462 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan Retweeted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Samantha LaDuc

 

@SamanthaLaDuc

·

20h

 

In a nutshell: Hiking cycles end when the FF rate meets the 2-year. h/t

@McClellanOsc

Telling ya right now, market has not priced this in and growth has not corrected enough. But that's my book; you do you.

 

 

[dTraderB]

this (disney) 117 

52-week low

 

Will place CALL orders, should be filled if traded below 115

not a priority but at these levels a high probability trade

maybe start buying the stock in LT Portfolio

[dTraderB]

"only" down to -150

another -150 to reach oversold reversal zone near -300,  from -200 to - 300

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Will be closing 1 NQ HEDGE SHORT and add extra lot to NQ SHORT DAYTRADES after 9:30am --  near new LOW of the session.

[dTraderB]

From MARKETWATCH:
"Howell says a normal tightening cycle would lead the S&P 500 down by around 15%, if a recession is thrown on top thats a 30% drop, and if theres a banking crisis on top of that, theres a 50% slide. I dont think were going to get the third, I think were getting more than the first, so Im plumbing for the middle which is about a 30% correction from the peak to the low, he said.

Since theres already about 10% of the decline from the peak, Howell says theres another 20% drop to come.


The point to remember about the financial system is that, contrary to what the economics profession says and the economic textbooks spell out, the financial system is much less a new financial system than it is in reality a refinancing system, says Howell. With some $300 trillion of global debt and the average maturity about five years, some $60 trillion needs to refinanced every year.

That declining liquidity has already been seen with the collapse in the Japanese yen (USDJPY), soaring Treasury bond yields, and spiking commodity prices. The increased volatility makes it more difficult for people to borrow against that collateral as lenders will require more margin. Howell says his index of liquidity is on the verge of entering the turbulence investment zone

Howell also said that market leadership utilities and brand names outperforming cyclicals and techs and the yield curve are saying that investors want safety and that a recession is increasingly likely..."

[dTraderB]

https://www.marketwa...ity-11650884163

From MARKETWATCH:
"Howell says a normal tightening cycle would lead the S&P 500 down by around 15%, if a recession is thrown on top thats a 30% drop, and if theres a banking crisis on top of that, theres a 50% slide. I dont think were going to get the third, I think were getting more than the first, so Im plumbing for the middle which is about a 30% correction from the peak to the low, he said.

Since theres already about 10% of the decline from the peak, Howell says theres another 20% drop to come.


The point to remember about the financial system is that, contrary to what the economics profession says and the economic textbooks spell out, the financial system is much less a new financial system than it is in reality a refinancing system, says Howell. With some $300 trillion of global debt and the average maturity about five years, some $60 trillion needs to refinanced every year.

That declining liquidity has already been seen with the collapse in the Japanese yen (USDJPY), soaring Treasury bond yields, and spiking commodity prices. The increased volatility makes it more difficult for people to borrow against that collateral as lenders will require more margin. Howell says his index of liquidity is on the verge of entering the turbulence investment zone

Howell also said that market leadership utilities and brand names outperforming cyclicals and techs and the yield curve are saying that investors want safety and that a recession is increasingly likely..."

[OEXCHAOS]

Callum Thomas has 69.4% Bears in his Twitter poll. That's a lot. II is in Buy territory. AAII is in Buy territory. Relative VIX in Buy territory. P/C's are up there.

[dTraderB]

Yeah, Very oversold, extreme "crowd" bearishness

 

BUT, it could spike down to below ES 4K in a few hours or a day or two

 

Callum Thomas has 69.4% Bears in his Twitter poll. That's a lot. II is in Buy territory. AAII is in Buy territory. Relative VIX in Buy territory. P/C's are up there.

[dTraderB]

Buying buying buying pre-market  ....

will have to open a 2nd ES SHORT HEDGE, but after 9:30am, maybe above ES 4250

 

 

UVXY up 5% at 16.22
 

will open a new PUT position after 9:45am, preferably above 16.5

 

TLT near 121 ... will close a FEW in the green although I prefer to keep all 38 CALLS; may roll the JUNE CALLS into higher strikes JULY etc etc 

 

NFLX at 212.; holding 5 CALLS, will add if below 209 

 

TESLA at 967.5     Will consider small CALL position below 950 if traded; maybe a bullish SPREAd but doubt I will have time for that

 

Bought XLF this morning to start new position in LT

Bought INDA this morning to start new position in LT
 

No time to trade YEN but LIMIT orders to short above 128.98

 

Will buy more QQQ & SPY CALLS  - JULY or later

 

Will buy IWM CALLS -- JULY or later

 

SSO/QLD/SQQQ/TQQQ Options to be considered -- one or more but do not have time to analyse

Will still start with a small position in LT and build

 

SOXX and/or SMH CALLS in LT ... 

[12SPX]

Taking my time reading everyone's thoughts here and I hate to say but TT is sounding alot like every other bear out there.  Crash talk, heading to zero etc etc etc.  Sounds practically identical to the bullishness in January that the market was going to the moon by everyone.  The bearishness is almost twice as bad however.  Take a look around though, outside of the bearishness, bond yields are dropping, believe I said around 3% is about it.  Oil is down hard under $100 again.  All the talk is talk about the Fed and raising rates is old news, they cannot go to hard on raising them or they'll create a depression.  Everyone already knew they were going to do 50 basis points, no surprise there so whats the shock to the market, there isn't, its still just trading and looking resilient to moving down much before some big earnings out this week by what I see!!  When it comes to earnings, they are currently sitting at an average level.  The most important thing though outside of everything is that bearishness is at extremes in put prices once again.  Worse then earlier in the year actually!  Sure I wish I had stayed short on the way down but I missed one oh well.  This is going to be a wide trading range for this entire year with lots of talk.  Sure we may grind our way to new highs or lows but its going to be a process not a few day thing.  Bringing my average long down to 4328 may leave this for the rest of the week....