Jump to content



Photo

ST Bottom, Bounce, DOWN again


  • Please log in to reply
212 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:33 PM

Bounce tomorrow or Tuesday favored.

Quite possible for a ST bottom between ES 4640 and 4600, and then a bounce to test the 4720-30 zone, but I 

still think the markets will again resume the decline and drop by another 5 to 10% before the end of February. 

 

Unpredictable environment such as this one can produce extremely volatile markets but we still haven't seen a sharp rise in VIX or VXX. 

 

Have a great weekend! The 50DMA saved #ES_F this week, but bulls not out of the woods. Ugly weekly engulfing candle

Plan next Week: Relief bounce shot to 4705, 4745.
 
Unless bulls clear 4745, next leg down to 4585-75 buy zone incoming.
 
Warning: 4650 goes 1st we head there direct

 



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:36 PM

Second of January usually bearish?

 

 

And second half of jan is usually/statistically bearish correct?
Replying to
Correct

Replying to
And second half of jan is usually/statistically bearish correct?


#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:39 PM

Still above ZERO

 

McClellanOsc_1213.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:41 PM

 HORRIBLE?

 

 

Market timer sees 'horrible' market ahead for 2024

Tom McClellan, editor of the The McClellan Market Report, says that it's time for investors to 'change out of your tennis shoes and put on your track shoes' to deal with a market that is going to chop sideways this year, and turn 'horrible' next year. McClellan has told his subscribers to be out of the market now, as he expects a downturn over the first few months of 2022. The NAVigator segment features Robert Grunewald, chief executive officer at Flat Rock Global discussing how the interval-fund structure provides stability in a potentially volatile asset class like 'middle-market credits,' allowing investors to trade off some liquidity in pursuit of higher fixed-income returns. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience questions about saving versus paying down debt, and about the value of a found collection of old coins, and Helaine Olen of the Washington Post talks about the continued blurring of the lines between journalism and 'sponsored content,' and how hard it is to distinguish between the two at Fox Business and elsewhere.

https://moneylifesho...dest_id=2391335



#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:43 PM

STUBBORN FED 

 

After a long thread this week about Fed Funds and mechanical governors https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1479308972767154177, here is another way to see how far behind the FOMC is. The commercial traders of eurodollar futures give a 10-mo. leading indication for ST rates. But sometimes the Fed gets stubborn.
 
 
 
 
 
hN65_xGU_mini.jpg
 
Tom McClellan
 
@McClellanOsc
· Jan 7
Some people may not well understand the point about the 2-year T-Note yield and its relationship to the Fed Funds target rate. It might help to think of the Fed’s interest rates as a throttle on the economy. Here’s a thread. @DLineCap @judyshel [1/19]
Show this thread
 
 
 
 
 
hN65_xGU_mini.jpg
 
Tom McClellan
 
@McClellanOsc
· Jan 7
Some people may not well understand the point about the 2-year T-Note yield and its relationship to the Fed Funds target rate. It might help to think of the Fed’s interest rates as a throttle on the economy. Here’s a thread. @DLineCap @judyshel [1/19]
Show this thread


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:47 PM

I am watching the CRUDE market closely, trading mainly small SHORT positions so far, ST trading, but will 

accumulate larger SHORT positions above 80 WTI if traded. 

 

Many are producers, using futures market for its intended purpose, to lock in pricing on future production. The message now is that they don't think the current price is one worth locking. They'd rather wait for better pricing that they think is coming.
Quote Tweet
 
 
 
 
 
 
2166c2503c6ec9fabed71a6d6ed6efc1_mini.jp
 
Max Pica
 
@maxpica
· Jan 8
Replying to @McClellanOsc
I think in oil most commercials are hedgers, they sell the future to fix the spot they have to deliver, that's how it works with industrial commodities
After a long thread this week about Fed Funds and mechanical governors https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1479308972767154177, here is another way to see how far behind the FOMC is. The commercial traders of eurodollar futures give a 10-mo. leading indication for ST rates. But sometimes the Fed gets stubborn.


#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:49 PM

More bearish but not by a wide margin, 55-45

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    44.6%
  •  
    DOWN
    55.4%
2,878 votes·Final results


#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 09 January 2022 - 05:59 PM

XLF at ATH !

 

Quite a move in the Bank Index relative to the S&P this week. Similar move in 2019 and 2021 but not in 2020
 


#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 10 January 2022 - 07:24 AM

Buying QQQ in LT Portfolio below 377

Gradual build

my FF: Lower low today before any bounce, possibly below 4620

 

Opening update: #ES_F testing that critical 4650-55 support yet again (tested exactly) and trying to bounce. This is the shot at relief bounce to targets posted above - fails after this will be an ugly start to the week with 4585ish next down

 



#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,898 posts

Posted 10 January 2022 - 07:38 AM

Will add another ES HEDGE LONG for a bullish bias if SPY drops below 460

 

Only NQ daytrading so far, last night & today, and opening QQQ LONG position in LT

 

-----------

 

24 SP PUTS

1 ES HEDGE LONG

 

FLAT everything else

 

Great week to start 2022. 

 

Back on Sunday.