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Real Estate Is About To Go Dead


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#11 pdx5

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 10:36 AM

 

 

Buy the bottom, sell the top

 

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

I recall reading somewhere long ago, that more money is lost by NOT selling near top than any other actions.


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#12 Rogerdodger

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 10:52 AM

Locally, all of my realtor clients are saying that they still have no inventory to sell!

Several are even married to builders who can't build quickly enough.

It's often, feast or famine.

 

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says

There's never been such a severe shortage of homes in the U.S.

3 Reasons Why the Housing Shortage Will Last for Years
 

 

 


#13 pdx5

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 12:11 PM

 

Locally, all of my realtor clients are saying that they still have no inventory to sell!

Several are even married to builders who can't build quickly enough.

It's often, feast or famine.

 

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says

There's never been such a severe shortage of homes in the U.S.

3 Reasons Why the Housing Shortage Will Last for Years
 

 

 

 

There is a lag between previous demand for houses based on lower mortgage rates and the current rise in mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months. Those who have locked in lower rates are still buying, but demand for new homes will fall quickly after the 60 day lock period expires for most. Affordability was the catalyst last time housing crashed.


Edited by pdx5, 04 May 2022 - 12:13 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#14 K Wave

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 12:57 PM

 

 

Locally, all of my realtor clients are saying that they still have no inventory to sell!

Several are even married to builders who can't build quickly enough.

It's often, feast or famine.

 

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says

There's never been such a severe shortage of homes in the U.S.

3 Reasons Why the Housing Shortage Will Last for Years
 

 

 

 

There is a lag between previous demand for houses based on lower mortgage rates and the current rise in mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months. Those who have locked in lower rates are still buying, but demand for new homes will fall quickly after the 60 day lock period expires for most. Affordability was the catalyst last time housing crashed.

 

Can vouch for this....family member has a rate lock from a few months back on a cash out deal that expires later this month.

 

Affordability has crashed the most on record YOY.......and another 50 basis point rise will put affordability at all time low.

 

https://www.zerohedg...ty-just-05-away


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#15 orange

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 12:50 PM

 

Locally, all of my realtor clients are saying that they still have no inventory to sell!

Several are even married to builders who can't build quickly enough.

It's often, feast or famine.

 

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says

There's never been such a severe shortage of homes in the U.S.

3 Reasons Why the Housing Shortage Will Last for Years
 

 

 

 

This is the problem. There's no inventory and those who want to buy will buy at any price. It doesn't matter if they need to pay $500,000 more. They want a home and they'll shell out the douhg for it.


"When your position is underwater, average down" - Professional Trader


#16 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 03:02 PM

Yes people want a home, and want in it.  Many first time buyers do not understand the value of the dollar...  Number of new home sales have been dropping due to cost of the new homes, and ability to get supply..   The backlog of ships waiting to unload has not subsided so cost of products are high on land due to supply and demand..   China is not shipping as much due to shipping costs and back log problems in the US, and material resources are too expensive to make a profit.    Everything goes to supply chain..   FED will raise interest rates to slow demand for supply to catch up...    Since we continue to go in the wrong direction and supply is not catching up fed will continue to raise rates.   



#17 K Wave

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 08:19 AM

Already well underway

 

And after yesterday affordability even worse...

 

https://www.zerohedg...housing-outlook


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#18 K Wave

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Posted 07 May 2022 - 07:17 AM

And there it is...

 

Wife who is in Real Estate was looking though the MLS here in the formerly the Super Hot Austin market this morning, and house after house after house coming back on the market after deals have fallen through....

 

Get ready for the inventory surge...and pricing to reflect that soon enough

 

Been telling her this was coming, and she kept sayin' not in Austin....Heh Heh, we'll see about that...

 

And our commercial broker who was looking at me like I was crazy when I showed him the 10 year floor recapture chart back in December, and told him rates were about to soar, not laughing any more....

Even I wasn't expecting this much this fast, but that is what  80 year cycle floor recaptures are capable of...and we may not even be done with the initial surge yet...look what happened on the CRB index breakout...


Edited by K Wave, 07 May 2022 - 07:19 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#19 tradesurfer

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Posted 08 May 2022 - 10:48 AM

I see the IYR ETF has made a big head and shoulders top, looks similar to the 2007 top.  How hard and fast real estate crashes is not clear to me.  

 

My sister has a rate lock on a condo in New Jersey that expires near the end of May.  If the rate lock expires before the construction is finished she could then be in the floating rate which would be 1 or 2 % higher and make the deal fail.

 

She is only putting minimum down payment .  I fear the worst, that she is buying right at the top of this cycle.

 

I have been trying to think what advice to give in terms of how to protect against a real estate collpase.

 

Buy REK inverse real estate ETF maybe ?



#20 CLK

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Posted 08 May 2022 - 11:59 AM

Yes people want a home, and want in it.  Many first time buyers do not understand the value of the dollar...  Number of new home sales have been dropping due to cost of the new homes, and ability to get supply..   The backlog of ships waiting to unload has not subsided so cost of products are high on land due to supply and demand..   China is not shipping as much due to shipping costs and back log problems in the US, and material resources are too expensive to make a profit.    Everything goes to supply chain..   FED will raise interest rates to slow demand for supply to catch up...    Since we continue to go in the wrong direction and supply is not catching up fed will continue to raise rates.



But do you really want toxic Chinese drywall or O.S.B. in your home?