325 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Lumber’s Pullback is a Message for Real Estate

 

 

 

....Lumber prices serve as a leading indication for a variety of housing data, including housing starts, home sales, and home prices...

 

 

..............There is also a peculiar phenomenon in the mortgage market right now, in which conventional 30-year mortgages are now at a higher interest rate than “jumbo” mortgages.

Historically the jumbo loans have commanded a higher mortgage rate, because of the perception that a more expensive house would be more difficult for a bank to dispose of in foreclosure.  I happened to meet a senior loan officer this week, and I asked him about this anomaly.

https://www.mcoscill...or_real_estate/

 

[dTraderB]

Mysterybroker missed the big Friday plunge and recovery

 

Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli

· May 19

For those asking after (and dunking on) #MysteryBroker, a quick update.

He's "not deterred" from his belief a "vicious rally" is setting up by the S&P 500 giving up the

bounce that began last Thursday. Says the S&P filled a gap and indiscriminate selling in "safe" sectors a plus.

The #MysteryBroker pushes back hard on the gathering consensus that a US recession is imminent. The 3mo/10-yr yield curve signal says no, gasoline prices are lower than early 2010s in real terms, Fed tightening takes a long time to stop growth, supply-chain stress has peaked.

The #MysteryBroker also notes the dissonance in so many investors calling for a recession while also remaining overweight energy and other commodity stocks.

 

 

Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli

· May 19

For those asking after (and dunking on) #MysteryBroker, a quick update. He's "not deterred" from his belief a "vicious rally" is setting up by the S&P 500 giving up the bounce that began last Thursday. Says the S&P filled a gap and indiscriminate selling in "safe" sectors a plus.

[redfoliage2]

Weekly charts for indices likely to reverse this week, we may see a 5% up week ........................

[dTraderB]

Walter Deemer

 

@WalterDeemer

·

4m

 

Lots of folks looking for V bottom a la 2018/2020. But this time "Don't Fight The Fed" still in force, so market more likely to make an initial low somewhere, bounce, then - at best - go thru base-building process. So if we get a V bottom suspect it will be just a short-term one.

 

[K Wave]

Interesting spot here on Rusty..

 

WAS NOT able to reclaim the 1792-94 pivot on first crack at it...

 

If it pushes on thru later, then bulls may finally take the Swing Term ball, but back below 1780 before then, and bulls not quite ready to rumble just yet...

 

In fact, could still get downright ugly....

 

see what happens dead ahead here....

Edited by K Wave, 22 May 2022 - 09:08 PM.

[K Wave]

Lumber’s Pullback is a Message for Real Estate

 

Uhhh....Homebuilder Index gave the warning right after the 1st of the year...

 

Is why I have been chompin' at the bit to short the REITS...they managed to hold up quite a bit longer but the same signal has now been given...

 

[linrom1]

The bounce that everyone is looking for is here.

[K Wave]

And now we watch crude...as likely imminent pretty big decision here at 110....

 

Bulls have now had A LOT of chances to move it on up, but so far.. NO DICE....

[K Wave]

Meanwhile, Bitcoin on day 15 of The Great Battle for 30K

[dTraderB]

Quiet low-range market since 5am. A few NQ trades, another attempt to rally went as far as ES 3940 but stopped there. However, this rally may go as high as 4000 today, or fail & fall below 3870

Market looks a bit stronger than the weakest period on Friday:

That ES 3700 mentioned in an earlier post today is just around the corner.... and this BLACK FRIDAY plunge could be continue into MONDAY
But, this is extreme selling, oversold, desperation, lack of bids, bid-less almost.... reminds me of previous significant LOWS..