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The Elusive BOTTOM - bulls floundering as QT begins


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:13 PM

I am calling a bottom unless ES closes below 4050 by end of this week. 

 

The BOTTOM has been elusive, BULLS are floundering, QT begins, but the market has take a tremendous hit with 

widespread selling and should now be ready for at least 2 weeks of rallying. 

 

Only major geopolitical events can prevent a rally. UKRAINE is the most serious one but N KOREA seems to be 

in an unstable state....

 

A smaller than average profit last week but it was much slower & cautious trading. 

 

Holding 1 each ES & NQ HEDGE SHORT, will close and/or roll this week.

12 SPY CALLS, 8 QQQ CALLS

18 UVXY CALLS, 27 TLT CALLS

AAPL, MSFT, INDA, NVDA,  SOXX, TESLA spread, and several small positions in Stocks & Stock CALLS



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:18 PM

Have a great weekend! After a big 6% week, #ES_F based all week.
 
Pattern is a bull triangle & it determines next leg
 
Plan next week: Triangle support = 4085 & resistance is 4190.
'
>4130 triggers rally, targeting 50dma at 4250, sell there.
 
4085 fails, we sell direct to 4035, 3980


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:21 PM

Good advice. Last week I was not convinced UP or DOWN, market chopped  about a 100-point range, broke above then retraced... so I was much more cautious and traded far less than previous weeks. This week could be the same unless there is higher  volatility and bigger swings 

 

I think most new traders trade far too large (I certainly did). Until you have a process & steadily manage risk, large size just = large eventual losses. Sizing down early on heavily boosted my account growth: It takes emotion out, putting the focus on process. Small wins add up
 

 

Have a great weekend! After a big 6% week, #ES_F based all week.
 
Pattern is a bull triangle & it determines next leg
 
Plan next week: Triangle support = 4085 & resistance is 4190.
'
>4130 triggers rally, targeting 50dma at 4250, sell there.
 
4085 fails, we sell direct to 4035, 3980

 



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:25 PM

After 2022 HIGHS, is retracing and could hit the zero line before resuming uptrend

 

McClellanOsc_1314.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:26 PM

Flat M2 Growth Means Flat Period For Stocks
 

m2_spx_june2022.gif

 

June 03, 2022

 
 
 
Now we are in the “expired growth” phase, when the flat M2/GDP ratio says no more big party for the stock market.  This can also be seen when we look at the 12-month rate of change (ROC) of the SP500 versus the M2/GDP ratio. 
 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:29 PM

Slightly bearish ... but basically flat, meaning it is of little or no value this week. 

 

 

 
 
 
rCsYSbb4_normal.jpg
 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    47.9%
  •  
    DOWN
    52.1%
3,666 votes·Final results
 
 
 
rCsYSbb4_normal.jpg
 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    47.9%
  •  
    DOWN
    52.1%
3,666 votes·Final results


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:36 PM

Reminds me of the DOT COM bubble bursting....  many "stars" crashed & burned .... to nothingness

 

Tiger Global drops 14% in May during the tech sell-off, pushing hedge fund’s 2022 losses to over 50%
PUBLISHED THU, JUN 2 20229:27 AM EDT  

UPDATED THU, JUN 2 202211:47 AM EDT

https://www.cnbc.com...taboolainternal



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:40 PM

Finally, a 3rd NQ trade today after markets sleeping for an hour or so

 

Wall Street’s top executives making the rounds at financial conferences this week delivered dire warnings about the economy, led by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that a “hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way.” That sentiment was echoed by Goldman Sachs President John Waldron, who called the overlapping “shocks to the system” unprecedented. Even regional bank CEO Bill Demchak said he thought a recession was unavoidable.

https://www.cnbc.com...-to-expect.html



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:45 PM

I agree but not straight up and a difficult market to trade during next 2 to 3 months

 

 

This market strategist with a spot-on record sees stocks surging 15% to 25% from their May low

 

The last time I reported on Martin was in early May, when he was predicting an 8% to 15% rally. The market’s recent gains have satisfied that prediction.

Last week’s market action has led Martin to become more bullish than he was a month ago. He now predicts that the rally from the market’s recent low will be in the 15% to 25% range, with the “largest gains in the Nasdaq and technology arenas.”

Does this mean that the bear market is over? On this, Martin says the “jury is still out.” At a minimum, however, he says that a retest of the market’s recent lows is not likely in the next month or two.

 

https://www.marketwa...1?mod=home-page



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 05 June 2022 - 06:58 PM

Inflation even 0.1% lower will be interpreted as "peak inflation has passed" and markets will rally

Timid ECB will kick the can down the road, again

  RBA and ECB rate announcements, US May inflation report coming up next week

 

https://www.fxstreet...onomic-calendar