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Bitcoin, Do the Tails Wag the Dog?


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 11 January 2022 - 04:20 PM

The red circles on the daily Bitcoin plot below show close together clusters of candle stick tails or wicks at lows.  The current cluster would appear to be signalling some sort of move higher.  Any coin experts out there with more insight why (or if) this bear might crawl back in to his (her, PC) cave for at least a brief snooze?

 

bAyB7fM.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 slupert

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Posted 12 January 2022 - 06:13 AM

Cross reference that chart with one of other ris assets, Bitcoin trades like a risk asset, that's all. (JMHO)



#3 Douglas

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Posted 12 January 2022 - 11:04 AM

Well, when I checked Bitcoin a few minutes ago, it was up a couple of percent so far, that's pretty good.  The 7% inflation print this morning also didn't hurt.  Amazingly the 2 year note yield is actually flat for the day.  Its real yield is something like a minus 6.1% even using the BLS phoney baloney inflation numbers.  The real victim of this train wreck is the US dollar which  appears to be breaking down from some sort of high consolidation area.  Now let's see.  If you import everything you use the way the US does and your currency starts losing value the way the dollar appears to be doing which will make all those imported things more expensive, how exactly is that supposed to help with the inflation?  The FED Heads must be operating using alternative economics.  I just wish that I could shop in a store with alternative lower prices.  

hcmUjS5.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 12 January 2022 - 11:06 AM.


#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 January 2022 - 12:38 AM

Crypto scams are the top investor threat 'by far'

"By far, NASAA's securities regulators revealed that investments related to cryptocurrencies and digital assets are our top investor threat," said Enforcement Section committee co-chair Joseph P. Borg, Alabama Securities Commission Director. "Stories of 'crypto millionaires' attracted some investors to try their hand at investing in cryptocurrencies or crypto-related investments this year, and with them, many stories of those who bet big and lost big began appearing, and they will continue to appear in 2022."



#5 Douglas

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Posted 13 January 2022 - 03:02 AM

Rodgerdodger, I don't get the attraction of Bitcoin as a long term store of wealth either versus gold or silver.  I do understand the value of block chain to make secure transactions, so that is where I think the future lies for this technology maybe as a replacement for credit cards, an alternative for paper money since the FED has made it essentially worthless over the long term anyway and a means of securely and easily moving money around the globe replacing much what is done by the din of thieving money changing bankers.  The current cryptocurrency mania is simply a typical manifestation of greed that has appeared during all the big historical bubbles (think tulips), so I guess it just has to work its way through the system a bit like when a kid swallows a marble with both ending up in the same fetid result.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 January 2022 - 03:08 AM.


#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 January 2022 - 09:49 PM

Credit card accounts can be hacked... but your loss as a consumer is limited to $50 and seldom is that charged.

 

If your coin wallet is compromised or you can't find your secret password, too bad.



#7 Douglas

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Posted 14 January 2022 - 05:59 AM

There's nothing there to stop a provider from using blockchain technology and developing some means of providing the same $50 risk guarantee on use to consumers.  Credit cards charge anywhere from 2 to 4 percent to merchants for use.  That's enormous.  It's a bit like the brokerage fees in the olden days versus discount broker fees today.  Retailers have been doing credit card work-arounds like offering discounts for cash to try to provide the best price to consumers like at Spec's Liquor in Houston where I used to obtain my favorite pain killers.  In theory that fee could drop by an order of magnitude if a frictionless system like blockchain can be adapted which doesn't  require the processing like credit card transactions and also provides the merchant with a guaranteed payment like bitcoin.  You are right, consumer protection is probably the next big step in the blockchain development since we've all heard horror stories of bitcoin hacks and lost private key pass words.  Probably this current coin frenzy is just the first step in the ladder to block chain technology's development which could lead to wider adoption.

 

Regards,

Douglas