152 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Markets consolidating after an epic BULL RUN from the lows of 2022 (new lows later this year). 
Inflation report could be the catalyst for another leg of this rally to above ES 4250

 

China/Taiwan issues, China economy still struggling, Russia WINTER GAS SUPPLY issues, another COVID variant.... markets buffeted by all these non-TA matter. 

 

I still think market drops - rapidly and new lows made - during the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

 

However, there could be a faster economic RECOVERY, lower inflation, and a temporary resolution of the EUROPEAN GAS issue, which may add another ES 200 points to this rally. 

 

I am trading August in RISK OFF mode, mainly NQ daytrading, TLT CALLS, UVXY options, high-risk TESLA options, small QQQ & SPY POSITIONS

Edited by dTraderB, 07 August 2022 - 04:51 PM.

[dTraderB]

Still strong, extended, but bullish

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

FRIDAY was bullish and markets rapidly reversed -- as I posted before the 9:30am cash session began

 

BUT, markets have failed to break out above ES 4180 after there was at least 3 times they were near that level

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Aug 5

 

Closing update: Choppy Friday but #ES_F respecting the levels well, holding 4105 then basing above 4130 key lvl all day.

Bulls must hold to keep 4200 in play next week.

[dTraderB]

I think iNFLATION peaked, still not rapidly falling, but the worst is over on that front

I will continue trading TLT CALLS 

Unless there is a major geopolitical event my FF is a very bullish Q4

 

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

·

Aug 5

 

When you hear “sticky” inflation, it’s slower moving forms of inflation due to poor construct of US CPI v other countries. Not only does CPI UNDERSTATE shelter, it comes through w/a 5Q lag per

@FannieMae

giving Powell huge headache even as pump prices fall

[dTraderB]

He has been bullish before most... called it almost perfectly! 

But, I have never used this before:

"...the relationship between the XLY and XLP is one of the most important relationships in determining the sustainability of an S&P 500 rally or decline."

 

We're going higher. Sure, we'll have pullbacks along the way. Secular bull markets typically test their key moving averages like the 20-day EMA and/or 50-day SMA frequently, and I'll be looking for those in the weeks and months ahead. But it's looking much less likely that we'll see a double bottom to test the mid-June low.

There are one very important signal that tells me this rally is sustainable. Money continues to rotate into aggressive sectors. One way to illustrate this is to simply look at the 1-month returns of all sectors and check out the leaders:

https://stockcharts....and-fo-527.html

[dTraderB]

VERY bearish poll.... high job creation rate, low unemployment, higher wages are not VERY BEARISH! 

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  42.9%
•  

  DOWN

  57.1%

3,638 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

I voted BULLISH TECHNICALS but BEARISHness  prevails!  

 

This could be interpreted as ES 4250 early this week, then above ES 4300 after "good" below 8.5% inflation report !

 

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

23h

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  16.9%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  19.3%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  50%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  13.8%

1,101 votes·11 minutes left

 

 

 

VERY bearish poll.... high job creation rate, low unemployment, higher wages are not VERY BEARISH! 

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  42.9%
•  

  DOWN

  57.1%

3,638 votes·Final results

 

[dTraderB]

I voted BULLISH FUNDAMENTALS in this one:

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

23h

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  33.1%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  15.3%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  44.4%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  7.3%

744 votes·8 minutes left

[redfoliage2]

But the stock futures market looking for a gap down Monday.  The consolidation starting?

Edited by redfoliage2, 07 August 2022 - 05:28 PM.

[dTraderB]

Early hours so far ... from 3am the decisive market direction begins

 

I will buy if ES opens Monday 9;30am cash session below 4120. 

 

Consolidation should be finished by Tuesday and I expect ES to break out above 4180 or below 4100 

 

I also expect a huge rally if the inflation rate is reported below 8.7%

 

But the stock futures market looking for a gap down Monday.  The consolidation starting?