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Extreme ST Euphoria - pullback then APRIL IT HIGH


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:44 PM

Maybe, but this can go on for weeks, typical of  bubbles

 

You wouldn't know it by the last couple of days, Friday in particular, but the past few months have been dominated by late-day selling pressure.

The Cumulative Last Hour indicator looks at the last hour of trading in the S&P 500 fund, SPY. If the fund rises during that hour, then the indicator adds 1 to the running total. If it drops, then it subtracts 1.

Recent months have seen a continual erosion in the indicator, to the point where it's at the lowest level in 6 years. When stocks have been persistent hitting new highs while the Last Hour indicator was plumbing new lows, it has been a warning sign.

20210329-130901_1617023341066.jpg

What may be especially notable about the current behavior is just how persistent the selling has been during the last hour. Over the past 3 months, the indicator has dropped 5%, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's the biggest drop in 25 years. 

https://sentimentrad...ney-is-selling/



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:49 PM

Not a great week, but the end of a profitable March & Q1 2021. April started with a loss

 

27 SPY PUTS.
40 VXX CALLS

ES HEDGE LONG 4012.5

 

-----

Banking a 30 point ES profit
Will reopen later
 

dTraderB, on 31 Mar 2021 - 4:12 PM, said:snapback.png

Opened ES HEDGE LONG 3966.5

24 SPY PUTS.
38 VXX CALLS



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:52 PM

So far this is the big takeaway: the huge jobs gains come on the heels of furloughed/temporarily out-of-work individuals getting re-employed. It is not a sign of a hot labor market - yet - pulling in those more permanently unemployed.
 
 
9zykNiN8_normal.jpg
 
BOOOOOOOOOOOOM 916K jobs created. CRUSHING expectations of 660K. Last month revised higher. Unemployment rate falls to 6.0% Stock futures at their highs of the morning https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/asia-set-for-gains-after-u-s-stocks-hit-record-markets-wrap?srnd=premium&sref=vuYGislZ


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:52 PM

Have a great weekend! This was a major breakout week for #ES_F - RSI though is now in nosebleed territory Plan next week: Next breakout targets are 4065 (strong resistance) then 4130. But, pullback likely in order 1st. Must hold 3995-75 or this was a bull trap. Detail below $SPX


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 02:53 PM

Note: As we are in melt up mode extremely hard to predict where pullbacks will occur. 4030 is mild resistance with 4065 being strong and if it goes direct id expect a pullback there, which should be buyable. As usual, will read price and trade the levels as it unfolds next week


#16 da_cheif

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 07:12 PM

yawnnnn  .......bull mkts are so booooooring......get used to it.........



#17 12SPX

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 08:08 AM

Is so boring I know chief, not up very much for the year and sitting with a massive risk factor lol!  Nonetheless the good news is I just got my short to 4002.  Just waiting patiently for my biden=volatility to kick in.  Also added to my 4100 April calls to bring my average sell up to $10.25, 4150 calls $4.00 and took profits on my sold 3500 April puts for a nice even $10.  Calls are super rich in price indicating bullishness through the roof.  Gonna be an interesting week for sure....



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 08:38 AM

closing ES HEDGE LONG with minimum 30 points profit, will keep an existing NQ daytrade LONG until ES hedge  is reopened lower later

 

 

Not a great week, but the end of a profitable March & Q1 2021. April started with a loss

 

27 SPY PUTS.
40 VXX CALLS

ES HEDGE LONG 4012.5

 

-----

Banking a 30 point ES profit
Will reopen later
 

dTraderB, on 31 Mar 2021 - 4:12 PM, said:snapback.png

Opened ES HEDGE LONG 3966.5

24 SPY PUTS.
38 VXX CALLS

 



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 09:00 AM

+36.5 points

NQ HEDGE LONG 13462.25

29 SPY PUTS

need VXX to drop a bit more to add new CALLS with LIMIT ORDER lower than current price

 

 

closing ES HEDGE LONG with minimum 30 points profit, will keep an existing NQ daytrade LONG until ES hedge  is reopened lower later

 

 

Not a great week, but the end of a profitable March & Q1 2021. April started with a loss

 

27 SPY PUTS.
40 VXX CALLS

ES HEDGE LONG 4012.5

 

-----

Banking a 30 point ES profit
Will reopen later
 

dTraderB, on 31 Mar 2021 - 4:12 PM, said:snapback.png

Opened ES HEDGE LONG 3966.5

24 SPY PUTS.
38 VXX CALLS

 

 



#20 12SPX

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 09:06 AM

Nice!  You know your getting 12.8 billion of pomo when you see bond yields and the volatility index higher on the day lol!  A week ago that would tank the tech market.  Will be interesting to see if we hold the day lol!