Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:35 PM
LOL!
BEARS vs BULLS, continued...
Edited by dTraderB, 27 March 2022 - 04:43 PM.
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:43 PM
A hard fought week where the small net profit came mainly from OPTIONS - daytrade and one-day duration, and also rolling over almost dead PUTS into JUNE expiration on shallow QQQ pullbacks. BIG HEDGE ES & NQ profits, very big Losses from PUTS, modest profits from NVDA & TESLA PUTS, and very large profits from NQ DAYTRADING. Several PUTS were also closed as they approached the "jump off the cliff" erosion curve. I expect more losses in PUTS if market rallies but will add more and also reopen 2nd ES & NQ hedge longs. Will add to current 12 UVXY CALLS
Will also again dabble in ST PUTS & CALLS. Watching TESLA... and any stock or ETF for ST PUTS
MARCH will again be a profitable month but not as good as JAN & FEB
However, it is RISK ON at these levels
69 SPY PUTS
1 ES HEDGE LONG
72 QQQ PUTS
1 NQ HEDGE LONG
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:44 PM
Adam makes many good calls but MARKETS are not as simple as this:
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:45 PM
Adam makes many good calls but MARKETS are not as simple as this:
Many asking how $SPX rallied 400+ points on horrible news. It always does: Every low in history (see March 2020) occurred on a bearish news backdrop. "Markets climb a wall of worry". If trading headlines instead of the chart, you'll always be on wrong side. Vice versa for highs
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:48 PM
Yes, Tom, eventually they will..
Unemployment Rate Will Turn Up
It has been a great accomplishment that the unemployment rate has fallen in the 2 years since the misguided Covid shutdown in 2020, and is almost back to the pre-Covid low. But this progress is likely coming to an end right now.
Economists will one day look back, and say that it was the Fed’s tightening starting at the March 16, 2022 FOMC meeting that will get the credit/blame for the coming rise in unemployment. But that rise was already baked in well ahead of the Fed’s actions.
https://www.mcoscill...e_will_turn_up/
March 26, 2022
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:50 PM
A friend sent this, LOL!
But, you never know!
Fasten your Seat Belt
Why we have never felt more bearish in our 25 years career
The background:
· The US stock market is more overvalued than it has even been (https://research.nav...ket-valuations/) which in itself has little influence on short-term market gyrations. To this we must add that the Grantham behavioral PE ratio (trying to justify higher PE ratios by low volatility, macro and ROE volatility) is now indicating that the markets are way too high as well.
· Debt level around the world is the highest it has even been (https://blogs.imf.or...d-226-trillion/) and much of this debt has been raised for unproductive use (buyback of existing capital, fiscal largess for short term consumption,…) while the stock of capital has failed to raise as much, by a wide margin (https://www.linkedin...-damien-cleusix).
· Central Banks uber-expansive monetary policies have failed to see the imbalance develop and are over-confident on the strength of the financial system. They think that because banks, especially in the US are better capitalized, because household and non-financial companies balance sheet appear strong, that everything will be fine.
https://research.nav...your-seat-belt/
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:51 PM
Strong opinions on the RE sector
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:53 PM
Am not too involved in this type of analysis but looks interesting, especially for a holder of PUTS!
Member
Posted 27 March 2022 - 04:54 PM
Yeah, 2022 will mirror 1969?
Am not too involved in this type of analysis but looks interesting, especially for a holder of PUTS!
HY Bond McClellan Oscillator is up at a pretty high level, indicative of a topping event for stock prices. I wish made these data available earlier in the day, when they could be more useful.
