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I Suspect That...


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 02:17 PM

...we are no longer in a Bear Market.

In a Bear, you buy your Sells and sell your Buys. This market should have tanked by now, bit it's resilient and strong.

Pay attention to changes in character in the market. They're often markers of something important.

 

 


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#2 12SPX

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 02:34 PM

Hmmmmm -25% isn't tanking lol!!  My expiration cycle work says this won't be done till the market is down around -48% and will take at least 3-5 years of grinding before we even come close to new highs once again but the good news is that being an option seller I only go month to month and trade both sides. 



#3 pdx5

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 03:37 PM

Hmmmmm -25% isn't tanking lol!!  My expiration cycle work says this won't be done till the market is down around -48% and will take at least 3-5 years of grinding before we even come close to new highs once again but the good news is that being an option seller I only go month to month and trade both sides. 

I will not jump with both feet in this market before I see the inflation numbers drop to under 5%.

The timid FED have already signaled 0.75% increase and not follow Canada with full 100 basis points.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#4 andr99

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 04:09 PM

Hmmmmm -25% isn't tanking lol!!  My expiration cycle work says this won't be done till the market is down around -48% and will take at least 3-5 years of grinding before we even come close to new highs once again but the good news is that being an option seller I only go month to month and trade both sides. 

 

besides being both tennis players, we share the same point of view about the stock market. For me too we are just half way to the bear bottom..... 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 06:01 PM

Pay attention to changes in character in the market. They're often markers of something important.

 

I do that too...days later! LOL!



#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 09:24 AM

Even in very nasty Secular Bear Markets, Cyclical Bulls to occur. Could we see a 20% rally? Why not?

More usefully, are we trading like a Bear Market still? Not really. Will that persist? Well, that's the question. I'm certainly not jumping in with both feet, here, but I'm also not shorting.


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#7 K Wave

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 10:34 AM

all downside targets were hit with a near miss on trannies (which may have also been a signal)

 

TSLA pretty much tellin' us we are in bear rally action now...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 blustar

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 01:26 PM

I see this as a speculative bubble in tech stocks like TESLA. Look at the RS on the NDX relative to the NYSE as a whole. I think it ends badly sooner than you think!



#9 slupert

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Posted 25 July 2022 - 08:44 AM

Even in very nasty Secular Bear Markets, Cyclical Bulls to occur. Could we see a 20% rally? Why not?

More usefully, are we trading like a Bear Market still? Not really. Will that persist? Well, that's the question. I'm certainly not jumping in with both feet, here, but I'm also not shorting.

Thwe "bull market or Bear market", is the same thing as the "technical recession vs. recession. itsthe interpretation. A bear market can actually go higher than the bull market high. I think we do and hit my 5000 target, nut we go down first then up in september then down for God only kmows how long, but it coukd get ugly. JMHO



#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 July 2022 - 03:46 PM

This useful thing is to know if it's trading like a Bull or trading like a Bear. Very different things work in each.

 

The weekly is a long way from confirming a "Bull Market". But the price action and technicals confirm that we are in a "Bull Market Condition". I have no idea how long it lasts.

 

M


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