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"Sell, baby, sell" -- Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash?


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:50 PM

Still up but heavy going ...

 

McClellanOsc_1170.gif

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:52 PM

Got to focus on this short NQ trade as the markets drop.

 

extreme greed

look at the components

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 07:57 PM

So, "smart money" hedgers have made some big moves, very quickly.
They're now net short about $79 billion worth of major equity index futures, a record.
And they're long more than 600,000 contracts in 10-year Treasuries, the most in 3 years.

 



#14 redfoliage2

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Posted 08 November 2021 - 12:03 PM

Seasonality does not favor a crash here.  There are still further upside to SPX 4800 before the end of the year ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 08 November 2021 - 12:08 PM.


#15 redfoliage2

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Posted 08 November 2021 - 02:09 PM

However, in short term we may see a pullback soon ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 08 November 2021 - 02:09 PM.


#16 12SPX

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 09:01 AM

lol gonna be interesting!! 



#17 12SPX

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 10:14 AM

Is this actually a red day omg lol!!!  Call options still have extreme premium bullishness in them and until that goes we could see more downside, gonna be interesting!! 



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 01:50 PM

Closing a few qqq puts
Holding all vxx calls & nq hedges

#19 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 08:49 PM

2 Profitable days this week, more profits today. 

CHINA playing a risky game in trying to arrange a soft landing for Evergrande et al but it could blow up, calling it a day but overnight action seems to be picking up

 

Closed a few QQQ PUTS earlier in the day and then some after 1pm but basically still holding big short position overall. 

Profits in NQ DAYTRADES & QQQ PUTS, small profit in VXX CALLS & CRUDE SHORT,  losses in NQ HEDGE LONG

 

 

82 QQQ PUTS

2 NQ HEDGE LONG

30 VXX CALLS

7 CRUDE SHORT

 

My worst week since August but could have been worse if market did not bounce in late trading Friday & VXX was up.

 

96 QQQ PUTS

2 NQ HEDGE LONG

30 VXX CALLS

FLAT CRUDE

 

Was stopped out of 18 QQQ PUTS last week and added more as market rallied but this turned out to be a losing proposition as markets jumped after the FED meeting.

 

BIG PROFITS in NQ daytrading, NQ hedge long, CRUDE SHORT, but also big losses in QQQ PUTS, VXX CALLS

 

Will continue holding a big short position but time is running out and will decide whether to cut losses and reverse or hold, or trim SHORTS on shallow pullbacks, gradually phasing out. But, for now, holding SHORTS.

 

Crude was very confusing after a great run and then US sent out signals about measures to increase supply etc ... did not trade much CRUDE on Thursday & Friday.



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 08:52 PM

 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Todays red blip right coming right on seasonal cue for $SPX and as posted the next 10 or so days are seasonally "weaker" - though not outright bearish (more a choppy/corrective phase). I trade price only, but worth noting. *On avg* ends Nov 20-23 when the "Santa" rally starts
Quote Tweet
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Nov 5
Seasonality continues to do an eerily precise job forecasting $SPX- this week was one of the most bullish of the year seasonally as posted & played out. As long as keeps working, worth paying attention. Next Seasonal weak phase coming ~Nov 10 - 23, which sets up a December meltup twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s… 

Edited by dTraderB, 09 November 2021 - 08:52 PM.