Jump to content



Photo

Fundamental Bearishness.


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,338 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 10:07 AM

From this weekend.

CallumFundyBullBearSpread06-19-22.jpg


Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#2 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,836 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 10:45 AM

Yes...but do sentiment charts like this "work" under bear market conditions?

 

For example: 2007-2009?

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#3 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,737 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 12:51 PM

If you are invested in the market, it will take 5 years to get your money back.

#4 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,338 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 01:30 PM

Yes...but do sentiment charts like this "work" under bear market conditions?

 

For example: 2007-2009?

 

Fib

Well, we don't have data from this from then. But it worked at the 2000 low! This, market, however, bears little resemblance to that market. My guess is that this one will look a bit more like 1969-1974, -ish.

 

Still, with that much fundamental pessimism, it's very possible that all the near-term bad news is in the market.


Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#5 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,836 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 02:47 PM

 

Yes...but do sentiment charts like this "work" under bear market conditions?

 

For example: 2007-2009?

 

Fib

 

Well, we don't have data from this from then. But it worked at the 2000 low! This, market, however, bears little resemblance to that market. My guess is that this one will look a bit more like 1969-1974, -ish.

 

Still, with that much fundamental pessimism, it's very possible that all the near-term bad news is in the market.

 

Well...near term...2-3 days...OK

 

But on a short and intermediate term basis, which includes all of the upcoming 3rd quarter of 2022, businesses are going to get wrecked unnecessary by the FED and the Bolshevik's agenda, and that's going to keep a cap on any kind of countertrend technical move in prices to relieve any and all underlying "oversold" extremes.

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 23 June 2022 - 02:51 PM.

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#6 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,565 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 06:31 PM

If you are invested in the market, it will take 5 years to get your money back.

Even if FED reduces interest rates to zero at warp speed and releases record levels of QE in 2023?

https://www.zerohedg...-3-rate-cuts-qe


Edited by pdx5, 23 June 2022 - 06:32 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 524 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 07:54 PM

 

If you are invested in the market, it will take 5 years to get your money back.

Even if FED reduces interest rates to zero at warp speed and releases record levels of QE in 2023?

https://www.zerohedg...-3-rate-cuts-qe

 

Ok, say you are saying that they are going to stop inflation. Questions how high do rates go and how long will it take?



#8 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,565 posts

Posted 23 June 2022 - 09:28 PM

 

 

Ok, say you are saying that they are going to stop inflation. Questions how high do rates go and how long will it take?

 

 Central bank officials project the federal funds rate could be between 3% and 3.5% by the end of the year. That's it, no matter what the inflation rate will be at year end. FED will point to slowing of housing sales, drop in job openings, retail sales in downtrend etc as enough proof to not require any higher rates in 2022. In 2023 they will cut rates at warp speed and pump up QE. This is my opinion based on observing the FED since Volcker left the FED.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,737 posts

Posted 24 June 2022 - 07:33 AM

I wonder how many times the market dropped 25% for 6 months and not led to an ultimate 70%+ bear market?

This does not have a cyclical look to it.