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"Sell, baby, sell" -- Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:19 PM

Never thought  it is legal for company owner/exec to ask people if to sell the stock and then suggest/recommend to SELL! 

Not that I will lose if NQ goes down! On the contrary, I am heavily short and welcome even a 1 to 2% QQQ drop.
 

 

 

Replying to
 
 
Twitter users say 'yes' to Musk's proposal to sell 10% of his Tesla stock
 

https://www.reuters....say-2021-11-07/



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:20 PM

Replying to
Sell Baby Sell
Replying to
Sell Baby Sell


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:24 PM

NO, markets do not crash in modern times since there are measures in place to prevent it but the market can drop a few % points as the FED et al engineer a soft landing. Exceptions are rare e.g. major geopolitical event. Do not depend on a CRASH (defined by me as market dropping more than 5%) to make profits. 

 

 

Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash? 11-05-21
By Lance Roberts | November 6, 2021
Market Back To Extreme Overbought

As noted last week, the more significant concern remains the underlying technical condition of the market. While the rally has been impressive, rising to all-time highs, the market is now back to more extreme overbought levels.

Furthermore, our “money flow buy signal” is near a peak and slightly triggered a “sell signal.” However, with the MACD still positive, the signal suggests a consolidation rather than correction. However, a confirming MACD often aligns with short-term corrections at a minimum. Therefore we will watch that signal closely. Also, this entire rally from the recent lows has been on very weak volume, which suggests a lack of commitment.

SP500-Chart1-110521-1024x752.png

Currently, the bulls control the market as we are in the middle of a “buying stampede.” Historically, buying stampedes last on average between 7 and 12 days. Logically, buying stampedes always get followed by selling stampedes of similar lengths. However, there are times these stampedes can last much longer than expected.

We are currently in one of those longer-term periods. As shown below, the S&P 500 has only been down in 2 of the last 18 days. How unusual is that? In the previous 20-years of the S&P 500, the number of times the market accomplished such a feat was precisely ZERO.

1-10.png

Of course, that stampede gets driven by exuberance.

Irrational Exuberance

In our daily market commentary (click the banner below to subscribe for FREE morning delivery), we quoted a piece of analysis from Chartr.com. To wit:

Every week it feels like we get a new headline about financial markets doing something unusual. Just this week we’ve had:

  • A “squid game” crypto token falling 99.99% in a few minutes.
  • Tesla adding hundreds of billions of dollars in value over a deal with Hertz that hasn’t even been signed.
  • US stock markets hitting fresh all-time-highs.

“All of which begs the question: are we in a bubble?”

https://realinvestme...-crash-11-05-21



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:31 PM

My worst week since August but could have been worse if market did not bounce in late trading Friday & VXX was up.

 

96 QQQ PUTS

2 NQ HEDGE LONG

30 VXX CALLS

FLAT CRUDE

 

Was stopped out of 18 QQQ PUTS last week and added more as market rallied but this turned out to be a losing proposition as markets jumped after the FED meeting.

 

BIG PROFITS in NQ daytrading, NQ hedge long, CRUDE SHORT, but also big losses in QQQ PUTS, VXX CALLS

 

Will continue holding a big short position but time is running out and will decide whether to cut losses and reverse or hold, or trim SHORTS on shallow pullbacks, gradually phasing out. But, for now, holding SHORTS.

 

Crude was very confusing after a great run and then US sent out signals about measures to increase supply etc ... did not trade much CRUDE on Thursday & Friday.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:34 PM

Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock. Do you support this?
  •  
    Yes
    57.9%
  •  
    No
    42.1%
3,519,252 votes·Final results


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:38 PM

POLL has been right recently; the narrow edge to BULLS may be close to reality.

 

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    51.8%
  •  
    DOWN
    48.2%
1,902 votes·Final results
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    51.8%
  •  
    DOWN
    48.2%
1,902 votes·Final results


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:41 PM

 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Have a great weekend! #ES_F hit multi-year resistance at 4705-4710: Perfect trendline from 2020 that caused the Sept selloff. Cool-off zone here Plan next week: Dip to 4655, 4635 lowest. It Holds, and melt-up leg #2 to 4770+ starts. 4630 fails & deeper sell to 4500 starts. $SPX
 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Have a great weekend! #ES_F hit multi-year resistance at 4705-4710: Perfect trendline from 2020 that caused the Sept selloff. Cool-off zone here Plan next week: Dip to 4655, 4635 lowest. It Holds, and melt-up leg #2 to 4770+ starts. 4630 fails & deeper sell to 4500 starts. $SPX


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:45 PM

The market’s now a potent blend of the silly and the substantive. Adrenaline-rich froth in Nasdaq giants. Orderly, encouraging leadership by cyclicals at the core. Tape is stretched, sure, but remember it's "upside risk" season.
 
What’s a true crazy blowoff looks like, see the side-by-side of Nasdaq in 2021 vs 1999. Fun parallel: Nasdaq Composite in the two years through last Friday, Nov. 5: +89%. Nasdaq the two years ending Nov. 5, 1999: +89%. THEN it got crazy. See context below.) Not a prediction.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:47 PM

Careful. +500 has not been reached yet. See https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/lofty_rasi_says_uptrend_is_not_done_yet/ for why this is important. Well above +500 is needed to certify the bulls are still in charge, as discussed in our most recent McClellan Market Report.
Quote Tweet
 
 
HLET9Cq6_mini.jpg
 
Urban Carmel
 
@ukarlewitz
· Nov 5
Here’s a breadth study that’s actionable. After being negative, $NYSI is just 36 pts away from +500. Very high odds of continued upside in $SPX (blue lines). This isn’t how bull markets end


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:48 PM

Tom:

The SP500 keeps on making higher highs, as the effects of QE4 are still being felt in the banking system, and in the stock market.  But there is a troubling divergence among some of the most liquidity sensitive investment vehicles, the high yield corporate bonds. Their A-D Line was leading the way higher ever since the December 2018 bottom, but not any more.

https://www.mcoscill..._bond_a-d_line/


Edited by dTraderB, 07 November 2021 - 07:49 PM.