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Dangerously extended Market at or near ST top


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#21 12SPX

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Posted 20 April 2021 - 11:42 AM

Average now 4124, continue to build!



#22 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 07:53 AM

Could go down some more but am surprused it has not broken below ES 4090 by close yesterday

Starting a new short build at 4120, gonna spread this out as this retracement is likely not done yet!



#23 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 07:54 AM

Frenetic hectic trading during last 2 days. Nice profits, trimmed SHORT positions, big NQ daytrade positions.

#24 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 07:56 AM

This combination of valuation + volatility has only been seen a few other times

https://www.sentimen...ew-other-times/

#25 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 07:58 AM

Another USEFUL opinion:
"So which is it? An insignficant wobble on our way higher? Or the start of the next downturn?

Since both of these outcomes start the same way, looking backward wont give us the answer. Instead, we have to look toward what comes next, most importantly, what happens Wednesday. If prices slump at the open and the selling accelerates, this dip isnt done and we still have a ways to go. On the other hand, open weak, bounce off of those early lows, and close well above those lows, the worst is already behind us.

This divergence on Wednesday forms the basis for our next trade. Bounce and close well, that is a buy signal with a stop under the intraday lows. If Wednesdays selling cannot find a bottom, lock-in profits in our existing positions and agressive traders can short a violation of 4,100 with a stop just above this level."

#26 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 08:00 AM

3800??

"Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?

Recently, Bank of Americas Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.

This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates.

More importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history.

What Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the good news already priced in?

Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news. We remain bullish the economy but not the S&P 500. Our technical model, 12-month Price Momentum, has recently turned bearish amid extreme returns over the past year.

With investors all in, we suspect a correction is more likely than not."
https://realinvestme...t-drop-to-3800/

#27 12SPX

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 08:08 AM

Market is in an interesting place as it needs to correct at least down to 4190 to get around a -2% correction but it just doesn't wanna go so its hanging onto that mini crash mode.  If it was a healthy market it would have hit that -2% quickly then back up again but so far I'm feeling this tape is giving me bad vibes.  I added to my short overnight now averaging 4126, profit stop 4125 and will just start reselling above it until we at least see under the 4100 level with a good flush otherwise ya maybe that 3800 level is possible! 



#28 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 08:10 AM

Thinking along similar path:

Damon Pavlatos (@DamonPavlatos) tweeted at 9:01 am on Wed, Apr 21, 2021:
The indices continued the sell-off from Monday. The ON sessions had a small bounce & then a push back down. The ES may to test RT lows but stay above the 4100 level. Above 4133 or below 4100 we may see a directional move otherwise we can consolidate a bit. Pivot =4125 #ES_F $SPY https://t.co/gkM0iV8X8e
(https://twitter.com/...3338961930?s=03)

#29 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 08:18 AM

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) tweeted at 7:36 am on Wed, Apr 21, 2021:
Also coming up on @realmoney
https://t.co/AtoMNkvAGW
The Day Speculation Died
* A man who tries to carry a cat home by it's tail will learn a lesson that can be learned in no other way
* For months I have been vehemently warning about the risks associated with trading and
(https://twitter.com/...7281723394?s=03)

#30 dTraderB

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Posted 21 April 2021 - 08:19 AM

ARK! ARK!! TESLA!! NETFLUX!!

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) tweeted at 6:25 am on Wed, Apr 21, 2021:
Coming up on @realmoney
ARK Invest's Investment and Trading Moves Are Growing More Quizzical
* Yesterday I questioned ARK's puzzling trading in and out of $SPCE
* Today I am equally confused by ARK's trading in and out of Twitter $TWTR
* This is not investing, it is trading
(https://twitter.com/...7044071424?s=03)