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Dangerously extended Market at or near ST top


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:11 PM

Market raced ahead, bears massacred, no one left to sell! 

 

Extremely exhausting previous OPEX week seems to be continuing this Sunday evening. 

Second consecutive losing week in 2021, 2 up days & 3 down days.

 

53 SPY PUTS

700 VIX LONg

37 VXX CALLS

ES HEDGE LONG 4163 

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:12 PM

Have a great weekend! Zooming out in #ES_F reveals where this melt-up phase is headed. Since 2016s low its formed another big "megaphone" pattern. We hit support in Feb 2020, resistance now 4280 Plan next week: Pullback likely, but should be buyable to 4280. Detail below. $SPX


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:15 PM

Market Vane Bulls 57, highest since late April 2019
 
Odd thing is I heard no one complaining about the low volume this week. Yet, the 10 dma of NYSE volume is well, low.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:22 PM

McClellanOsc_1027.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:23 PM

The market’s latest “immaculate rotation” is punishing the cautious and heating the rally toward melt-up mode. The economic path is true and yields are tame, volume is muted as sellers snooze. What's not to like? Weekend

column.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...good-thing.html



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:24 PM

Market bull predicts stocks could surge another 8% by July, but lacks clarity on rest of year

 

https://www.cnbc.com...ted-hermes.html



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:27 PM

 
 
 
Yes, distance of $SPX from its 200 day MA is very stretched. But you already knew that from dozens of indicators & #sentiment metrics. Looking at LT chart, we see a cluster ~15-17% readings during the powerful momentum driven market of the mid to late 1990s. h/t
 
 
 
Yes, distance of $SPX from its 200 day MA is very stretched. But you already knew that from dozens of indicators & #sentiment metrics. Looking at LT chart, we see a cluster ~15-17% readings during the powerful momentum driven market of the mid to late 1990s. h/t


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:46 PM

SPX 6000 !

 

In fact, in mid-March, I wrote an article entitled "The March Rally Was Good - April Will Be Better." As we now know, the market bottomed at 3853SPX, and the rally we have seen off that low has been quite impressive and I believe we have much higher to go in 2021.

"...While my expectation was for a 550-point rally off the 3850SPX support region, we have now traveled over 300 of those 550 points, and in only three weeks. So, while I see potential for us to see a pullback/consolidation to begin over the coming week or so, I am seeing the 4400SPX region as a nice round target to be struck as we move into the month of May.

But, please recognize that the 4070-4100SPX region is now our new support region. As long as we remain over that support, then I foresee this rally to continue until the 4400SPX region in a more direct fashion."

https://seekingalpha...ve-2021-targets



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 07:50 PM

Krugman Wonks Out: The Case for Supercore Inflation

If Thursday’s retail sales report is anything to go by — and it is — we’re about to see a really big boom. Between stimulus checks and vaccinations, we’re very likely headed for a year of growth faster than anything since 1984. Happy times are here again!

But what about inflation? The debate we’ve been having over whether the American Rescue Plan is excessive is kind of surreal for those who remember the macro debates after 2008; this time, economists on the other side are neither knaves nor fools. There are indeed reasons to be worried about inflationary overheating. In fact, even those of us who think it will be OK expect to see above-normal inflation this year. We just think it will be a blip.

 

https://www.nytimes....tail-sales.html



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 19 April 2021 - 09:11 AM

ES HEDGE LONG 4156 LIMIT