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Extreme ST Euphoria - pullback then APRIL IT HIGH


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:15 PM

Quite extreme ST euphoria and exuberance but this can continue for at least another week to SPX 4100/25. Pullback most likely followed by an IT HIGH and then down.  This is from a FOREX page I use for USD analysis:

 

"Equities remain in monster rally mode, ignoring everything that could potentially make them sell off. We are now nearly 100% higher since the 2020 Covid lows – a frankly astonishing feat. It seems that monetary and fiscal stimulus is a force that overpowers everything else, pushing us to new all-time highs. Last week the S&P500 index rose 1.6% to 4039 points, and the DAX gained 2.2% to 15203 points.
 
Bonds had a forgettable week, with the US Treasuries remaining dislocated to most other major government bonds. The 10y Bund traded sideways and remains in negative yield territory, but the 10y UST yield is still above the breakout point. The global search for yield and relative value trades could be a strong force that drags the yield lower, but for now it remains above 1.50%. Last week it rose 2bps to close at 1.68%.

 

....The Week Ahead:

Why should the week ahead be any different to the previous one? Is there any reason or trigger that can cause risk assets to move lower? The market seems to think that it’s a one-way train, and for now bulls are well in control. Data-wise we have some employment and PMI data which could be interesting, but it’s otherwise a quiet week. Good luck! "

 

https://www.forexanalytix.com/

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:18 PM

Very BULLISH poll results!

68 % bullish, 32 % bearish 

 

 
 
The results are in!!! Folks are the most bulled up they have been in the (almost) one year I have been doing this poll. You guys missed 70% up (bulls) by a fraction!!!
 
 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
 
UP
68.5%
 
DOWN
31.5%
3,375 votes·Final results

Edited by dTraderB, 04 April 2021 - 02:19 PM.


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:21 PM

Taking a few days off, but sharing a #MysteryBroker update from before Monday’s open. He reiterates he sees unfavorable setup for broad market: 5% upside vs ~15% possible downside over the next few months. The +5%, if it comes, would be over the next few weeks. He’d take profits.
The
#MysteryBroker

doesn’t like retail-investor bullishness, figures the 40% drop in hypergrowth stocks (which he called in Jan.) and quick small-cap correction will ultimate roll into the main indexes - even dinging his value stocks which he sees outperforming for years to come.

The #MysteryBroker likes Big Pharma and other low-volatility names as relative shelter over a corrective period for the market.

 

 


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:28 PM

I am spending more time studying the experts' USD analysis, also BOND analysis, because these will be more important in the weeks and months ahead. 

 

10yr yield back to 1.2% ??  One analyst forecast.... not me, can't remember where and who

 

Useful calendar

https://www.fxstreet...onomic-calendar

 

US Dollar Index challenges 93.00 on solid NFP

 

https://www.fxstreet...fp-202104021233



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:30 PM

An APRIL equity market TOP?

 

Clarifying Oil's 10-Year Message For Stocks
Tom McClellan |  April 02, 2021 at 11:08 PM
 

ceb60406-623a-4a87-91ad-6ef132b30ddb.jpg

It is now officially April and, in past posts, I have noted that the leading indication message from crude has called for a stock market top due in April 2021. This should be the 10-year echo of the monthly closing price top in oil prices in April 2011. But what exactly does it mean to expect an April 2021 major stock market price top?

Looking closer, we can see that "10 years" does not always mean 10.0000000 years. The 10-year lag is not always perfectly accurate. Sometimes the turns come early, sometimes late and that does not invalidate its message. To use this tool and its insights means that we must accept that the message about the timing of the turns might not be perfectly punctual.

1a3866f6-42b3-4af1-9bea-670b5766d771.jpg

The December 2018 bottom for stock prices was a really scary moment. And it was one month off from the 10-year echo of the January 2009 bottom in crude oil prices. That is a relatively narrow amount of time-lag disagreement. At past turns, the amount of lag has been +/- 6 months. So expecting a stock market top to come in at exactly April 2021 just because of an oil price top in April 2011 means expecting more precision in this relationship than has historically been the case. 

 

https://stockcharts....essage-501.html



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:31 PM

Not surprising but still a darn BULLISH report!

 

https://www.cnbc.com...s-recovery.html



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:33 PM

Tom is starring ...

 

https://www.cnbc.com...market-dip.html



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:34 PM

I think it can hit 200 before another decline

 

McClellanOsc_1017.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:37 PM

‘Increasingly euphoric’ stock-market sentiment on verge of sending ‘sell’ signal
Last Updated: April 2, 2021 at 7:56 a.m. ET
First Published: April 1, 2021 at 12:26 p.m. ET
Cyclical rebound, vaccine, stimulus appear priced into the market: BofA ‘Increasingly euphoric’ stock-market sentiment on verge of sending ‘sell’ signal
Last Updated: April 2, 2021 at 7:56 a.m. ET
First Published: April 1, 2021 at 12:26 p.m. ET
Cyclical rebound, vaccine, stimulus appear priced into the market: BofA

 

https://marketwatch....lo-jrdtauklu-h/



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:40 PM

Another one blowing up? 

 

https://www.marketwa...yst-51617288692

Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation fund has had a rough March after a scintillating stretch for the once-highflying exchange-traded fund, but there may be more gut-wrenching volatility in store for the ETF, according to at least one analyst, who cautions investors.

Morningstar’s Robby Greengold has initiated the Ark Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) at a “neutral” rating but describes the potential pitfalls for Wood’s popular ETF in unflattering terms in a Wednesday research report, describing the Ark Investment Management crew as an “inexperienced team” with “lax risk controls” making the unit “ill-prepared to grapple with a major plot twist.”

Greengold says that Ark Innovation’s portfolio “has become less liquid and more vulnerable to severe losses as its size has swelled.”

Indeed, the ETF has suffered a dizzying decline in recent weeks which has it down 23% from its recent peak put in on Feb. 15 at $156.58, FactSet data show, which meets the widely used definition for a bear market. The fund had managed around $23 billion near its peak.