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Massive Decline Ahead Update #1


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#21 gm_general

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Posted 25 August 2021 - 01:43 PM

Perhaps we should rename it "Holders Talk"? Or invest in some monkeys?

 

https://www.forbes.c...sh=16a844a2630a



#22 12SPX

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Posted 25 August 2021 - 01:58 PM

Haha, thats the key point its called "traders talk", not holders talk and why I say no matter what your opinion is it should be respected,,,,well at least until you've seen a prediction be wrong consistently lol and then you can at least make fun of them lol!! 



#23 pdx5

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Posted 25 August 2021 - 02:15 PM

Even if we dropped 25% by October, cheif isn't wrong that in say, 5 years we'll be higher than we are today.  Just need to look at a long term chart, even a 5 year old could figure out the overall trend. 

Cheif is always right in the long term if you ignore inflation. Because FED will always print excessively in the long term. But purchasing power of $1000 worth of SPX in 1965 is exactly same as purchasing power of buy and hold of that same SPX portfolio today. In reality it is much worse. Because 95%+ of investors do not buy and hold for 50 years. So they had to pay income taxes all along.

 

Even if you bought in 1965 and held on until today, and thus paid no income tax, you have a huge tax liability built up when you sell. The purpose of investing is to sell and enjoy spending the profits. You have gained nothing in purchasing power, but you have built up a huge capital gains tax liability. That is what is wrong with capital gains taxes. It is a tax on inflation! Sadly even without the income tax, your purchasing power of buy and holder since 1965 is no bigger than in 1965.

 

Which then concludes me to pontificate, the ONLY real winners are those who trade successfully, taking advantage of market fluctuations.


Edited by pdx5, 25 August 2021 - 02:17 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#24 dowdeva

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Posted 25 August 2021 - 02:31 PM

I believe there will be at least a 10% correction in September, possibly extending into October.

#25 redfoliage2

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Posted 25 August 2021 - 03:16 PM

Obviously traders are betting on a dovish YouTube show by Powell at JH Conference on Friday ....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 25 August 2021 - 03:19 PM.


#26 pdx5

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Posted 26 August 2021 - 11:04 AM

Looks today more like traders are a bit nervous about conference tomorrow.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#27 K Wave

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Posted 26 August 2021 - 12:58 PM

Its all about the Mega Caps now...until they finish their blowoff (which may not be that far off, as this looks like likely final legs on MSFT and GOOGL), market will not have any serious damage.

 

So now we see if we get aborted stubby tops on MSFT and GOOGL, or extended multi-week full on vertical ramp job.

 

Once they do roll over, the reversion to the mean could be brutal over the coming months....with Mega Caps doing the big damage, just as they have held things aloft as breadth has completely disintegrated...


Edited by K Wave, 26 August 2021 - 12:59 PM.


#28 LMF

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Posted 26 August 2021 - 01:20 PM

Market breadth has been like Ive been noting, small caps are garbage because of COVId. Hence so is the NYSE breadth. All that matters from now on is the SPX breadth which is doing fine day after day.

Edited by LMF, 26 August 2021 - 01:21 PM.