4036 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

The Aussie gold index XGD daily from the low Sept 29.

 

[senorBS]

Nice first of year upside action so far in metals, if rally holds upside acceleration possibility is real IMO, especially in miners who have been underperforming, and especially in silver stocks that have been massively underperforming. I will be watching the SILJ/SLV and SIL/SLV ratios I mentioned last week for signs of potentially "uncoiling" to the upside. Looks like a very interesting first trading day

 

Senor

[dougie]

Contrarian view on USD
https://ci6.googleus...1b1_777x598.png

[linrom1]

Russ, what does MA mean by "panic cycle"? Panic was a term used to describe severe selloffs.

[Russ]

Russ, what does MA mean by "panic cycle"? Panic was a term used to describe severe selloffs.

From MA: 

 

Any trend can unfold in a steady manner for a specific period of time however it may also unfold in a sudden panic either to the upside or the downside.

 

Panic Cycle A Panic Cycle differs from a Turning Point or a Directional Change insofar as it reflects neither a high nor a guaranteed low and it is not the beginning of a change in trend. Here we are concerned solely with the confusing abrupt move. These targets again need NOT be the actual high or low, yet on occasion they will provide such targets if extreme as was the case in 1987. Instead, a Panic Cycle more often than not is an outside reversals or just a capitulation. Once more, it is neither a target for a specific high or low, just greater price movement that can be dramatic in one direction, or an outside reversal exceeding the:previous:session:high:and:penetrating:it’s:low Here we provide a Forecast Array on the German Dax published in 1999. We can see it had dforecast correctly a Panic Cycle for 2008. It correctly pinpointed the high for 2000 and the low in 2003 as noted on the Composite, Empirical, Trading Cycle, and Volatility. This will give you an idea how these forecasts have been highly reliable.

 

https://s3.amazonaws...nual-models.pdf

[Russ]

Chart predicting 1900 Gold soon.

 

https://www.tradingv...to-expect-next/

[Smithy]

Today's spot gold $1850 may prove to be a short term peak and we get the pause that refreshes.

 

I'm wrong if gold gets above $1850.

 

Curr.  $1830.

Edited by Smithy, 03 January 2023 - 11:49 AM.

[dharma]

did some culling this am. will not be a good sign if this rally gets erased. 

watching

dharma

[linrom1]

DXY is going to new highs. That's a nice chart of DXY that Dougie posted.

[linrom1]

 

Russ, what does MA mean by "panic cycle"? Panic was a term used to describe severe selloffs.

From MA: 

 

Any trend can unfold in a steady manner for a specific period of time however it may also unfold in a sudden panic either to the upside or the downside.

 

Panic Cycle A Panic Cycle differs from a Turning Point or a Directional Change insofar as it reflects neither a high nor a guaranteed low and it is not the beginning of a change in trend. Here we are concerned solely with the confusing abrupt move. These targets again need NOT be the actual high or low, yet on occasion they will provide such targets if extreme as was the case in 1987. Instead, a Panic Cycle more often than not is an outside reversals or just a capitulation. Once more, it is neither a target for a specific high or low, just greater price movement that can be dramatic in one direction, or an outside reversal exceeding the:previous:session:high:and:penetrating:it’s:low Here we provide a Forecast Array on the German Dax published in 1999. We can see it had dforecast correctly a Panic Cycle for 2008. It correctly pinpointed the high for 2000 and the low in 2003 as noted on the Composite, Empirical, Trading Cycle, and Volatility. This will give you an idea how these forecasts have been highly reliable.

 

https://s3.amazonaws...nual-models.pdf

 

Thanks, that's what I thought how he was using the term.