Black Swans are circling like vultures!
Black Swan: "an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences
It's difficult to find a positive opinion of the market, the economy, and the future in general. In other words, this is the perfect time for the market to begin a leap to all-time highs. The numbers are lousy, but better than they were weeks ago.
From Liverpool to LA, shortages of energy, labour and transport are threatening recovery from Covid
It was all going so well. Successful vaccination programmes were driving the post-pandemic recovery of the global economy, stock markets were back at record highs, and prices were rising just enough to make deflation fears a thing of the past.
But a supply crunch that initially put a question mark over the availability of luxury cars or whether there would be enough PlayStations under our Christmas trees is instead morphing into a full-blown crisis featuring a shortage of energy, labour and transport from Liverpool to Los Angeles, and from Qingdao to Queensland.
“Governments are having to rethink quickly because the three elements – supply side, transport, labour – are coming together to blow a stagflationary wind through the global economy.”
According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "Black Swan events" have three characteristics:
1. It is a surprise.
2. It has a major impact.
3. People contend that they expected the event to take place (in hindsight).
Examples of "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the collapse of Russia or the invention of the Internet.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 October 2021 - 02:33 PM.