Jump to content



Photo

September LOWS beckon, Winter of Misery & Cold BUT the Sun will shine again


  • Please log in to reply
147 replies to this topic

#11 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:05 AM

EXTREMELY LOW! still below -300

Not necessarily contrarian, or an BOTTOM, but reversals - even if ST - start in this zone

 

McClellanOsc_1377.gif



#12 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:06 AM

More here, at the extreme .. but crashes also occur at extreme bearishness...

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

EXTREMELY LOW! still below -300

Not necessarily contrarian, or an BOTTOM, but reversals - even if ST - start in this zone

 

McClellanOsc_1377.gif



#13 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:08 AM

Gave up trading GOLD long ago... but this is interesting:

 

Sprott Physical Gold Trust As A Sentiment Tool
 

sprott_aug2022.gif

 

On Tuesday, Aug. 30, the discount below NAV was -1.96%, which is a pretty big negative reading. It is not the biggest ever, but it is a reading that is consistent with meaningful bottoms for gold prices.  A big negative spread comes about when owners of these shares think gold is headed lower, and they get motivated to sell, so they will accept a price well below the NAV.  The message is that “the crowd” thinks gold prices are going lower, and they are willing to take a big haircut just to have the privilege of getting out of these shares.  That is a sign that sentiment toward gold is pretty washed out, befitting a bottoming condition for gold prices.

You can track this data yourself at https://stockcharts..../ui?s=!PHYSPREM.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

https://www.mcoscill...sentiment_tool/



#14 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:10 AM

Not as bearish as last week... looks like a ST bounce but the global situation does not suggest such...

 

 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.3%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.7%
4,981 votes·Final results


#15 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:12 AM

Global shipping sector relative performance rolling over again, at risk of breaking down -- should expect this sector to underperform in the context of a weakening global economy
Another interesting macro-market chart, industrial metals taking another leg down... again this is consistent with all the soft data that shows weakening demand across much of the world.
 
 


#16 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:13 AM

BEARISH

 

 

 
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.1%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11.6%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    56%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    16.3%
1,194 votes·Final results
 
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.1%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11.6%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    56%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    16.3%
1,194 votes·Final results


#17 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,419 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:14 AM

Looks as if TLT will make new lows -- waiting patiently for that to ADD -- big position - to existing TLT CALLs

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    27.5%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    51.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    10.3%
852 votes·Final results


#18 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 14,372 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:25 AM

 

Looks as if TLT will make new lows -- waiting patiently for that to ADD -- big position - to existing TLT CALLs

 

 

First sign that 2 year may be done?

 

Historically, once the inversion starts to come off, Stock Indexes do not do well....

 

us2.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#19 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 14,372 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:27 AM

1 year super duper extended, and looking like it could be ripe as well...

 

us1.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#20 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 14,372 posts

Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:21 PM

Did BTC just fumble it's last attempt at 20K??

 

watchin' real close now for a breach of 19700


Edited by K Wave, 05 September 2022 - 10:22 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy