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Looking for SPX 3837/38 by March 30th!

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#11 12SPX

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 07:53 AM

We made an irr. 'y' of "x" wave top today as wave "W" of Y ended as a Double 3 late Friday.

The ST TLC tells me that the low should be tomorrow around 3836, but I have seen them follow through into the next day early on, so we must consider a March 31 low at or near 3830 SPX as a possibility.

I have April 1 at 4001/02 SPX.

Whew, now that's biden=volatility! 



#12 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 08:58 AM

My 3837 target for the SPX could easily be hit in the first hour 3/31 (current range 3837-44).  A minimum rally to around 3964/67 would then be expected by late April 1.  Yesterday was an irregular top and was an octave TD cycle from the FED meeting top of March 17, which itself was irregular. Depending on the expected 3/31 to 4/1 rally, I would think that by April 7 we see the 3774/77 area tested. April 7-14 should be a strong rally impulse and test the 4014 area.



#13 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 09:13 AM

So...the February forecast for a major crash of up to 38% for March is off the table?

 

Fib

I admit I was early. My thinking now is 36/37% crash April 14-July 6



#14 brucekeller

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 09:27 AM

Blu, how was your track record in calling the big bull surges starting mid-March 2020 and late October 2020 btw? Nail those? 


Edited by brucekeller, 30 March 2021 - 09:27 AM.


#15 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 11:16 AM

The SPX made an irregular top yesterday, which complicates things.

These kinds of tops can fulfill higher prices almost immediately or sometimes they can lag.  The rising wedge bottom will be at about 3842 SPX tomorrow morning. There is the possibility that we hit that and either fail at a higher low (3967?) or make a new high at 3989.  Also, it can stop at 3864 and rally to 3989 from there by April 1. Another buy point could be 3876 on 3/31 and a rally to just over 4001 by April 1. There a few minor possibilities other than what I just laid out, but I'm going to lay them aside for now until later. ABC type waves are complicated, especially when you get into corrective waves within corrective waves, and that is what is happening now (we are in Wave B of an ABC rally off the March 4 low). I have not seen a true 5 wave sequence since late 1999.

The SPX needs to pull back into the upper 3770's (in my book) by April 7, in order to fulfill the E-Wave Equality of Waves Principle (March 4-11) and come back up from a break of the rising wedge to the rising tops line just recently established over the past few weeks.

As I had previously mentioned, we had shifted recently from a dominant 8/16 trading day cycle to a 4/8, which is why the market is so choppy right now.  The March 4 low was a 16+7 low and the expected low on April 7 is tracing out the same cycle only this time 16-1(+8) TD's. It is still the same 23 TD cycle either way you slice it or dice it.



#16 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 11:22 AM

Bruce,

 

I nailed the March 2020 crash and the exact day of the low. I also nailed the late Sept 2020 low. The October low and rally into November kind of caught me off guard due to the election crap that was going on (I was paying more attention to that than the market itself). Mea Culpa sad.png

 

Blu, how was your track record in calling the big bull surges starting mid-March 2020 and late October 2020 btw? Nail those? 



#17 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 12:20 PM

Right now my readings says we gap down to around 3875 SPX and then rally hard into April 1 to new highs into the 3990's.

 

I found 2 new TLC lows: April 6 and April 12. This market is now running a perfect 32 TD top on April 1 and then shifts into 15/11 TD pattern last seen on Oct 30 (it was a little different).  April 1 and 7 are Bradley turns, likely to be tops. The new moon turn looks to be a low not high.  There are also Bradley turns on April 9 and 11.  April 9 is Mars sq. Neptune muy malo. The next Bradley turn is April 18 (4/19) which is a major one,

 

We have a TLC low due March 30/31, then April 6 and then April 12/13.



#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 02:17 PM

VIX telling: SPX down with VIX down today >>> Market Up tomorrow, could be a big up day though ...............


Edited by redfoliage2, 30 March 2021 - 02:18 PM.


#19 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 02:40 PM

This looks a setup for a gap-up tomorrow if SPX ends the day in red ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 30 March 2021 - 02:42 PM.


#20 blustar

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 02:57 PM

Gap down to the 3871-77 SPX level looks highly likely early Wednesday. I'm looking for a low around 1.25 hrs into the session same as last Thursday.  This would be 'c' of "z" of B of an ABC rally off the March 25 low. Looking for 3996-4002 by late April 1. April 1 is important top for traders as we likely sell -off into April 12/13 ABC down with A April 6, B April 7 and C April 12 for the SPX and April 13 for other indexes.







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