203 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

My "Crazy" crash window target when at 15K suddenly not looking so crazy after all, eh?

 

[redfoliage2]

Statistically this a bottom (ST/IT) with 95% probability, tomorrow it will tell if this is the case   ..................

Edited by redfoliage2, 14 June 2022 - 01:59 PM.

[K Wave]

And again, just like with Apple after the initial break, if we do get a bounce at the target, which is reasonably likely, considering how far we came to get there, I think folks are going to be shocked at how weak the rally off of it will be...a mostly sideways multi-week upswing is my guess.

 

Once we go through the 900 day, then S hits the fan in earnest...

[K Wave]

And...due to the insane nature of this bubble, I will not be at all surprised if the Mega Caps suddenly start crashing and the break comes earlier than later.

 

But right now, assuming we bottom in next couple days, looking for that sideways up phase into the July Earnings reports....where I expect nuclear bombs to start falling from the Mega Caps.

[K Wave]

Crude....Wheeeeee...

[redfoliage2]

Believe or not Mr. Market just confirmed that the Fed will raise by 75 BPs tomorrow, exactly the same as the consensus...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 14 June 2022 - 02:57 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Believe or not Mr. Market just confirmed that the Fed will raise by 75 BPs tomorrow, exactly the same as the consensus...........................

BTW, I see today's market action bullish. Take a look at NYAD, buying programs started today...............

Edited by redfoliage2, 14 June 2022 - 03:15 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Statistically this a bottom (ST/IT) with 95% probability, tomorrow it will tell if this is the case   ..................

If the Fed goes with the market consensus hiking 75 BPs instead of 100 BPs as bears have been hoping, this ST/IT bottom will be confirmed  ....................

[K Wave]

JP 20 yr right back up to the highs....

 

Watching BOJ lose control in real time it seems....

The game of Whac-A-Mole probably not going to last a whole lot longer..

 

[12SPX]

Not surprised to see the market up overnight and today and its no surprise as bonds are down a little waiting for the Fed decision.  Options are still pricing in the end of the world so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the announcement.  Put options are saying the move will be up for sure as I can't believe the prices but as I've said the market is in no where land and has no real set direction right now in grind grind grind mode.  There are a lot of gaps above to fill and my expiration numbers still have us settling above 3900 for this cycle but who knows, guess we'll all know after the announcement and question period.  One thing for sure is the market is really wound up so the move after could be huge!!