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3940 on $spx should be the next stop


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#1 kinga200

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 11:34 AM

A lot of resistance has been accumulating from the drop early Sept.

3940 is the next real support level. IMHO

#2 steadyquest

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 12:00 PM

Possible bounce at the 200?

 

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#3 LMF

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 12:20 PM

This market is totally healthy above the 200 day MA. Thats the line. Small caps are trying to avoid a much bigger pullback.

#4 kinga200

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 11:31 PM

My apologies should had been more clear. I didnt mean straight down, yes there will be bounces even at 200 ma

Just my target will get there n should hold. My work is taken from the low in March 2020. The 200 ma will hold, maybe a trading day or two. IMHO

BUT support is at 3940. IF that breaks the we should see the March 2020 lows. Again imho.

#5 da_cheif

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 08:40 AM

u have a lotta company in that idea......we have a self proclaimed ewave expurt on SI...calling for 2200........after 30k pts up    as i promised nose bleeds and fear of heights will and are endemic......675 ono .....watch the sky

 

A lot of resistance has been accumulating from the drop early Sept.

3940 is the next real support level. IMHO

 



#6 slupert

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 10:12 AM

Bounce is on the way, possible DCB. Market isn't just stand up, dust itelf off and away we go, we will remain choppy through earnigs season Hit the lowerr BB a few days this week, look at the volume off Friday's BB kiss,   https://schrts.co/ZvXzXusv



#7 K Wave

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 10:15 AM

Friday was an interesting day.

 

Just enough positive breadth to stall the summation from cliff diving, but action in SOX and Mega Caps did not confirm the big up thrust, and weekly charts on both still look highly suspect...especially SOX, as weekly has Huge breakaway week downside.

 

Friday's low looks like a huge pivot spot now....

 

If we gap down on Sunday night, and take out those lows, could get real ugly for a bit.

 

But if we get a big gap up, and SOX and Mega Caps join in on Monday, then could still be some life left in the bull...

 

Also watching RUT here...if it does not Gap down and go on Monday, and instead takes out 2260 area upside, then it may start to emerge from what could be a long basing pattern....

 

SOX weekly

 

sox.png

 

RUT 1 Hour - looks like it has reached perfect equilibrium at 2240...now decision time....

 

rut1.png

 

RUT 2 hour..still bullish above 2200

 

rut2.png


Edited by K Wave, 02 October 2021 - 10:16 AM.


#8 LMF

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 01:16 PM

I use the SP600 SML for my small cap analysis as the data goes back into the late 90s. It recently hit a very long trend line on the log chart going back to the 1998 highs before LTCM. And its easy to see the selling this year from the recent highs. Very difficult to keep going higher as I think that log trend line will never be crossed, the sell point now is too popular. In any case, right now I would be expecting a larger SML pullback down to the 2018 highs that occurred before the 2020 COVId low. That would form something like a 38.2 retrace of the runup from the 2020 lows. This is the most likely scenario. And then see how SPX breadth looks as a result. The broader NYSE breadth numbers will never be useful again to me after the sheer number of small companies that were vaporized during the economic shutdown. The infamous death cross has already hit on the TNA chart.

Edited by LMF, 02 October 2021 - 01:18 PM.


#9 steadyquest

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 08:15 PM

Here is one aesthetically viable count fitting the 3940 scenario.  Of course the decline could end on any step - might have ended on Friday.  And as long as the markets are allowed to be manipulated by the ultimate insider profiteers - congress, banksters, media conglomerates and etc. - analytical forecasting may remain an exercise in futility.

 

Going-Down.png



#10 K Wave

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Posted 04 October 2021 - 09:57 AM

Told you guys those Mega Cap and SOX charts looked ugly....

 

This is far from done is my guess.....although could see some big fast bounces yet.... if today is not the actual start of the crash wave....

4 hour charts on many things now in extremely precarious positions.....4 hour is a pretty long time frame....