GAAP earnings.

[jabat]

Metals Are Not In A Strong Pattern

By Avi

I have been racking my brain and running more calculations than I can explain to you to in order to discern the price structure in the metals complex.  But, nothing is providing a strong degree of clarity at this time.

This past week, the metals had an opportunity to again provide us with somewhat of a reasonable Fibonacci Pinball upside structure, and have again failed to do so.  Thus far, over the course of the last year, both the upside and downside ideal structures have failed many times.

Normally, when structures in a bullish larger degree structure fail, it means that the corrective structure has not completed, and we will need to maintain more patience before the next major rally takes shape.  However, in this case, I cannot adopt such a perspective at this time.

As you can see, I have revised the alt-corrective structures, which would suggest that the high from this past week may have been the top of a corrective b-wave structure, pointing us lower again.  But, until I see more evidence of this potential, I am not yet willing to adopt this.

The bigger degrees in the metals counts all suggest that we have much higher to still be seen.  But, the problem is that we have failed each time to see upside follow through in those ideal paths higher.  So, unfortunately, I am going to need to see a bit more action in the coming week before I can make a determination as to whether we have to turn protective again.

I have been dealing with metals for several decades now and they have always been one of my favored segments of the market to trade, as they usually have provided quite wonderful set ups on both the upside and downside.  Yet, to be quite honest, I cannot remember another time when we have had so many upside and downside structures fail to follow through all within a single region.   Unfortunately, it leaves me in a position of remaining net long the complex, with an eye towards a possible continuation of this correction.   For now, I am not doing anything further, and will simply await more information as the market provides us further wave structure in the coming week.  

I am sorry that I am unable to provide much more guidance for the coming week just yet, but I can only impart to you what the market shows to me.  And, at this time, it is not providing me with a clear upside or downside structure.  But, the one thing that I can say with certainty, and which I have reiterated for weeks now, is that the market has not provided us with a reason to be aggressive on either side of the trade right now, as neither side has provided us with a strong structure with which we can trade with a high degree of confidence in the near term.  So, without any strong indications, I must remain net long as the bigger patterns suggest we are still in a bull market with higher highs likely to come over the coming year or so. 

[dharma]

it is clear to me . 1933 ends this price cycle .1954 breaks into the next higher price cycle . market got to 1976 could not hold the higher price cycle and is now below 1933 . the top in 2011 was 1924 . that top held for 10years . this tells me this is very strong resistance. so i think we consolidate here. and then make a run for the higher price cycle.  

i also want to point out the 23.5-24 yr cycle and the shorter 7.83 -8yr cycle all point down into late 23 -2024 . now if the cycle shortened that is very bullish if not this is a time when the cycle points down .   

dharma

[gannman]

i am extremely bullish on this sector the pattern is up imo just my opinion

[senorBS]

i am extremely bullish on this sector the pattern is up imo just my opinion

amigo, anytime one seems "certain" is when they should be very careful, just my opinion FWIW. I know you follow NEM - to me that chart is starting to look ugly, y dos centavos. Keep in mind I am flat and recognize it is a very tough environment at least for me.

 

Senor

[dharma]

 

i am extremely bullish on this sector the pattern is up imo just my opinion

amigo, anytime one seems "certain" is when they should be very careful, just my opinion FWIW. I know you follow NEM - to me that chart is starting to look ugly, y dos centavos. Keep in mind I am flat and recognize it is a very tough environment at least for me.

 

Senor

 

HI SENOR , yes it is a very tough environment.  it seems to me the fed is the  key. if they do not raise rates that gives inflation free range to go alot higher. russia accounts for 9% of world oil output . take them off the market and the price will go higher. oil is the grease that makes everything work. higher prices of oil will filter through to higher costs for essentials.  then gold will continue this leg higher.  i think that takes some time.  i did some culling and now i am on the buy, waiting 

dharma

i cant see how these sanctions are good for the world economy. spy, dia, qqq are all below their 200dma  when this distribution finishes we are going down

Edited by dharma, 28 February 2022 - 12:56 PM.

[gannman]

we have one more drop in gdx i believe fwiw 

[dharma]

gold prem iums are about 80 which is high silver premiums are about 5 per coin , kind of middlin.  it seems supply of real physical gold is in short supply. last week on the comex a whole years production changed hands in 4 market days. gold is still not making headlines

dharma

[gannman]

vale   i believe this stock is going to the low to mid 20's fwiw

[gannman]

on gld it would not surprise me to see gld make it to 188 area fwiw