Jump to content



Photo

NDX and Fang at critical juncture at End of May


  • Please log in to reply
10 replies to this topic

#1 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,076 posts

Posted 29 May 2021 - 12:09 PM

Quite the collection of monthly charts here representing massive market cap, as you will see below.

 

Bulls "could" be on the verge of a massive fumble....or.... they might finally start making forward progress again after a multi-month stall...

 

It likely ALL boils down to AAPL and AMZN, perhaps as soon as next week.

 

With nearly every pundit I have read/seen the last few weeks looking for a "final hurrah", perhaps it does not come.

 

First the monthly set of charts.

 

AAPL - Total stall out with momo rolling over...a real possibility long term top is IN, and trip down the other side of the big mountain is just about to begin.

 

aapl.png

 

AMZN - Ditto to AAPL

 

AMZN.png

 

FB - The dreaded Hangin' Man at the end of a huge run up....if June ends up down, could be big trouble ahead.

 

fb.png

 

GOOGL - Ditto to FB

 

googl.png

 

MSFT - Ditto again

 

msft.png

 

And NDX itself - Ditto on the Hangin' Man

 

ndx.png

 

And now a bit closer look at AAPL and AMZN.....both sitting on the entrance to the "crash window", after absolutely terrible relative action on this last ramp to the key 13,700 zone on NDX.

 

AAPL daily..

 

aaplday.png

 

AMZN daily...

 

amznday.png

 

And a bit more granular look - AAPL & AMZN hourly.....likely MASSIVE decision just about to be made....SOON

In any event, until AAPL and AMZN can recover from their relative weakness, not fully buying into launch scenario from here.

And should they continue to stumble, and NDX takes out 13K, could potentially get real ugly in June....

But if they manage a stick save...pretty much immediately, then bulls still got a shot.

 

AAPL 60 min

 

aaplhr.png

 

AMZN 60 min

 

amznhour.png

 

 

And last, but definitely not least, massive momo divergence on AAPL weekly chart at what could very well turn out to be a multi-decade high there....

IF bulls do manage a stick save next week on AAPL, then a very likely scenario could be a 3rd Divergent Drive up to complete the most bearish of top patterns.....

Either way, the weekly momo picture suggests that AAPL is very close to a major long term peak, whether already in place now, or in a few months.

 

aaplweek.png

 

 

 

 

 



#2 Smithy

Smithy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,494 posts

Posted 29 May 2021 - 08:41 PM

Thanks, K Wave, great stuff. Interesting week ahead.



#3 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 25,267 posts

Posted 29 May 2021 - 08:52 PM

With fuel costs at a 7 year high and rising, Amazon's Prime delivery has to be seeing a big increase of costs for their "free delivery".

 

Overworked drivers may be drawn away by other desperate employers offering "incentives" because they can't compete with the disabling "free money" government unemployment handouts.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 May 2021 - 08:53 PM.


#4 tradesurfer

tradesurfer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,772 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 12:16 AM

Outstanding work Kwave thank you for sharing.

 

A few things to add.

 

First, Armstrong has  June as s directional change month which would confirm your charts.  (according to him June directional change and then down for "2 to 3 months")

 

 

Second the 72 week cycle discovered by Tom Hougaard points to June 28th according to him on the DJIA as a final top.

 

The problem is I have calculated this date myself on the DJIA as June 23th, 2021   ( there is also a 65 week cycle that converges on June 21st 2021)).

 

So whether the date is June 23rd, or June 28th, it should be clear that day is rapidly approaching.

 

If we use the June 23rd date, that means we are only talking about 17 trading days away.

 

But the other even more crucual point is whether this date will be a low or a high on the cycle.

 

 

If it is a low, then we have to consider that a 17 day meltdown will start occurring as soon as next week.   

 

After a monthly hanging man completes its print, sometimes the sell price action invokes as soon as the next monthly print.



#5 tradesurfer

tradesurfer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,772 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 05:39 AM

After reviewing the weekly DJI chart I am sort of coming into the idea that June 23rd to 28th will be a 72 week cycle low instead of a high.

 

That basically means we should be in for a 4 week meltdown starting this week.  FOMC is only 11 trading days away.  I guess the market could start to risk off before that on the idea Fed changes tune and then on the Fed day meltdown even more on the realized news.



#6 Rich C

Rich C

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 279 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 07:51 AM

K Wave, that is a GREAT set of charts, THANKS!!!


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.  During the Corona virus bear market I use more sector funds to avoid the bad spots in the SPY such as energy, hotels, and the airlines.


#7 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,633 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 10:04 AM

Yes very interesting charts!! 



#8 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,804 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 11:01 AM

thanks kwave,   my work is showing june as a pivotal month. 

buckle up , the waters are about to get rough

dharma



#9 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,136 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 11:05 AM

With regard to the late June prognostications...

 

The MAIN EVENT of June for the stock market is the infamous RUSSELL REBALANCE 

 

June 25th.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#10 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,901 posts

Posted 30 May 2021 - 05:31 PM

thanks kwave,   my work is showing june as a pivotal month. 

buckle up , the waters are about to get rough

dharma

 

SPX Futures up nicely right now on Sunday evening. 

Looks like the week could be parabolic watch the sky type.


Edited by pdx5, 30 May 2021 - 05:33 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule