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AAII This Morning's Comments


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 09:57 AM

Conclusion
Last time, I said that the SH traders had covered up 86% of their sizeable short position and as of last night, they had covered up 87%. This is no longer supportive of the market. Last night, the ITBM (Intermediate-term Breadth Momentum) joined Cumulative Breadth in going to a Sell. "Best Trend" is now on a confirmed Sell, but, oddly, it turned up, marginally. Momentum is still negative but not oversold, and that implies more weakness before decent low can be made (that is supported by momentum). This morning, II has gone to a Sell, and AAII actually shows more Bulls and less Bears as the market has corrected. This is bad for the stock market's prospects. It implies that the Amateurs have been trained to buy the dip. They are very likely to be punished. This morning, the VIX P/C is Bullish for the market and we have a confirmed VIX RSI Buy, but this latter is only marginal. Yesterday, I thought that we might rally early, pull back, then close higher on the day. It was looking good there for a bit but the close was rotten. The FL/FS 2X Sell did get right, though. The TYX is looking like it's breaking its parabolic rise, and that is good, though not actionable. The Sentiment situation is not good for the market here, in the face of obvious weakness. Amateurs getting more Bulled up suggests that we are in for a shellacking soon. Expect the VIX to spike shortly. I think we don't want to be too quick to start bottoming picking.


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#2 jesteronyer6

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 10:14 AM

Thanks


I love my country, I fear my government.

#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 10:22 AM

AAII: https://schrts.co/nBSpFHvN

 

March 16:

VIX and the IDES of March!

 

Mike Burk:

March-Seasonal-2021.png



#4 brucekeller

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 10:59 AM

3/16 is also when qqq failed to break back above its trend line from March 2020.

#5 da_cheif

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 11:23 AM

Conclusion
Last time, I said that the SH traders had covered up 86% of their sizeable short position and as of last night, they had covered up 87%. This is no longer supportive of the market. Last night, the ITBM (Intermediate-term Breadth Momentum) joined Cumulative Breadth in going to a Sell. "Best Trend" is now on a confirmed Sell, but, oddly, it turned up, marginally. Momentum is still negative but not oversold, and that implies more weakness before decent low can be made (that is supported by momentum). This morning, II has gone to a Sell, and AAII actually shows more Bulls and less Bears as the market has corrected. This is bad for the stock market's prospects. It implies that the Amateurs have been trained to buy the dip. They are very likely to be punished. This morning, the VIX P/C is Bullish for the market and we have a confirmed VIX RSI Buy, but this latter is only marginal. Yesterday, I thought that we might rally early, pull back, then close higher on the day. It was looking good there for a bit but the close was rotten. The FL/FS 2X Sell did get right, though. The TYX is looking like it's breaking its parabolic rise, and that is good, though not actionable. The Sentiment situation is not good for the market here, in the face of obvious weakness. Amateurs getting more Bulled up suggests that we are in for a shellacking soon. Expect the VIX to spike shortly. I think we don't want to be too quick to start bottoming picking.

https://www.timeandd...om/moon/phases/



#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 11:50 AM

It looks to me this is just to suck more bears before another ramp up ..................



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 02:57 PM

Then again, maybe we should have been quick to pick a bottom!!! LOL! This market... <SMH>

Seriously, though, none of my bottom spotters have gone off. NAAIM did flash a ST Buy, however this morning at 11ish.

 

Mark


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#8 slupert

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 05:48 PM

Then again, maybe we should have been quick to pick a bottom!!! LOL! This market... <SMH>

Seriously, though, none of my bottom spotters have gone off. NAAIM did flash a ST Buy, however this morning at 11ish.

 

Mark

I was hoping for a ST bottom today, op ex tomorrow, T plus 2 for end of quarter window dressing. I'll just set some SST's in the NQ's because of the possible TNX bounce. I do think we will head much lower at some time, we are down 11%, I think we hit 20 easy maybe 25%, but when?? (JMHO)