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My Fearless Forecast


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#1 slupert

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 11:29 AM

melt up(maybe a slight down first)Then the new and final high of the year will be  in the latter part, 3rd-4th week of April, 4146, then we correct to 3192(JMHO) Feel free to print out this post. it and $1.75 will get ya a cup of coffee.

 



#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 12:41 PM

$1.75 will get ya a cup of coffee

.

WHERE?  LOL.

 

Not at Starbucks!!!

I used to take my 17 year old Grand daughter to work at Walmart making maybe $12 an hour and she only worked 20 hours a week.

She always had to stop at Starbucks and drop $8 before work.

 

I tried to explain to her that she had to work 2 hours for that cup of coffee when 5 minutes ago she could have got one at home for free!

 

For $8 I want a shot of Baily's Irish Creme at least.

 

Maybe Bourbon....

 

But 5 years later on commission sales, she now makes 6 figures instead of $6 and is buying her first starter home for $250,000.

My Scottish self is in shock...


Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 April 2021 - 12:50 PM.


#3 steadyquest

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 02:52 PM

A eurphoric meltup might be expected to be powerful enough to induce intense fomo in hardcore holdouts, enticing them to board ship just prior to its fateful rendezvous with the iceberg.

 

Below is a reassessment of the S&P floor and price levels.

 

SPX-floor.png

 

 

SPX.png

 

The target is only about 10% higher than today's price - should be easy in light of the current hysteria.  If the price screams back up to the top rail it could finish before the end of May - hopefully not coincident with war or terr0r as an excuse for any pullback.

 

The target is nearly the same as that from a possible scenario earlier suggested for the election rally.

 

S-P.png

 

     

And it's not materially different from an earlier guess.

 

S-P2.png



#4 pdx5

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 04:00 PM

The coward in my brain overruled the bravado in my chest, and I pulled the trigger yesterday to liquidate half of my long holdings in taxable accounts. The tax deferred accounts I liquidated before end of 2020. All these long holdings were bought in March & April 2020. Hope the market will not crash before end of this April and I can be out 100%, all with long term cap gains. Soon will be back in high yield bond funds.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 tsharp

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 03:26 PM

I made this FF back on 06.03.21, ~4008, though if things get really euphoric, the higher target of ~4406 is also possible... twt.

 

SPX-D-04-01-21-HP20-W.jpg



#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 06:07 PM

I always appreciate your posts T sharp. Market Geometry

You should have been a surgeon.

I am more of a hand-grenade "marksman". LOL.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 April 2021 - 06:10 PM.


#7 pdx5

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 11:04 AM

Hand grenades can kill lot of enemy soldiers without requiring much skill or accuracy yes.gif

That is how I play the market. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 An Ant

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Posted 13 April 2021 - 08:51 PM

melt up(maybe a slight down first)Then the new and final high of the year will be  in the latter part, 3rd-4th week of April, 4146, then we correct to 3192(JMHO) Feel free to print out this post. it and $1.75 will get ya a cup of coffee.

 

 

Almost there ahead of time. Any changes to target and/or second part of the forecast?



#9 12SPX

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Posted 14 April 2021 - 09:16 AM

Gotta say that was a nice forcast and you stuck with it to the end without changing!!