17 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Ya thats the difference though.  According to your AAII number extremes needed to get bearish on the market, a person would have hung on through the 2000 correction and the financial crisis.  I made 600 points on the 2000 correction and 800 on the 08 fall lol!!  You obviously didn't follow your own AAII numbers then so......its better to take Marks interpretation of them! 

[Rogerdodger]

I notice that there have been several market stalls (See: 2018, 2019, 2020) when the !AAIIBULL-!AAIIBEAR 50ma crosses up through the 200ma and also the MACD of !AAIIBULL-!AAIIBEAR crossed down (as it just did).

 

https://schrts.co/rvuqBERC

[12SPX]

Thanks Roger that makes sense to, the chief would've likely made a lot more money over the years just following those swings instead of hanging on through all of those declines waiting for those 87 extreme readings again lol!!  JK of course I'm just trying to make a point lol!  

[pdx5]

Thanks Roger that makes sense to, the chief would've likely made a lot more money over the years just following those swings instead of hanging on through all of those declines waiting for those 87 extreme readings again lol!!  JK of course I'm just trying to make a point lol!  

Don't even need to follow AAII or any other indicators. Just sell in May and get back in after Halloween and if followed with discipline, would be much more profitable than any perma-bull.  

[OEXCHAOS]

 

Thanks Roger that makes sense to, the chief would've likely made a lot more money over the years just following those swings instead of hanging on through all of those declines waiting for those 87 extreme readings again lol!!  JK of course I'm just trying to make a point lol!  

Don't even need to follow AAII or any other indicators. Just sell in May and get back in after Halloween and if followed with discipline, would be much more profitable than any perma-bull.  

 

I still use the "Best 6 Months" strategy, as least as background. But I always have respected Sy Harding's addition of a trend overlay to trigger action. He used the MACD, which is fine, though a bit over-followed.

 

I suspect BP or something similar might work a bit better.

 

[qqqqtrdr]

Well...   AAII is one signal, there are other signals as well,  10-day Put/Call Ratios are somewhat bearish as well, and Rydex Ratio is also showing low money market...   It is a sign that we should be at a medium term top...      I have noticed other aspects I watch such as US Growth Rate is currently solid at around 8% and with the Fed supply income to people this should supply inflows through end of June..    New Home Sales and Car Sales are extremely strong as well considering...   I think the strong economic headline numbers currently justifies the high PE....

[da_cheif]

 

Thanks Roger that makes sense to, the chief would've likely made a lot more money over the years just following those swings instead of hanging on through all of those declines waiting for those 87 extreme readings again lol!!  JK of course I'm just trying to make a point lol!  

Don't even need to follow AAII or any other indicators. Just sell in May and get back in after Halloween and if followed with discipline, would be much more profitable than any perma-bull.  

 

u dont outperforrn the sp unless u sell go short at the tops and go long at the bottoms.....mark would agree with that   .....timer digest tracked my service    

[pdx5]

 

u dont outperforrn the sp unless u sell go short at the tops and go long at the bottoms.....mark would agree with that   .....timer digest tracked my service    

 

I am sure Cheif your timing is superb. But I am now a lazy investor, buying only index funds when market dips about 20%, and

get  the heck out when there is 20-30% profit. Market still has cycles of 20% up and down every 2-3 years.