39 replies to this topic

[hhh]

Agreed, except that inflation will always give it an upward bias over the long term in non-adjusted dollars, not to mention the pruning of the losers in the DOW and its price-weighted nature skewing its numbers.

[Rogerdodger]

That money didn't vanish.

 

 

Several of my friends' wives saw their retirement money disappear.

 

I am old enough to remember the stock market tip about selling when the shoeshine boy is giving stock tips.

A quote frequently attributed to Joseph Kennedy goes: “If shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it's time to get out of the market.”

 

"In The Big Short, the ultimate tell that housing was going to crash was the scene where a stripper was talking about her real estate speculation."

[hhh]

What does "disappear" mean in this context? Did it get burned? Was it stolen? Was it used to purchase assets that dropped in value and then were sold at a loss?

[redfoliage2]

End of the year SPX target - 4900 according to GS adjusted with the Fed rate hike outlook:

 

https://www.bloomber...on-rate-outlook

 

Money is for spending -  make or lose, here or there.  The point is buy low and sell high ....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 February 2022 - 02:30 PM.

[pdx5]

 

With all that cash flooding in for over a year, today's NYSE price low touched last February's high.

Meanwhile gasoline has tripled.

 

A lot of that free money went into Bitcoin at near the high of $70,000.

Half of that money has now vanished!

That money didn't vanish, it went from the bitcoin buyers' accounts into the accounts of those that sold up there.

 

That argument is only partially true. Because for one trading volume on any day is much smaller than the total capitalization.

[hhh]

Regardless, no money vanished. Where does the money go when daily trading volume exceeds capitalization? Hint: the same place it goes when in your scenario: from one cash account to another.

[redfoliage2]

 

ST target SPX 4460

I'll take that bet for more beer, there's no way the markets gonna be up +7% by the close!! 

 

ST not for one day, it takes a few days.  But how much you have made just today since my bottom call assuming you were long with ES?

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 February 2022 - 03:06 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

The jump before the plunge....    I've studied other plunges over the years and so far their is still lots of money betting on the bear, and a lot of money on the sidelines...   Usually before a plunge there is a relief rally lasting 1 1/2 days to 4 days...      When these rally happen take a look on how much of excess money gets pulled into the market, market valuation, Put/Call ratios and other factors...   If investors get bullish lots of money goes from the sideline into stocks then we are ripe for a plunge..     I don't yet see it, but we are likely starting this support rally to get out of a Short Term oversold position, so we need to see how the internals play out....

[hhh]

...and a lot of money on the sidelines...If investors get bullish lots of money goes from the sideline into stocks then we are ripe for a plunge..  

Where are these sidelines?

 

Is the money on the sidelines when it's in the:

a ) buyer's account;

b ) seller's account;

c ) both; or

d ) neither?

 

Edit: almost forgot: please show your work.

Edited by hhh, 24 February 2022 - 03:54 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Can't lose money in crypto!

I will let the news organizations know that you can't lose money in crypto.

30 years old - Lost 90% of my net worth ($400k) in Crypto. I got into highly risky 10x leveraged day-trading (for the last 2 months, I was spending 15 hours a day, day-trading) with Crypto and got liquidated 11x over 3 years, I had my money bounce up and down like a rollercoaster between 0k-400k over 3 years. Worse than that, I considered suicide, lost weight, lost my passion for my hobbies, eating, sleeping etc. The depression/stress I had, combined with all the money I had, really made me reach rock bottom in my life.

 

Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies

 

Sep 11, 2018 — An estimated $400 billion has been wiped off the value of major cryptocurrencies since January. Sean Russell's life savings were among them.

In the end I lost it all, held zero crypto, had very little money left

 

May 28, 2021 — Jake got addicted to trading cryptocurrency and lost more than £1m of money that was not his.

Sep 11, 2021 — Opinion: If you've lost money on bitcoin or other cryptos, it might be because you can't trust your memory, according to new research.

 

Crypto Billionaires Have Lost $15.5 Billion In Nine Days

 

Bitcoin investor Stefan Thomas can’t figure out his password to a digital wallet holding an estimated $260 million, and if he can’t get it open in just two more tries, he’ll lose all the money forever.

 

Bitcoin and crypto crashed - I lost $300,000

 

 

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes

Jan 14, 2021 — Of the existing 18.5 million Bitcoin, around 20 percent — currently worth around $140 billion — appear to be in lost or otherwise stranded

 

Half a Billion in Bitcoin, Lost in the Dump

 

I Lost $54,932 Trading Bitcoin. Here's What I Learned.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 February 2022 - 06:11 PM.