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seems its time for a new thread. war markets are treacherous


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#51 K Wave

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Posted 05 March 2022 - 11:58 AM

Now that Silver 4 hour is FINALLY back in full bull mode...perhaps something along these lines in store?

 

silver.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#52 K Wave

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Posted 05 March 2022 - 12:04 PM

AGQ finally ripe?

 

If silver is about to launch, this one should start playing some big time catch up with the daily gearing factor....

 

AGQ.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#53 jabat

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Posted 05 March 2022 - 08:31 PM

Cautious, But Long In Metals Complex

By Avi

I have made no secret of the fact that the patterns in the metals complex are lack-luster.  I have made it no secret that I have a hard time trusting a market that does not provide us with a solid Fibonacci Pinball structure.   Yet, I have also made it no secret that I remain net long until the market tells me otherwise.

You see, our Fibonacci Pinball structure is a standard that we use to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time.  But, just as other standards work, the market does not always abide by standards.   So, whereas my larger degree perspective has been bullish in the metals complex since we struck the bottom in late 2015, I have to yield to that perspective in the event of doubt.  And, that is exactly what I am doing at this time.

But, the other factor to consider is that many want to trade much more aggressively during a bullish trend.   And, that is fine.  I appreciate boosting my profits by doing so as well.   Yet, I do so with strong risk management parameters.  If I had a solid Fibonacci Pinball structure with tight risk management parameters, I would be trading quite aggressively on the long side at this time.  However, without such tight risk management parameters, I am resigned to letting my regular positions run.  Keep in mind the old adage in the market:  Bulls get fat; bears get fat; but pigs get slaughtered.   When I do not have good risk management parameters, I do not want to be a pig.

As it stands today, I have nothing that tells me to be outright bearish, so I continue to let my longs run.  But, as I have noted time and again, I do not have a strong Fibonacci Pinball structure to guide me.  So, I seek clues in the market which tell me when to let my longs run, and when caution may be advised.  As of now, my longs are running, but there is a point of caution I want to highlight for the coming week or so, as presented in the GLD chart.

Please take a look at the attached daily chart for GLD.  Again, it is no secret that I expected this bull market in GLD to take us much higher in the coming years.  I have had my higher targets presented for many years.  But, the structure of this rally does have me a bit more concerned than I normally would be during a bullish move in the metals complex.  And, the GLD seems to be approaching another point of concern.  Mind you, I am not going to be doing anything different to my positioning at this time.   But, I need to point out the concern evident in the chart, and just keep it in the back of our mind that something MAY go wrong which will cause us to protect our positions.

I want to digress here for a moment to provide you a bit of insight into my thought process.  I am responsible for putting out analysis to almost 8500 subscribers to our services.  And, believe me, I take that responsibility more serious than I can ever explain to you.  

In fact, when I make a bad call, my wife can testify to the fact that I am unable to sleep for several nights thereafter, as the weight of having caused people to lose some of their hard-earned money weighs extremely heavily upon me.  The truth is that there have been times when I have reconsidered doing what I do as it is hard for me to deal with the fact that I have caused some people to lose money at times.   

So, when I review a chart, not only do I review it for the analysis that I present to you in each and every post that I make, I am also constantly reviewing that chart to identify the point at which I can be wrong.   And, that brings me to the GLD chart.

I have left this red count on the GLD chart, as this ALTERNATIVE potential is seen most clearly on this chart, whereas I really do not see it in the other charts. (This is also a good point in time to note that GLD, GDX and silver are all presenting within different structures at this time, which certainly makes this effort much more difficult).

As you can see from the daily GLD chart, we are approaching a 1.00 extension, which can easily be a b-wave high.  But, as I noted, I do not see a similar topping pattern in the other charts, so I am simply presenting this as a point of caution, as the reaction off that 1.00 extension (if any) must be watched carefully.  Clearly, if we see a 5-wave decline from that resistance, then I will have to take that red count much more seriously.

In the meantime, I have been working on the silver chart over and over, as it has been quite difficult to work with due to all the overlap we have seen for the last two years.  And, after much consideration, I have decided to present a much more bullish picture of the silver market, as shown on the weekly SLV chart.  But, it does come with a proviso – the wave i of [3] would be taking shape as a leading diagonal, as the rally off the recent low has been quite overlapping.  While I am willing to give the market some room to prove this to me, I want to note that this structure is less than ideal.  So, I will be take this count with some caution, at least until the i-ii structure fills in and then breaks out over the high of wave i – wherever it completes in the coming weeks.  So, for now, I am giving the market some room to run, but doing so very cautiously.

As far as the GDX, again, I am giving it room to run, at least until I see something that tells me I can no longer give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.

In summary, I am still giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt.  But, at the same time, I am constantly looking for the point at which they may fail.   And, the reason I am doing so is that there is something that just does not “look” right about the pattern within which we are rallying.  And, my experience tells me that I must remain vigilant and on my toes, and not to be taken in by the wonderful profits my positions are earning on the long side.   But, until such time I see a reason to assume the bulls have stumbled, I will continue to be looking higher, as well as making sure that all pullbacks remain corrective looking, which suggests we continue on our current run higher.

For those that are looking to buy physical metals, I would highly suggest you visit a site of one



#54 K Wave

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Posted 05 March 2022 - 09:35 PM

Gold lifting off out of HUGE base against Yen...up move could last nearly the entire 2020s decade

 

Xjpy.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#55 gannman

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 01:05 AM

Michael Oliver | King World News


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#56 linrom1

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 11:27 AM

 

Major divergence in agricultural commodities, however, it looks like we still have one wave up before large ABC correction.



#57 linrom1

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 11:42 AM

 

Cautious, But Long In Metals Complex

By Avi

Translation of this long analysis: I am nor a bull in this market, I don't trust anything I see; however, all my subscribers are gold bugs so I have no choice to say that I am long but issue warning after warning.



#58 gannman

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 06:29 PM

at 6 30 on a sunday evening oil is at 125 bucks a barrel up 9 dollars. gold is up 16 dollars and silver is up 30 cents

 

going to be an interesting week . the sp futures are down 50 points 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#59 K Wave

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 06:35 PM

Now Silver 26 cleared....only 28 and 30 left

 

Once it clears the huge pivot at 28, 30 should be just a formality....and then possible explosion upside...


Edited by K Wave, 06 March 2022 - 06:35 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#60 K Wave

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Posted 06 March 2022 - 06:38 PM

Gold in Yen picks up right where left off on Friday...in explosion mode...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy