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"Sell on the BPSPX Continues, no new T."


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 22 May 2021 - 07:49 PM

https://ttheorygroup.science.blog/

"There’s an ominous development in the companion chart. While we bounced off the middle Keltner band, it’s the second time we’ve done so. Additionally, the 55 day EMA has now moved below the trend line on that companion chart.

We continue to have a sell on the BPSPX.

And there is no T."

 

From a couple of weeks ago: "We Need to see a lower low below -77 on $NYUD"

T-Theory-5-22-2021.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 May 2021 - 08:20 PM.


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 02:34 AM

 We continue to have a sell on the BPSPX.

 

Not in the classic sense...if anything, it continues to show that the price index is in a corrective sequence of a strong uptrend.

 

Fib

 

http://technicalwatc...pxbpi052121.png


spxbpi052121.png


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#3 Douglas

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 08:33 AM

Rodgerdodger, I was also a fan of Terry Laundry's work.  I believe one of his other stock market indicators, the FAGIX/VUSTX ratio, has recently given a sell signal based on my trend line interpretation of his indicator which is shown below.   

 

 aliVxc9.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 10:19 AM

Not in the classic sense...if anything, it continues to show that the price index is in a corrective sequence of a strong uptrend.

 

True.

But "T Theory was never about shorting the end of a T, but finding a new investment period that will show greater strength, after a period of cash buildup. Price can and very often does move higher after a T ends."

 

Or as Terry himself explains his theory:

A simpler way to put it is to say the market can only “make a strong run as long as it has previously ”rested”. As you might expect, the practical purpose of the theory is to anticipate the runs of “superior returns”.

LINK

 

As I remember, Terry especially used this in switching between 2 bond funds, FAGIX vs VUSTX, as Doug comments above.

Today, with ETFs, one could also use HYG vs LQD

He would buy high yielding bonds in bullish market phases and then switch to "safer" Treasuries as conditions changed.

This simple Bond technique at times offered him better returns than the stock market!

 

(Of course that was before all of the government QE helicopter money.)

 

Note how the price advance slowed at the end of a short range T (based on the Volume Oscillator) in Terry's chart below.

 

T-Theory-Short-range.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 May 2021 - 11:05 AM.


#5 slupert

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Posted 24 May 2021 - 04:29 PM

https://ttheorygroup.science.blog/

"There’s an ominous development in the companion chart. While we bounced off the middle Keltner band, it’s the second time we’ve done so. Additionally, the 55 day EMA has now moved below the trend line on that companion chart.

We continue to have a sell on the BPSPX.

And there is no T."

 

From a couple of weeks ago: "We Need to see a lower low below -77 on $NYUD"

T-Theory-5-22-2021.jpg

Roger, is that link the best for learning T theory. If you have any please post them. Thank you



#6 bigbud

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Posted 25 May 2021 - 04:06 AM

my data shows SPX still is overbought, and this rally since October is near the normal historical "limits" (timewise)
Breaking up bullish from here would suggest another... say 20TDs of rally before next setup for a top... which would make this trend since October "too" long.
So next couple days will show - I still expect more downside next weeks. But then you can buy the dip :)



#7 bunker

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Posted 31 May 2021 - 12:30 PM


What has happened to price in the last month, or since the last T ended? Absolutely nothing. We had a roughly 5% correction, but have recovered. That recovery did not create a new T, but did create a short term buying opportunity as we bounced from the mid Keltner band.
full-ec92f7365734acc0b865a78dee73611b522

Those that followed the larger T from the point of recognition on November 22 had access to an investment period that saw SPX move from about 3550 to 4211. If you hedged or traded the shorter term Ts within the period you might have done even better. But there are still no new Ts. We are still in the T on the ten year bond that expects higher rates till December 2021. That T was opened last December, and has seen the ten year double.
 



#8 Rogerdodger

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Posted 31 May 2021 - 06:34 PM

One of my problems with T Theory is found in this statement:

"Let’s put that into a simple practical thought. If you consider that the positive effect of price moving lower is creating a cash buildup, then the negative effect of price moving higher is the depletion of that cash buildup."

 

I view that as having some logic for Terry's theory, but we must also consider that the stock market is made up of companies with their own ever changing cash build-up,(or draw-down) thru profits.

Add to that "rotation and re-balancing"

 

Also, this year we have seen the US Treasury dumping free money on the poker table, thus eliminating overall "draw downs".

 

Kinda like losing money on a poker table and reasoning that now there's more money on the table for you to win back?


Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 May 2021 - 11:18 PM.