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Are all the bears SHORT?


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:04 AM

The NYSE Composite finally broke below 14,000 support and it's monthly 50 ma
The monthly 200 is waiting below at 10,000.
It has touched it 3 times since 2008

https://schrts.co/TdMGmBnm

 

 

There are a lot of bears but are they short?

For a month the #1 ranked contributor at Stockcharts has been saying: "It's probably too late to short"

 

TBF (Short 20 year Treasury) is exploding but lookiing a bit toppy.

https://schrts.co/uChajeXm

 

Meanwhile Mike Burk says:

"Seasonally, this negative period ends in a few weeks."


Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2022 - 11:19 AM.


#2 12SPX

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:09 AM

Totally agree, investors going short now are just asking for trouble if you ask me.  I do believe we have way more to go on the downside but its not gonna be a straight line this time.  Think your way better to average in long now as we move into October.....



#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:16 AM

Gene Inger used to say to avoid "shorting into the hole"

 

Gene Inger began investing at 13 years old, which led to his early career at a major Wall Street firm. He managed portfolios and anchored at KWHY-TV LA.
He is a semi-retired Registered Investment Advisor. The Inger Letter; covers markets, economics and geopolitics

 


#4 pdx5

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:29 AM

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

10 year bonds were hovering around 2.2% for a long time. Now it is 3.6% yield.

That is about 40% change.

Stocks (SPX) was at 4800, now at 3700. That is about 23% drop.

Stocks have some more drop to go to catch up with bonds.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:39 AM

Cheery news from around the world"

 

British pound plunges after new govt announces economic reforms...

Truss plan sends markets into meltdown...

BOFA Says Cash Is King as Investor Pessimism Hits 2008-Era High...

Stocks head for big losing week...

USA Inflating Debt Away...

Resurgent Bird Flu Wiping Out Egg, Turkey Supplies Across America...

 

And now for the good news!

Covid cases are nearly half of what they were in early July and WAY down from a year ago.

And deaths at 386, while a bit higher than July have been steadily dropping since a pre-Labor Day top at 507 deaths!

Cases-dropping.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2022 - 11:14 AM.


#6 K Wave

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:44 AM

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

You have that backwards.

 

The Fed has responded to interest rate increases, just have they have been doing up and down for a long while now.

And they are still a full point behind.

 

Was how I was 100% sure they would not stop in August, as some others opined.

 

Only a market crash might keep them from raising more in very early November.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 pdx5

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 12:04 PM

 

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

You have that backwards.

 

The Fed has responded to interest rate increases, just have they have been doing up and down for a long while now.

And they are still a full point behind.

 

Was how I was 100% sure they would not stop in August, as some others opined.

 

Only a market crash might keep them from raising more in very early November.

 

 

FED is cornered like a rat with inflation not budging. If inflation continues higher than 8% through December, 

FED will increase rates this year, there is no doubt in my mind about it, even if market makes lower lows than in June.

Stock market crash (meaning greater than 5% drop in one day) is unlikely. 2% drop is about all on any one day.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule