4036 replies to this topic

[dougie]

https://edwardsnowde...ack.com/p/cbdcs

old one from snowden.

When these digital gcurrencies get enacted, where will there be safe havens?

[dougie]

the G7 just called for the ban of russian gold

russia supplies anywhere from 9-13% of the worlds gold , much like oil

i am wondering if this is going to effect the gold price.  ie less supply

dharma

gannman its only a matter of time for the next leg down on the broad market

so Russian sells Gold to India who melts it and sells it to the west. Russia would need to sell it a bit cheaper to cover that cost though

[dougie]

Russia Finance Ministry: We believe that gold is the most important state reserve.

 

so does that not in turn mean that for US and G&, surpressing GOLD is a key strategic aim?

[senorBS]

i see one more surge high in dollar Senor: up to mid July?

that will correspond to fresh lows in gold imo. maybe 1770 area?

then we see

Honestly don't know, miners looking very sold out (does not mean they won't go lower) and miner/gold ratios look "bottomy" again, might be a nice road map if dollar thrust higher plays out. Holding that whopping 5% long position from late last week, that's how confident I am!

 

Senor

[dougie]

do you not hold LT positions as well?

[senorBS]

do you not hold LT positions as well?

Nope

[Russ]

gannman here is a post from 5 days ago of felix zulaf, although i think this was an interview  from 4 months ago

still worth the listen

felixs track record is stellar

dharma

da_cheif (sic) aka Don Wolanchuk responds, that Felix was bearishly wrong in 2014, however this time Felix is both extremely bearish and then extremely bullish for the broad markets.   https://www.traders-...ld/#entry870156

 

Edited by Russ, 26 June 2022 - 09:56 PM.

[gannman]

looking at gld at 4 am this could be the actual bottom here . if so gld should continue 

 

straight up and should have a very good week . we will see 

[gannman]

bottom line here when gld closes above 176 and stays above 176 its game on imo 

[jabat]

A Nice Reset in GDX

By Avi

For many months, I have been struggling with the GDX count, as it failed several times to provide us with a tradeable Fibonacci Pinball structure off any lows.  In fact, the multiple bottoms in the same region had made this quite complex to track from an Elliott Wave standpoint.  

Moreover, when NEM was striking its high in April, I was quite vocal in noting my intention to reduce my holdings for the first time since I began buying into the complex in September of 2015.  It had struck the target I had wanted to see on its larger degree structure, so, for me, it was time to cash in a sizeable portion of the holdings I had in NEM.   And, now I am looking to redeploy that cash.

I was on a 9+ hour flight on Friday, which allowed me to re-look at the mining complex.  And, the one thing that was quite evident from the charts I looked at was that they all had a 5-wave c-wave decline in its final stages of completion, with strong positive divergences on their daily charts.   And, as you can see, this is exactly how I am seeing the GDX daily chart as well.  While there is still some potential for a little lower before this c-wave completes, I would still view the current region as a buyable opportunity for those that do not have already have positions in the complex.

In the bigger picture, the complex has certainly made me much more nervous to be holding oversized positions (which was one of the other reasons I raised cash in my NEM holdings this past April).   Most of the charts have turned extremely sloppy off their 2015 lows, which suggests larger degree diagonals are taking shape.   While that is not really a concern for me at this very moment, I just want to tell you that I will likely be raising 70%+ cash after the next 5-wave rally outlined on my GDX chart completes.

But, that leads me to my next point.  I am going to wait for the next 5-wave rally off a low to complete in GDX before I am interested in redeploying MOST of the cash I raised from NEM.   I will likely be adding some further positions over the coming week or two, but most of the cash will be deployed once we see that [i][ii] structure develop over the coming weeks.

Also, should we see an impulsive move off an expected low in GDX, I intend on aggressively trading that rally to the upside within the Fibonacci Pinball structure that develops.

While silver had a potential [i][ii]1-2 structure in place, I warned not to get too bullish until the set up actually triggered.  And, at the end of the week, we saw that 1-2 invalidate when silver broke down below the level of the potential wave 1.  So, at this point in time, silver still has not shown us a desire to maintain the [i][ii] potential immediate bullish structure, and still leaves the potential for a lower low in wave [2].  

As far as GLD is concerned, the bigger picture still strongly suggests we are in a 4th wave in an expanding ending diagonal.  So, there is nothing further I can add to my analysis on this.

Also, please take note that the daily charts are still retaining a strong positively divergent bottoming signal in the MACD.  So, once we do get a final signal that a bottom has been struck, I think we can see a powerful rally thereafter.