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Pop and Drop Monday?


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#1 blustar

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Posted 09 July 2022 - 10:40 PM

I see about a 12% decline top to bottom in the Spx July 11-18. Ill be posting later tomorrow on my blog as to why I have come to this conclusion. . For now I see a possible 50-55 point gap up followed by an abc drop into July 18 to around 3467/70. The precious metals are looking increasingly attractive for a strong short term rally into Aug 4-5. I believe the dollar is topping short term but with more up side expected ahead for the longer term into early next year. I believe we are in a severe bear market into a March 17,2022 the word is deflation with Spx 2071 possible by March 2023 and gold could fall to between $1100 & $1200 at that time

#2 slupert

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 09:25 AM

On a roll, you might just nail this one too. Gap up then back to reality The market has had a pass the last couple weeks, but the repricing routine will begin once again. Data on the 13th might be better than expected but will not cancel the coming 75. The focus will remain on "sticky" inflation. (JMHO)



#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 09:45 AM

Last week Mike Burks seasonality statistics were positive, but he didn't believe!

SPX was UP 74 points!
 

 

Seasonality for next week is positive,

however I think the buy the dip crowd had its day.

 

So what is coming week's seasonality?

 

Average returns for the coming week have been negative by all measures.

.



#4 slupert

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 10:02 AM

On a roll, you might just nail this one too. Gap up then back to reality The market has had a pass the last couple weeks, but the repricing routine will begin once again. Data on the 13th might be better than expected but will not cancel the coming 75. The focus will remain on "sticky" inflation. (JMHO)

I'm talking about the generl assumptions of the post for next week, notnthe numbers or time frames. The rest of the post assumes deflation being  our real LT problem. I think that time frame is wrong way too early for that target on SPX. However, next year I think Americans will have the term "currency crisis" added to their vocabulary. It is certainlt ironoc as wee watch bitcoin floundering, I am no means a fan of Bitcoin, however, it is possble its biggest run is is still ahead of it. The potential for things happening here we never thought were possible are becoming a lot more possible. (JMHO)



#5 pdx5

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 01:25 PM

Deflation is unlikely with Jerome Powell at the helm at FED.

He does not even need paper and ink any more to create Billions of dollars.

Since nothing much has been done (except timid interest rate increases), why should inflation reduce on it's own?

In previous times of high inflation, it continued on for many years. 


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#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 05:13 PM

To ES immediate support at 3872 on the gap down?


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 July 2022 - 05:17 PM.


#7 blustar

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Posted 10 July 2022 - 07:24 PM

Debt bubble implosion, dries up liquidity and it deflates assets. My downside target is 3466-70 by July 18, 3810ish by Sept 20 and then down to 2863 by January 6, which finishes a Triple Three A wave of [X] of {Z} of Wave IV (Wave III 1974-1999), a huge B wave rally into early/Mid Feb to near 3290 then crash-ola into March 17 to near 1865 SPX. [Y] of IV finished on Nov 5, 2021. There have been no true 5 wave advances since 1999.

 

Needless to say I'm bearish into July 18 (looking for a gap up 7/11)

 


He does not even need paper and ink any more to create Billions of dollars.

Since nothing much has been done (except timid interest rate increases), why should inflation reduce on it's own?

In previous times of high inflation, it continued on for many years. 



#8 blustar

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Posted 11 July 2022 - 08:20 AM

We obviously are not going to have a gap up today.

 

I sent this out to my subs this morning:

 

Money is flowing into bonds which supports the dollar and nowhere else, suggesting perhaps higher prices on the SPX today. Also, the recent move down looks like an a-b-c "b" wave from Friday. The internal waves suggest higher prices as do the daily indicators as well as a 4 Hour probable NEG D, which has NOT shown up yet.

 

Today is the expected 8 TD top, but there are other cycles surrounding this cycle that may suggest a mid/later top today: namely, the 45 TD (9 week or 2 month, 60 degree top) from May 4th, the possible 16+1 TD top from June 15 and the possible 4+1 from July 1, which creates a 25 TD or 5 week top from June 2.

 

I still expect higher prices today to touch the down trend channel (3950-55 ?) before we sell-off in earnest into Wednesday in Wave [a] of Z. On the fractal front, it is January 14, which was an up day. 

 

Bottom Line: higher prices beckon on the SPX today and a short is not welcome at this stage, just yet...



#9 slupert

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Posted 11 July 2022 - 12:53 PM

bacically I believe in what your saying in the long run, debt deflation is the end game. That can not be accomplished within a ST forecast. Even in 1929's crash it took years for the market to hit a bottom.



#10 MDurkin

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Posted 11 July 2022 - 02:10 PM

bacically I believe in what your saying in the long run, debt deflation is the end game. That can not be accomplished within a ST forecast. Even in 1929's crash it took years for the market to hit a bottom.

Exactly.