246 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

My FF is rally with possibility of ES 4600 but then an even bigger decline and new 2022 lows. 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

 

Most are expecting 1) Melt up to ATHs or 2) Bear market, but markets confuse & theres 3rd option that traps both: $SPX whipsaws in big range (like after Jan 2018 11% crash for months, Oct-Dec 2018, or Aug '15-July'16) Regardless, lvl to lvl, 1 move at a time best way to play it

 

6:19 PM · Jan 30, 2022·

 

https://theirrelevan...5/what-selloff/

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Jan 29

 

Have a great weekend! Despite bullish Fri, #ES_F went nowhere all week failing 5x to clear 200dma Plan: Bears get 1 more shot at direct new lows between here & 4457 max. Need <4390 which flushes to a new low for a Feb rally. 4457 clears, we squeeze ~100 points to 4540 strong res

 

"Despite the close today, its important to zoom out. ES was bouncing in the same range all week: Generally between 4280, 4320-30, and 4400-4420 with price just ping ponging between these levels. Despite the bullish close, ES did not only not clear its 200dma at 4427, but it also didn’t manage to close a single day above its prior days high all week. In other words: While sentiment online felt like ES was breaking to ATHs, nothing happened all week. Early next week will be fairly key, but I have a feeling bears aren’t quite done yet, even if price squeezes up another level next week"

[dTraderB]

Relatively BIG move up for McOsc

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Also, check these charts:

 

https://www.marketin...summation-index

[dTraderB]

To repeat:

Mark Ungewitter

 

@mark_ungewitter

·

Jan 28

 

"Bear markets do not end until: 1) sellers have panicked; and 2) buyers are panicked to buy again." –The late, great Paul Desmond

@LowryResearch

 

[dTraderB]

BUSY WEEK ahead:  Will BOE raise rates? 

 

 

 

 

 

Super Thursday features BOE and ECB meetings ahead of Friday's US jobs report

 

Thursday & Friday:

 

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 3 
00:30   AUD   Building Permits (MoM)(Dec)     
00:30   AUD   Exports (MoM)(Dec)     
00:30   AUD   Imports (MoM)(Dec)     
00:30   AUD   National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)(Q4)     
00:30   AUD   Trade Balance (MoM)(Dec)     
08:15   SPA    Markit Services PMI(Jan)     
08:45   ITA      Markit Services PMI(Jan)     
08:55   GER   Markit PMI Composite(Jan)     
09:00   EUR   Markit PMI Composite(Jan)     
12:00   GBP   Bank of England Minutes     
12:00   GBP   Bank of England Monetary Policy Report     
12:00   GBP   BoE Asset Purchase Facility     
12:00   GBP   BoE Interest Rate Decision     
12:00   GBP   BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut     
12:00   GBP   BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike     
12:00   GBP   BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged     
12:00   GBP   Monetary Policy Summary     
12:30   GBP   BoE's Governor Bailey speech     
12:45   EUR   ECB Deposit Rate Decision     
12:45   EUR   ECB Interest Rate Decision     
12:45   EUR   ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement     
13:30   USD   Initial Jobless Claims(Jan 28)     
13:30   USD   Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jan 28)     
13:30   USD   Nonfarm Productivity(Q4) PREL      
13:30   USD   Unit Labor Costs(Q4) PREL      
13:30   EUR   ECB Press Conference     
14:45   USD   Markit PMI Composite(Jan)     
14:45   USD   Markit Services PMI(Jan)     
15:00   USD   Factory Orders (MoM)(Dec)     
15:00   USD   ISM Services Employment Index(Jan)     
15:00   USD   ISM Services New Orders Index(Jan)     
15:00   USD   ISM Services PMI(Jan)     
15:00   USD   ISM Services Prices Paid(Jan)     
21:45   NZD   Building Permits s.a. (MoM)(Dec)    

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 4  
00:30   AUD   RBA Monetary Policy Statement     
07:00   GER   Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Dec)     
10:00   EUR   Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec)     
10:00   EUR   Retail Sales (YoY)(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Jan)     
13:30   USD   Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Jan)     
13:30   USD   Labor Force Participation Rate(Jan)     
13:30   USD   Nonfarm Payrolls(Jan)     
13:30   USD   U6 Underemployment Rate(Jan)     
13:30   USD   Unemployment Rate(Jan)     

[dTraderB]

Dougie Kass

 

@DougKass

·

10h

 

@dougkass

The real neg fed funds rate (-7%) is more than the -5% in 1970s. A year ago Powell lost his credibility on price stability. Now question is how aggressive he gets in trying to recapture it but at the high risk of damaging the economy/deflating asset prices

@jimcramer

Quote Tweet

Jim Cramer

 

@jimcramer

· Jan 29

Fascinating that not a strategist i read has said that Jay can pull this off. I think betting against Jay has been a fool's errand. Sure, i don't want to fight the fed or the tape but i don't want to fight the Chief!

Edited by dTraderB, 30 January 2022 - 07:10 PM.

[dTraderB]

YES, I WILL BUY ARKK below 60

[dTraderB]

VERY BULLISH 

 

 

 

Helene Meisler

 

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  62.4%
•  

  DOWN

  37.6%

4,205 votes·Final results

8:03 AM · Jan 29, 2022· 

•  

   

Edited by dTraderB, 30 January 2022 - 07:17 PM.

[K Wave]

That pivot down there at 1938 on rusty this AM likely a big one....bulls still back in control above.

 

 But if they fail to negotiate that turn, could still be big problems...

 

AAPL ran right into 15 & 30 min combo resistance at the close on Friday, so watching today's action for possible larger clues....